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Would be kind of awesome if 6 teams tied for the 6th seed. Talk about a perfect argument against the 6th seed.
Do they have a tiebreaker mechanism to determine which team finishes first among teams that don't qualify for the wild card game?
9.Bob T posted on September 13, 2012 at 02:02 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
The Dodgers last three games are at home against the Giants, not the Padres. Yep, they will play the three divisional champs down the stretch.
10.Bhaakon posted on September 13, 2012 at 04:04 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
Do they have a tiebreaker mechanism to determine which team finishes first among teams that don't qualify for the wild card game?
Why would they?
11.boteman posted on September 13, 2012 at 05:06 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
LAD (10 home, 9 away)
3 @ Nationals
This feels weird to me. Don't the east-west games usually get played before September rolls around?
Sorry to see the Pirates fade so quickly, I was really pulling for them to be in the post-season. At least their local fans got to see some hopeful/exciting ball games in their beautiful ballpark (that I still have yet to visit, dammit!)
they should. but the brewers finish the season with the padres and this is not the first time san diego gets sent to milwaukee in the last few weeks of the season. i doubt either team enjoys as i know milwaukee would prefer going against division foes.
so the brewers planned rotation for the season was greinke, marcum, gallardo, wolf and narveson
the ending rotation will be gallardo, estrada, fiers, marcum and peralta with a meaningful interlude by mark rogers.
the second version has been more effective and consistent than the first. namely because wolf is gone as he was awful
the brewers will likely not make the playoffs and that will be the result of being too slow to react. leaving wolf in the rotation when he clearly had nothing to offer. leaving the bullpen untouched as game after game imploded late. this is not a case of not having options to sticking with plan a until finding a plan b. this was not being willing to explore plan b.
14.Lassus posted on September 13, 2012 at 08:15 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
My prediction of the Mets finishing within three games of the Phils seriously looked like a lock. ####### ############# worthless ####### #######.
15.salvomania posted on September 13, 2012 at 08:27 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
Cardinals have to stop bunting with zero outs, a runner in scoring position and one of their better hitters at bat. Maybe they'd stop losing games by one run.
A few days ago it was Matt Carpenter (.370 obp) bunting into a double play with two on and nobody out. Two nights ago, down by a run in the 8th and with the leadoff man on, it was Jon Jay (.391 obp) bunting through a down and in first pitch, foul bunting a second pitch, then striking out.
And last night, in the 9th down by a run and the leadoff batter on second, Molina (.370 obp) is bunting.
The Jay bunt is more defensible, as it moves a guy into scoring position, but the other two---the guy's already in scoring position, it takes one to tie, yes, but to win you're going to have score at least twice and you already have the makings of a big inning, and you've get REALLY GOOD HITTERS at the plate.
My prediction of the Mets finishing within three games of the Phils seriously looked like a lock.
You actually said that?? Dude, if you honestly believed that then you need to get your head examined as fast as possible, because something is seriously wrong with you.
the manager of the brewers has a team that leads the league in homers and runs scored and his love the bunt knows no bounds as the brewers lead the nl i think in sac bunts
thankfully he hates the intentional walk so i take some solace in that
19.spycake posted on September 13, 2012 at 09:17 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
Do they have a tiebreaker mechanism to determine which team finishes first among teams that don't qualify for the wild card game?
Why would they?
The OP referenced a tie for the 6th seed. But there is no 6th seed. The extra wild card is the 5th seed.
20.Lassus posted on September 13, 2012 at 10:19 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
You actually said that?? Dude, if you honestly believed that then you need to get your head examined as fast as possible, because something is seriously wrong with you.
Joey, try not to be such a swinging turd all your life. The Phils and the Mets were separated by over three games for the first time last week. A prediction being right for over five out of six months is not exactly "seriously wrong".
And you better believe if they make up those four games (not seeming likely, but still just seven behind the Phils as of this writing) this thread is going to be in the sidebar for a month.
21.McCoy posted on September 13, 2012 at 10:19 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
WEll, it was late and I meant 5th seed. Can't help it if football has started up again.
Cardinals have to stop bunting with zero outs, a runner in scoring position and one of their better hitters at bat. Maybe they'd stop losing games by one run.
This is probably because I'm a Cubs fan, but the move seemed especially stupid because Molina seems like the best bet in that Cardinals lineup to get the base hit with the man in scoring position.
attaboy lassus. don't be taking no guff from nobody
24.esseff posted on September 13, 2012 at 11:31 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
This is probably because I'm a Cubs fan, but the move seemed especially stupid because Molina seems like the best bet in that Cardinals lineup to get the base hit with the man in scoring position.
And another thing (bursting through the paper a la John Madden), even if Molina doesn't get the hit, there's an excellent chance that he'll put the ball in play and a fair chance it will be in a way that moves the runner.
25.esseff posted on September 13, 2012 at 11:56 AM #hit 0 | hit 0
NL wild card standings on 8/23 (i.e., three weeks ago):
ATL 71 54 +2.5
STL 68 56 --
PIT 67 57 1
LA 67 58 1.5
ARI 64 61 4.5
PHI 58 67 10.5
MIL 57 66 10.5
NYM 57 68 11.5
MIA 57 69 12
Lassus's prediction is one of those things that on paper might have looked dodgy, since theoretically the Phils have a much better team than the Mets. But with the Mets' early overperformance and the Phils' collapse plus spate of injuries, it wasn't at all crazy in practice. (And if you think it is, then: explain the Orioles.)
