I just submitted this. Seems like the Pads dead real well here. I wasn't expecting Latos to move.

I personally think Cinci overpaid for Latos. He is a fine pitcher, but they gave up a lot of young talent, and aren't getting an "Ace". Latos makes a nice psuedo-#1 right now, but I don't see him as a dominant pitcher yet. And moving out of Petco will make his numbers look worse.

Also, where does Alonso play? Are the Padres planning on moving him or Rizzo to LF? Do they now move one of the two for another piece? Playing either in LF sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, and they don't have a DH spot to hide one of them in.

Alonso's minor league stats are not nearly as good as I thought they would be.

Still, if we have to judge this right now (which is of course stupid), I call it a win for SD. One can certainly envision it working out for Cincy, though. Latos is really good, and he only has two years of service time. And there are question marks about everyone SD got: Volquez has a bad injury record and really only has the one good year, Alonso as described, Grandal is a catcher and they develop oddly, Boxberger is a reliever with one good year out of two in the minors. With four guys, though, I think SD has put the odds in its favor. If both Alonso and Grandal become quality regulars, it's tough to argue with that, and Volquez/Boxberger give them some "trade win" possibilities even beyond that. And naturally, Latos is not going to put up the same raw statline in Cincy as he did in SD, and SD will have a relatively easier time finding someone who at least approaches that statline.

Also, SD now has to trade Anthony Rizzo, and get something good for him at that. Playing Alonso somewhere besides 1B would waste most of his value.

Latos OPS against

Home: .635
Away: .637

His whip and strikeout numbers are almost identical and he's actually pitched more innings on the road than at home.

latos is really, really good.


i think boxberger is just a guy and alonso isn't great, though his OBP-heavy statline should be tailor-made for petco. grandal looks very good, but cinci has mesoraco. volquez is a lottery ticket, but with latos going in, he's really not much of a loss to cinci going out.


it's a good deal for san diego--and it's a good deal for the players who are going to san diego--and if cincinnati really thinks they're in a position to make the playoffs, they're not losing much immediate production.

Also, SD now has to trade Anthony Rizzo, and get something good for him at that. Playing Alonso somewhere besides 1B would waste most of his value.

Seems like they'd do better to re-flip Alonso to someone else, given that he's hugely overrated and not nearly as good a prospect as Rizzo.

Lot's of potential for SD, could be a big win.

I think it's worth the risk given where they are.

I think Reds gave up too much.Like it for the Padres.

Interesting trade. Latos is real good, but I wouldn't have given up that much for him.

Seems like they'd do better to re-flip Alonso to someone else, given that he's hugely overrated and not nearly as good a prospect as Rizzo.

What's so great about Rizzo?

Rizzo's mLB stat lines by wRC+ are A+:120,123, AA: 120, AAA 149 (with a .369 BABIP)
Alonso's are A+: 153, AA: 134, 121, AAA: 125,131

Alonso has a much better K-rate, and a similar BB-rate. Rizzo's advantage is ISO, and if a hitter is going to develop anything, it's power.

I'd flip either one, maybe to TB, if I could get a good young arm.

Rizzo made the majors in his age 21 season. Alonso was drafted in his age 21 season is three years older.

In all fairness to the Reds, Alonso and Grandal were both blocked positionally. Grandal is probably blocked for six years, so that does reduce both players' value to the Reds. I still think the Reds overpaid, but it's not as bad as it first looks.

Of course I still think Jocketty should have dealt Votto for a package of prospects and put Alonso at first base. The Reds could have hopefully saved enough money to lock down Phillips for another four years and extended their window for contention by a few years.

I think Reds gave up too much.Like it for the Padres.

I echo the consensus here. Seeing the headline my first though was, "Wow, nice move by the Reds to acquire Latos. They could be contenders in the Central." But giving up Volquez, Alonso, and others seems like an awfully high price. Still a decent shot to be a win-win, though.

Seems like that package could have yielded more. I like latos just fine but it seems like a "4 quarters for a dollar" trade where the dollar might be worth 75 cents.

Rizzo made the majors in his age 21 season. Alonso was drafted in his age 21 season is three years older.

He made the majors and was embarrassed. 30.1% K-rate. 141/281/242 line. 59 wRC+. Only 153 PAs, sure. But still ugly.

