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Mark Ellis doesn't hit
How do the park factors compare?
The Mets Lineup Can Compete With The Dodgers
I don't see that much of a gap between the Mets and Dodgers offenses. Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez no longer project as plus players, Mark Ellis doesn't hit, AJ Ellis' power is probably a Brady Anderson fluke, and they currently have replacement-level nobodies at 3B or SS, whichever one Hanley isn't playing.**
The article doesn't delve into the starting rotations. On paper, the Dodgers seem to have the best starting pitching in baseball, no?
Meanwhile, the Mets have Lucas Duda and Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who at the top of their range—and both are the right age to play there—will be average or better-than-average players.
Skip Schumaker will probably be platooning with Ellis, which should make 2B more productive.
As for Lawrie versus Cowgill, the difference in how both are viewed is a product of the age difference between the two prospects. For Cowgill, 2012 will be his age-26 season and it’s a generally accepted fact that a player’s prime begins at 26. This means Cowgill will be learning the ropes at the Major League level while already in his prime, so Collin Cowgill at 500 plate appearances may very well be similar to Collin Cowgill at 1,500 plate appearances or more. Beyond making minor adjustments to his approach at the game’s highest level, room for maturation both physically and mentally is limited due to his advanced age.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, projecting Brett Lawrie for 500-600 plate appearances during his age-22 through -25 seasons leaves him with a projected 2,000+ plate appearances to grow and adjust both physically and mentally at the big league level before entering his prime. This drastically increases the likelihood Lawrie becomes an impact player at the Major League level. Like any profession, the longer one is able to compete and learn at its highest level, the better the prime of the career is likely to be.
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