Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Neyer: Computing Manny Machado’s shot at the record
(www.baseballnation.com)
The Machado (2013) - The Criterion Collection.
Read More...Yesterday, Bill James wrote (subscriber-only) about Manny Machado’s chances of breaking the all-time, single-season double record. Here’s the meat, or rather the top and bottom buns; I snipped out most of the mathematical meat:
Manny Machado has hit 31 doubles through the Orioles’ first 71 games. At that pace he would hit 73 doubles this season, which would break the major league record for doubles in a season, which is 67 (Earl Webb, ...
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1. JJ1986 posted on January 16, 2013 at 11:01 AM # hit 0 | hit 0What?
It's on a 3 year upward trend with a minor bump in year 2.
On average, as would be expected, these players improved their walk rate through their peak seasons, from 5.5% to 6.7%. None became prolific base-takers, but a few (Harold Baines, Sammy Sosa, Brian McRae, and Warren Cromartie) improved over the 10% threshold, and Jose Cardenal came pretty close. Most of the guys on the list didn't improve much - Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Jeff Francoeur, Vernon Wells, Juan Gonzalez, Bill Buckner. So there's hope, but not a whole ton.
I thought there might be a correlation between power and improved walk rate - Willie Wilson and Bill Buckner had little power and little improvement in walk rate - but obviously no one hit for power like Rice and JuanGone, and for the whole sample there's no correlation at all.
There is, however, a powerful correlation between zero improvement in walk rate and the inability to lay off the ######### slider low and away.
I moved away slowly, not turning my back on him. Haven't spoken to him since.
Perhaps it's the lack of light in my mother's basement, but this is not what it makes me think. It makes me think Mr. Jones is just about as funky as he can be and perhaps due for some regression to his mean.
-ISO- walk rate
0.000 07.6%
0.100 08.3%
0.200 10.2%
0.300 13.5%
In general, walk rate increases wiht ISO squared.
Guys like Sosa and BigMac and Bonds obviously drew many more BBs as their power went up.
Yes, the arrow of causality could run both ways.
It's the player who spells it incorrectly.
this childish projection is what republicans do with the national debt!
heh. Go back 4 years:
.335, .325, .319, .334
then an equally plausible narrative can be "His OBP had been trending downward, but last year he arrested that fall."
There's your mistake right there. Far as I can tell, there's only one.
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