I don't think that's a point in his favor. If you stuck Alonso in MLB straight out of the draft, I doubt he does any worse.

More like 2 yrs. 4 month.

Alonso in a similarly small sample (98 PAs) went nuts. 330/398/545 160 wRC+. 21.4% K-%, 10.2 BB-%.

If i had to guess, I'd say Alonso's the better hitter right now. Similar minor league numbers, much better contact skills, similar BB-skills, and wasn't embarrassed by MLB pitching.

Maybe Rizzo has more upside b/c of age. But I think that's limited by the poor contact skills. Guys who K 20% of the time in the low minors worry me.

The Reds paid a lot, but they also have a farm system that's pretty well stocked with close-to-MLB talent with many of those guys blocked at their positions, and they have a MLB roster without a lot of holes other than top-flight MLB pitching, so it makes sense for them to cash those chips in for a guy like Latos. Frankly, I'm not real high on Alonso, I think Grandal's upside is okay for a catcher, Volquez is a bit erratic although I've long been a fan and I do like Boxberger, but his upside is a future closer. But Latos is young, cost-controlled, not a product of Petco, and a frontline guy. And you potentially have a two-year window here where you have one of the best hitters in the NL, so now is the time to make your move. So I think its a great move for the Reds.

The Pads get a lot of guys that can fill holes and help them achieve their goal of fielding a young low payroll team. I don't really get them. I get the A's and the Rays are trying to keep costs low because of a bad ballpark, but the taxpayers of San Diego built the Pads a gorgeous stadium downtown in a beautiful area and this is how they repay the fans. The NL West is wide open and the NL frankly is kinda wide open too. You put AGone and Latos on this team and add a FA like Jose Reyes - that isn't a contender? Padres fans should be irate.

Of course I still think Jocketty should have dealt Votto for a package of prospects and put Alonso at first base. The Reds could have hopefully saved enough money to lock down Phillips for another four years and extended their window for contention by a few years.

Totally disagree. Spend the money on Votto, not Phillips. But, they can afford both.

Latos is very talented, as noted, and cost-controlled, as noted. Adding in the positional issues, I can see what Jocketty was thinking. But the price is high, and I believe Votto will test the market regardless of what Jocketty does.

I REALLY love this deal for the Padres. I liked it well enough when I didn't even realize that Grandal was in the deal, but with both Alonso and Grandal? I saw enough of both of Alonso in Louisville, and am high enough on Grandal, to be convinced that that is an excellent return on Latos. Boxberger needs to throw strikes, but he's got a good chance to give them useful innings help them replenish their bullpen.

Which isn't to say it's not a good deal for the Reds; how often can you get high-quality, low-cost, well-proven major league starting pitching on the trade market? That has to be seen as a good, solid return on your minor league assets -- and a strong endorsement of the quality of the Reds' farm system that it has the kind of quality and depth that it can produce guys like Mesoraco and Cozart to help the Reds directly, and these guys to trade. Impressive.

I like latos just fine but it seems like a "4 quarters for a dollar" trade where the dollar might be worth 75 cents.

Well, this might turn out to be true, but I think a young and healthy starter that strikes out one per inning is probably just about worth his weight in gold. Any team would be real happy to land Latos, and I think the Reds have a solid chance of winning the trade.

I think that this is a trade that will benefit both teams. While this may seem a lot for the Reds to have given up, these are pieces that would not likely have helped them all that much. Alonso was still looking for a position and his minor league numbers were not as impressive as one may have expected. Grandal is behind Mesoraco and was blocked. Volquez has a lot of question marks and was terrible last year.

While each of these parts may be intriguing, they were traded to one of the better young pitchers in the game who was not a product of Petco and is cost controlled. I think this is a deal that makes sense for both sides.

Why do you think there has been a rash of deals involving good young frontline pitchers with 2+ years of cost-controlled years left - Haren, Greinke, Garza, Ubaldo, Cahill, now Latos. Such players used to be hoarded like gold at a Tea Party rally. Now they can be had for the right price. Gio Gonzalez will probably be next. What is the reasoning?

But the price is high, and I believe Votto will test the market regardless of what Jocketty does.

The Jocketty should pay market price for him.

I'd offer him a 6/150 extension right now and make him think.

