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Has the rest of the AL East gotten _that much_ better?
But I think inside the game really there is not a team that doesn’t look at stats and take stats seriously and do advanced things with stats that we don’t even know about. I think the whole stats vs. scouts debate has tended to be overblown probably from the start and especially now.
That's what I don't get.
A debate between stats guys and scouts is a wonderful idea. Has that ever happened before?
Projection systems do not and should not care what the team dud last year. They have no knowledge of that as it is irrelevant. They look at the team as it is constructed today and how the players on the team project and that is that.
and made a lot of us look wrong.
I guess that's what I thought I was doing. The team as it is constituted today consists in large measure of the team as it was constituted in the second half of 2012; that group of players hit and pitched at a somewhat over .500 level, and are projected to play about equally well this year (at least according to Lindbergh.)
It seems like this year's AL East is one of the hardest divisions to predict in recent years.
I've seen this asserted in pretty much every thread on the Orioles we've had in the last 8-10 months, but has a serious study been done on year-to-year correlation of team record in one-run games? I would assume that there has been and I just haven't seen it.
Not sure if it qualifies as "serious," but here's a recent one.
I'll say again that I don't see the logic of looking at one-run games as an indicator of anything.
If you want to say that the distribution of run differential for the O's was strange given their RS-RA that's fine but look at the whole distribution. Basically, you need to argue that the O's had more 1-run wins than expected but not at the cost of 2+ run wins ... and that their few one-run losses was not due to having more 2+ run losses than expected. This essentially follows from pythag vs. actual for the O's but deviations from pythag don't have to be about 1-run wins.
Can you tell me what "R" stands for above? I didnt read the article so let me know if it's there. Also is that figure of .0137 signifcant in your opinion? Jes trying to follow the discussion, thanks for any input.
For 1980 to 2011 it is 0.008.
So the question is - what can a team do to improve their fortunes in One-Run games? Is that the million-dollar question?
Be a better team.
(or very unbalanced -- a team with studs and duds in the bullpen should do well in one run games if the manager does a good job of identifying the studs. Tricky to study though) bullpen.
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