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The Royals now have a 1.80 ERA for the month and lead the league in ERA. Its amazing what an effect new hitting instructor George Brett has had!
Meh, by the end of the season we'll have forgotten that the Royals were challenging .500 this late.
NATS AND DAVEY
Boz you know much more about baseball than any of us and Davey is a HOF'er and I love him for what he did last year. And I was 14 in B'More when he was a rookie in 66 and the O's won it all (BTW with 33 consecutive scoreless innings against the Dodgers - a record that will never be broken). But....I think the Nats should kick him upstairs and let Randy Knorr take over to try to take the pressure off the hitters....the WS or Bust attitude is drowning this season. I know you think they can still turn it around but after yesterday and Friday night I'm about done....I hope you're right but......
– June 16, 2013 5:51 PM
Davey's not the problem. Or, in the sense that everybody is part of the problem, he's not the central element in fixing the problem.
And the problem is offense. That's it. That's all. But that's a TON when you have fallen from 10th in scoring to 29th with a lineup that is very similar or -- with Rendon now at second and Harper hitting much higher (when healthy) than he did as a rookie -- looks like it might be better on paper.
So, what SHOULD the Nats lineup be producing? And will it start (soon, even) to hit to that level.
For years I've always had the same method for predicting (roughly) how many runs a team will score.
An MLB team will score about as many runs in a season as there are points in its team OPS. If the team OPS is .750, as the Nats were last year, they ought to score about 750 runs. In fact, they scored 731 -- close enough for guesstimating purposes.
This is a statistical fluke. There is no "theory" behind it. It just works. Year after year. Also, for teams with very high OPS there seems to be some synergy at work. A .780 OPS might tend to produce 800 runs. And for very low team OPS, like the Nats niserable, there is some "anchor" effect of everybody dragging everybody else down. The Nats OPS is .666 yet they are on pace for an insanely low 565 runs. They are choking in clutch situations to as great a degree as you will ever see. Yesterday was a perfect example: first and third, no outs = no runs. First and third, no outs = no runs. Bases loaded, no outs = no runs.
How do you figure out, roughly, what a team's OPS SHOULD be? The eight regulars in the lineup (in the N.L.) get about 2/3 of all at abts. The pitchers get about 300 ABs with an OPS of maybe .425. The bench gets the rest with an OPS usually between .650 and .675.
I made sensible estimates of what the Nats OPS should be -- based on entire careeror recent years, whichever made more sense. Werth, for example, isn't the old Werth. He's maybe a .750-to-.775 player now. (.800 last year). Zimmerman isn't the .900 hitter he was for a couple of years -- more like .820. Harper isn't as good as his '13 OPS. Etc.
Here the point: NOT MATTER HOW MODEST YOUR ASSUMPTIONS, the Nats should score about .450-to-4.75 runs a game for a whole season. Currently, it's 3.49. That's incredible. It's almost a statistical "long tail" event, like a '29 crash in the stock market. It shouldn't be possible for them to be this bad. But they are.
1) If they revert to normal production for the full-year '13, they will errupt with one of the biggest run splurges you've ever seen -- more than 5.00 runs a game the rest of the season, perhaps after Harper gets back, with Rendon hitting No. 2.
I don't believe that. Too optimistic. But if it happened, you'd probably see the Nats end up with 92-to-94 wins.
2) The Nats simply get back to the 4.5-to-.4.7 range the rest of the season. If they do, I won't bore you with the arithmetic (it's not worthy of being called "math"), they'd probably end up with 88-to-90 wins and, mostly likely, be the last wild card. Though they might miss it.
3) They keep hitting like this all year in defiance of their own past performance. Well, then they are a .500 team with first-rate pitching that goes to waste. And if, at some point, they get sufficiently demoralized, they might even be a losing team. I also doubt that scenario.
Objectively, imo, if they were a team from 1,000 miles away, I'd saw, "Watch out for this team if it starts to hit because it might go nuts the rest of the year."
Subjectively, I'd say, "What a bunch of bums. If they can gag at the plate for 68 games, they can keep right on doing it."
Most likely, they hit a LOT better but they have dug a hole from which they will have to keep digging themselves for the rest of the season.
– June 17, 2013 11:03 AM
And his opponent, Travis Wood, is on pace for a 108-pitch no-hitter.
Last season was just plain fun, a "Why Not?" season. This season...not so much fun.
If Pete Kozma fought the Devil himself, who would 38 and 39 root for?
For the first time in Shelby Miller's career, he fails to pitch into the 6th inning of a start, as Matheny lifts him after 5 shutout innings and 83 pitches; Miller apparently had a cramp in his leg earlier in the game and there was some worry that he might alter his mechanics in favoring the leg.
You know I dislike the win stat, but I still wish that the players I like, get them.
We forgive you as we know that your logic is uncertain where your team is concerned.
I haven't seen the replay yet, but from the original live broadcast, it looked like Molina was out by a mile.
Weird, they are making the runners go back. That's strange.
That is another horrible call, but it was an attempt by the ump to make up for the call to the Cubs.
That makes him an Even-Worse umpire. If you #### it up, you #### it up, you admit to it as you throw the opposing manager out of the game, and you get on with it. You don't then go on to make it up.
Buy him a steak dinner or a pack of cigarettes if you're a cheap ass. Or something. But you don't reinvent the rules of baseball on the fly.
I feel ashamed at the horrid things I'm wishing upon that homeplate ump in St. Louis.
Evan Gattis just broke his bat... on the backswing.
OK, finally looked it up. HP Ump is DJ Reyburn. Not a name I've heard before,
Reyburn was umpiring in the Dominican League in 2009-2010 when he became the center of media attention on January 16. He ejected Licey Tigers catcher Ronny Paulino for arguing balls and strikes, then was attacked by Licey manager José Offerman. Offerman had to be removed by the police and was banned for life from the Dominican League for the assault.
Bourjos now has as many steals as HRs on the season. It's a 3:3 ratio.
Shouldn't it be more like 3:15? He's hitting .317 on the season.
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