Why do you think there has been a rash of deals involving good young frontline pitchers with 2+ years of cost-controlled years left - Haren, Greinke, Garza, Ubaldo, Cahill, now Latos. Such players used to be hoarded like gold at a Tea Party rally. Now they can be had for the right price. Gio Gonzalez will probably be next. What is the reasoning?

Injury fears?

Snapper, as a Reds fan I'd love to see Jocketty extend Votto, but I remain skeptical. The Reds constantly say they have no money, and I don't think Walt is going to pay market price for him. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

Why do you think there has been a rash of deals involving good young frontline pitchers with 2+ years of cost-controlled years left - Haren, Greinke, Garza, Ubaldo, Cahill, now Latos. Such players used to be hoarded like gold at a Tea Party rally. Now they can be had for the right price. Gio Gonzalez will probably be next. What is the reasoning?

Injury fears?

I think it's pretty simple - every one of those teams that traded those guys were in tough financial spots and didn't consider themselves contenders. (I assume you mean the first Garza trade, although the second obviously qualifies for the financial provision.) They're young pitchers, which means everyone thinks they're injury prone, yet you can still get a lot for them and they're about to get expensive. The day Boston starts moving Jon Lester for prospects, or the Angels move Weaver, then we'll know something's up.

(I assume you mean the first Garza trade, although the second obviously qualifies for the financial provision.)

I mean the Garza to the Cubs deal.

I think this is probably right, although the Haren (to the Angels) and Ubaldo deals don't quite fit that theory.

Also, why wasn't this done before? Obviously we've had teams in tight financial conditions with good young pitchers before.

He made the majors and was embarrassed. 30.1% K-rate. 141/281/242 line. 59 wRC+. Only 153 PAs, sure. But still ugly.

I don't think that's a point in his favor. If you stuck Alonso in MLB straight out of the draft, I doubt he does any worse.

There's also the portion of the year that Rizzo spent at AAA, where he was one of the best hitters in the minors. .331/.404/.652 as a 21-year-old in AAA. Could Alonso have done that as a 21-year-old at that level? Nothing in his record suggests he would've been capable of it.

Alonso has a much better K-rate, and a similar BB-rate. Rizzo's advantage is ISO, and if a hitter is going to develop anything, it's power.

Alonso's going to be 25 next year, and his single-season high for HR is 17. For a power-hitting first base prospect, he hasn't shown much in-game power. Maybe he can rely on walks and OBP, and be the next Daric Barton. That sure worked out well for Daric Barton, didn't it?

A solid deal for both clubs. The added bonus for the Padres is that they can now deal Nick Hundley, who is just hitting arbitration and should bring back a very good return. I'd imagine Tampa Bay would be all over him (and the Padres' many young 1B prospects) and could send back young starting pitching in return.

I think Reds gave up too much.Like it for the Padres.

So it's safe to say you have mixed feelings on it.

Pads GM Josh Byrnes:

Rizzo will be in the minors. Alonso is a 1B, not a LF.

Grandal will be in the minors. Hundley will be starting catcher.

Four teams had a package the Pads were willing to work with - Reds had the best offer.

Alonso's going to be 25 next year, and his single-season high for HR is 17. For a power-hitting first base prospect, he hasn't shown much in-game power. Maybe he can rely on walks and OBP, and be the next Daric Barton. That sure worked out well for Daric Barton, didn't it?

Perhaps the Padres hope to have the same luck that they had in acquiring Adrian Gonzalez from the Rangers. Although Gonzalez was well regarded as a prospect, I recall that the prospect scouting reports at the time projected him as a line drive hitting 1st baseman rather than a HR hitter. Gonzalez never hit more than 18 HRs in a season in the minors. Gonzalez's minor league career OBP and SLG was .365 and .448, respectively. Before Gonzalez was traded to the Padres at age 24, he had two brief seasons at the major league level for the Rangers which were not overly impressive and in which he showed almost no power. I'm not saying that this means Alonso will turn into Gonzalez, but I do see some analogies.

Why do you think there has been a rash of deals involving good young frontline pitchers with 2+ years of cost-controlled years left - Haren, Greinke, Garza, Ubaldo, Cahill, now Latos. Such players used to be hoarded like gold at a Tea Party rally. Now they can be had for the right price. Gio Gonzalez will probably be next. What is the reasoning?

The fact that they're so highly valued may be the reason that it's happening. Teams know that trading them can bring back a significant return so letting a good young pitcher go is an easy way to gain multiple players to fill holes.

