Primer’s own Mr. Megdal takes a break from his contractually obligated ball-busting of the Wilpons to point out that Serious You Guys, the Orioles really are a pretty solid team now:
Read More...BALTIMORE—A pair of diametrically opposed views exists about the Baltimore Orioles, 2012’s winner of 93 games and a playoff spot, off to another strong start in 2013.
Outside the Baltimore area, skeptics abound. Sure, the Orioles won 93 games, but their Pythagorean record—a measure of expected wins and losses based ...
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1. JJ1986 posted on August 15, 2012 at 09:57 AM # hit 0 | hit 0Don't lots and lots of great prospects flame out? I think it's a stretch to say that a rushed prospect who flames out flamed out because he was rushed. I haven't done the research, but I would guess that he's more likely than not to flame out anyway.
And 3 of the 6 (or 2 of the 5) were successful and J-Hey looks like he will be.
edit: He did say "out of high school", so technically Harper doesn't count.
Eric Hosmer is another.
Even if he is overmatched, that can be a good thing. Mike Trout obviously took the lessons he learned last year to heart. I can see not wanting to rush a pitcher because pitching in the bigs may cause him to overthrow to the point of injury or lose confidence in a big time way. But I just don't see much of an issue with hitters. If he's not ready, he at least gets to see why he's not ready and can work on that next year in AAA.
This was a sweet move by the O's, he's helped the team so far, and yes, eventually pitchers will figure him out and he will have to adjust.
He had obvious plate discipline issues that plagued him his whole career, and one wonders whether he might have fared better being given a couple of years at AAA to focus on learning the strike zone. And it's not like the 2001 Cubs were fighting to get into the postseason. I think they called him up because there was general excitement about having the first decent Cub position player prospect in about 15 years.
(It's all speculation, of course. He might never have amounted to anything, or he might have overcome his strike zone issues and become a .300 hitter with 25 HR power and good speed.)
I think there are 3 reasons why "rushing" a guy doesn't help. First I suppose relates to the definition of "rushing" -- Patterson had major problems with his game, can he learn at the ML level? Are you sending the wrong message promoting guys who haven't "earned" it? Second is that the team always seems reluctant to send him back down after struggling -- and any such demotion is immediately labelled a "failure" by media and fans. Third is when the fans are counting on the player to be something of a savior or the prospect has been heavily hyped, putting too much pressure on the guy to perform -- and I'd think less likely to learn the lessons he should be learning because he's trying to hard to do too much.
But I know I'm not in a position to judge that sort of thing and I'm sure that, under the right circumstances, the majors is a better place to learn than the minors. Obviously they have to make the transition at some point or another. As long as you're not asking somebody who reads at a grade-2 level to read at a grade-8 level, I doubt it does much harm.
I know he'll turn out awesome but folks really need to stop throwing around Harper's name like he's a major success story. He's carrying a 97 OPS+. The BA is under 250, the ISO around 150. He had a 619 OPS in July and 518 so far in August. 97 for a 19-year-old is of course fine and dandy and very promising, and it's not far off Griffey and it's better than Yount. But then it's also a bit worse than Renteria and Kranepool. He's not a counter-example to anything yet.
So league average is not a best case scenario for a very young rookie.
I don't buy the "earned it" thing. Once you're a better player than anyone else your organization has available, you've earned it. The other questions are more serious - whether you trade off short term gains against the long-term player development. My suspicion is that a player will develop best if he's playing against the highest level of competition he can handle. On the other hand, maybe the guy can't handle it, and maybe an organization's minor league coaches are better than its major league ones at fixing whatever the deficiencies are that the player has. There can also be cases where a minor leaguer can work on things without worrying as much about winning, the way big leaguers do in spring training - e.g. a pitcher throwing a lot of change-ups to work on the pitch when his fastball is really what will get guys out - but this will be less common for position players.
Or Hanley.
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