Tuesday, May 21, 2013
WaPo | Ryan Mattheus breaks throwing hand punching a locker, adds to bullpen disarray
(www.washingtonpost.com)
posted 2 days ago by Coot Veal and Cot Deal make $486 every day to dumbness, nationals
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15 comment(s)
The disarray in the Nationals’ bullpen reached a bizarre and self-inflicted new height Monday night. After the Nationals’ 8-0 loss to the Giants, Manager Davey Johnson revealed that set-up man Ryan Mattheus had broken his right hand Sunday when he punched his locker after a dreadful performance, landing him on the disabled list and leaving the Nationals scrambling for fresh arms.
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1. Shooty is in the Trust TreePending physical.
I vaguely remember reading an old study that having a solid hitting pitcher -- someone like Livan in his prime -- was the equivalent of something like .2-.3 runs of ERA.
If by hit you mean hit like Babe or the Man, then yes they will alway be more valuable as position players.
It's a very relative term though. Dan Haren can hit well for a pitcher. He's worth several runs per year (playing in the NL at least) more than a typical crappy hitting pitcher. But his bat isn't anywhere near good enough to hold a position job.
Rick Ankiel was a great hitting pitcher, and useful position player for a few years. He would have been a lot more valuable though if he had retained his ability to throw strikes.
The Nats pitchers were incredible hitters last year. Collectively they hit .164/.208/.221 vs. a league average of .129/.162/.168, which is a 162 OPS+ relative to position. Strasburg, Zimmerman and Jackson were all in the top 10 wRC+ for pitchers with 40 PA. Zimmerman and Haren have good (~30-40 wRC+) track records, Strasburg obviously does not.
The Nats had 244 PA as PH (not just for the pitcher). The other 15 teams average 354 PA.
I think the answer is that it's really hard to hit major league pitching and most pitchers don't start with the requisite abilities. (since it's not what they're selected for)
Literally for decades the Reds tried to gain an advantage at the major league level by forgoing the DH in the minors. It just never translated to anything useful at the major league level.
I've often wondered though about taking position players who have a good work ethic but are about to wash out and trying to make them a knuckleballer. Oh the success rate would be very low but how many successes would you need?
Tom House (in Diamond Appraised) argues that there's no room for any such trials on minor league rosters but that strikes me as obvious nonsense. Every team has a certain number of NPs in their organization. You might have to move a guy down the chain, but most players will do what it takes to stay in the game.
Is that a good thing? I'd imagine a PH would hit better than .164/.208/.221 and I would assume that a RP would do better against the lineup that has cycled through a 3rd time through.
-- MWE
They're the top of the list guys. I'm more thinking about guys like Brock Kjeldgaard or Micah Owings (or, yes, Rick Ankiel after he started to be bad at pitching)--not very good pitchers. Musial would have been in this bucket too if not for the really excellent hitting, as he was also a minor league conversion.
Aren't position player to pitcher conversions a lot more commonplace than the other way around? Although it's more in the cases of great arm (not necessarily velocity, but it does help) with good control, but can't hit over .200 in the low minors....
So, no Greinke then for the Nats. The Dodgers seem the obvious choice for him
I still don't see this. They already have Beckett, Billingsley, Kershaw, Harang, Capuano and Lilly (if the arm still works) under contract. Obviously "too many" starters is an easy problem to solve but it's not a logical landing spot.
They don't really have a great #2 guy after Kershaw (unless odd-year Beckett returns.) And Capuano should be incredibly easy to trade if they want.
Also, they have a ridiculous amount of money burning a hole in their pocket and are spending it like it's going out of style. I agree it's not a very logical landing spot, but the Dodgers are not behaving very logically these days.
Seems that way. I can think of a number of position player to pitcher conversions (Pedro Strop, Sergio Santos, Doolittle, one of the Tony Penas, probably more) but in the other direction, not as many.
Ankiel is the major one. Adam Loewen made it to the 2011 Jays as an OF, but played only in the minors for 2012, and not particularly well. I wonder if Micah Owings will give it a try. Still has a SLG over .500 in the big leagues. In the minors, he played one game at 1B and one at DH this year - the first time in his pro career he played something other than pitcher.
Kenley Jansen, Jason Motte, Yhency Brazoban, Brian N. Anderson, Travis Schlichting, Matt West, Billy Rowell.
Carlos Marmol, Tim Wakefield, and D.J. Carrasco, too.
Brian Bogusevic. Turn-of-the-century star Buck Freeman. Minor league home run champ Buzz Arlett. Smokey Joe Wood, of course.
Word here in Pittsburgh is that the Dodgers are trying to move Capuano to the Pirates.
I also don't know why they'd be afraid to pay Jackson $13.3 million and give Haren more. Haren is throwing in the high 80's and gave up a ton of homers.
Well in 2011 Jackson had a 3.79 ERA (108 ERA+) and had to settle for a 1-year deal for 11 million. In 2012 he had a 4.03 ERA (98 ERA+). So 1 year for 13.3 would seem like an overpay.
Dave Stieb was 110 PA into his minor league OF career before they switched him to pitching.
He then had one AB in 1980 in the majors, and never had another plate appearance for the rest of his career.
Well in 2011 Jackson had a 3.79 ERA (108 ERA+) and had to settle for a 1-year deal for 11 million. In 2012 he had a 4.03 ERA (98 ERA+). So 1 year for 13.3 would seem like an overpay.
But it's only a risk that he'll accept and he has a short deadline in which to accept. Haren carries all the warning signs of Jackson if not more -- drop in velocity and a TERRIBLE 2012. Haren is also 3 years older. Haren does have more upside of course. But if Jackson would be an extra pitcher, what's Haren?
But I'm not saying they should have wanted Jackson over Haren -- it's a close call in my book. I'm saying they make a QO to Jackson and the worst-case scenario is they end up with him instead of Haren on essentially the same contract. The alternative is they end up with Haren and an extra draft pick. That worst-case scenario isn't very scary and had a relatively low chance of occurring.
Now, fair enough, if they suspect Jackson isn't going to pass any team's physical then it makes sense not to make the QO.
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