So you're saying you like it and dislike it.

You seem to have a problem with my liking two teams. Just don't cuss me out and call me a fat troll and we'll be fine, though. ;-

And not entirely. I think Jocketty sees it this way:

Pujols is gone
Fielder may well be gone
Braun may miss a chunk of season
The Pirates are still working on it and are not there
The Cubs will probably move methodically under the new management team and not make a big 2012 push
He has Mesoraco and Votto

Adding it up, Jocketty figures this is a good moment to go for a division title, and Latos can help him do that--cheaply.

I am skeptical that a division title will keep Votto in town, however.

#34

I don't think a division title will keep Votto in town, but an increase in revenues might. The fans were slow to respond to the 2010 division crown after a decade of terrible ownership and baseball. Maybe they would be more willing to come out to the stadium if it looks like the success might stick around a while?

Regarding Votto, folks have to listen to Robin here. The few times I have heard Joey interviewed and this topic comes up he doesn't dance around it. He says flat out he is testing the market.

I don't know anything, but I sense there is something lurking between him and the Reds and the boy is carrying some kind of ill will. Grudge is too strong a word.

Anyway, that boy has set his jaw and made a plan. And that plan doesn't seem to include the Reds.

Testing the market doesn't have to mean ruling out the Reds. It just has to mean the Reds need to step up and be market participants.

Sam

True. But if you listen the boy that ain't his underlying message.

It's more along the lines of, "F*ck these f*cking guys, I am SO leaving this f*cking place"

I don't get the Alonso hate - he may not be the next Joey Votto but he seems like he can be a high average, 15-20 home run guy with a good eye at the plate - which would be perfectly fine for a team like the Padres.

And robin or traderdave is free to correct my interpretation of the radio interviews.

Others reds fans I wouldn't lend much credence. Too many think cincy is a great town for baseball.

Lars

He is sure is one clumsy guy with a glove on his hand.

Wallbangers

Reds fan here, and I agree with you. I think Joey would rather go somewhere else all things equal, so the Reds are going to have to match the dollar amount and show that they mean business when it comes to winning.

He is sure is one clumsy guy with a glove on his hand.

As a left-fielder, he's a mighty fine DH.

As a first baseman, he's passable. If the Padres play him there, his defense won't detract from his value, and his offensive value (as a line drive, all-fields hitter in Petco) will be optimized. Alonso will be a very fine player for San Diego.

It's more along the lines of, "F*ck these f*cking guys, I am SO leaving this f*cking place"

Can you blame a man wanting to get out of a town 20 years behind the times?

I don't get the Alonso hate - he may not be the next Joey Votto but he seems like he can be a high average, 15-20 home run guy with a good eye at the plate - which would be perfectly fine for a team like the Padres.

I think the "hate" is a reaction to the (over) enthusiasm for him. He hit exceptionally well in the majors this year, but that performance far exceeded anything he did in the minors. After the trade, I e-mailed a Reds fan I work with and he called Alonso a better hitter than Bruce. There's just nothing there to support that kind of opinion, other than the 83 ridiculous PAs he had against righties at the end of 2011. And even putting up those numbers, he struck out 17 times...

Why do you think there has been a rash of deals involving good young frontline pitchers with 2+ years of cost-controlled years left

Because those guys are now SO valuable that you can get multiple high level prospects for them - the other current gold standard of player on the market these days.

True. But if you listen the boy that ain't his underlying message.

It's more along the lines of, "F*ck these f*cking guys, I am SO leaving this f*cking place"

Harvey, interesting. What are your thoughts on why he feels this way? Is it because Cinci's a "town 20 years behind the times"? Dusty Baker? Wants big time smoozing and free-agent cash?

Because those guys are now SO valuable that you can get multiple high level prospects for them - the other current gold standard of player on the market these days.

I was thinking about this, but it's sort of a microeconomic puzzle. Does it matter how much they're valued? If they are considered less valuable, then teams will be more willing to move them for lesser packages. If more valuable, teams will want to hold onto them more, but other teams will want them even more, and offer bigger packages.

I keep reading on twitter that Latos is a head case. What's that all about?

I keep reading on twitter that Latos is a head case. What's that all about?

He has had that rep since high school. I think he might have been kicked off his high school team. Something happened that made Oklahoma pull their scholarship offer from him, I believe.