Really it's only the massive implosion of the Mets in the last month & a half combined with the magical return to competence of the Phils' rotation (because it sure isn't Ryan Howard who's powering that team along) that has created the gap.
I won't lie: the Phils look pretty scary right now. They swept us a week or so ago, and I'm beginning to feel like our upcoming games against them are going to be a bigger challenge than the ones we have against the Braves.
Joey, try not to be such a swinging turd all your life.
Good advice, which has basically no chance of being heeded, unfortunately.
31.McCoy posted on September 13, 2012 at 12:47 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Seriously, people are complaining about this second WC slot? This is crazy exciting.
Well, yeah. It's silly.
6 teams fighting for the right to get bounced in a one game playoff or swept in the divisional series is not my idea of a good time. It's chaos for the sake of chaos. Some people might enjoy that and to that I say enjoy the season. It isn't my cup of tea.
32.salvomania posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:10 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
6 teams fighting for the right to get bounced in a one game playoff or swept in the divisional series
I keep forgetting that the new setup prevents any of the Wild Card teams from advancing to the ALCS/NLCS.
33.robinred posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:18 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Looking at their schedule and how they are trending, I think the Phillies actually have a shot to get into this thing and make it interesting down to the last couple of days. The same could probably be said of Milwaukee of course, but I haven't been following them as much.
As long as we are talking about "seriously wrong" predictions, I picked the Phillies to win the NL East and the Brewers to be one of the WCs. I did have the Reds in the Central and the Giants in the West (as did many people).
34.McCoy posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:22 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
I keep forgetting that the new setup prevents any of the Wild Card teams from advancing to the ALCS/NLCS.
It doesn't but the 5th seeded team looks to be pretty pathetic this year. I mean we can say that the playoffs are a crapshoot but that doesn't mean it is totally random.
35.McCoy posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:24 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Anyone got a link to the BTF preseason prediction thread?
36.McCoy posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:28 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Even with an expected regression, picking the Phillies to win the division before the season was certainly a very plausible choice.
But man, the number of absolutely laughable and ludicrous things Lassus has said about the Mets during the course of this season, especially early on when they were so clearly overachieving their talent level, you could fill a small book with them.
[34] Worse looking teams have won the World Series before (1987 Twins, anyone?). This shows why I don't like the second wild card. One of these teams is going to have a chance to win the World Series after a very mediocre regular season.
40.esseff posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:52 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
I think the Phillies actually have a shot to get into this thing
As a Cardinals fan, this seems to me an understatement. Given their four games coming up against the Astros, the only thing keeping the Phillies from moving into wild-card position in the next few days is that St. Louis or Los Angeles is finally going to win a little this weekend (#7 above aside).
41.phredbird posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:53 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
i think i'm gonna hurl.
my nutbag prediction is in serious jeopardy.
42.Lassus posted on September 13, 2012 at 01:54 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
But man, the number of absolutely laughable and ludicrous things Lassus has said about the Mets during the course of this season, especially early on when they were so clearly overachieving their talent level, you could fill a small book with them.
A NUMBER? More turdiness. I said once that we were coming for you, and at the time we were two games back. You waited an entire month after I scared you with that and you were like 10 games up to answer and puff out your chest and call me ridiculous. Such bravado!
43.stanmvp48 posted on September 13, 2012 at 02:39 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
I wonder if this makes Braun an MVP candidate or if it has already been decided that he is ineligible for having not played for a contender. They are actually scoring .35 RPG more than last year w/o Fielder.
44.will posted on September 13, 2012 at 04:01 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Lassus is a fan of the Mets, as I'm a fan of the Phillies. If you can't get excited and optimistic ( or even overly optimistic) when your favorite team is playing well, then what is the value in following baseball ?........In support of Lassus, I'll root for the Mets the rest of the year (except 9-17,18 and 19).
45.Lassus posted on September 13, 2012 at 05:26 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Thanks! I'll be rooting for a meteor to destroy Philadelphia. You understand. Hee.
46.zenbitz posted on September 13, 2012 at 06:02 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
I thought the 2nd WC was dumb, but darned if it doesn't make sure the division leaders play out the string.
47.robinred posted on September 13, 2012 at 07:05 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
I thought the 2nd WC was dumb, but darned if it doesn't make sure the division leaders play out the string.
Obviously, it has plusses and minuses. SOSH, Andy, and other guys have done a good job pointing out the negatives. I like it compared to the previous system simply because it means you need to win the division to avoid the play-in game, and I think the play-in games will be fun.
As a Cardinals fan, this seems to me an understatement.
Maybe, but the Phillies have won seven straight. To really pressure the Cardinals/Dodgers, they will need to stay hot, push that to 14 out of 16 or so, probably not lose any to Houston, etc. That won't be easy--it's baseball.
As long as you don't stop to think that they're playing for a one-game crap shoot to get into the series phase.
Why shouldn't they have to? These are teams that, by definition, weren't good enough to win their divisions. They weren't champs, they were runners-up. Doesn't this new system, in fact, go a long way towards making RIGHT the complaint some people have had with the old WC system, that it unfairly allowed an "also-ran" team to complete on a perfectly even playing field with the best team in the league in a short series? Now they have to run the gamut of a 1-game playoff and burn their best starter, restoring a true advantage to the division champs.
49.NTNgod posted on September 13, 2012 at 07:33 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
burn their best starter
Considering how this appears like it's going to go down to the wire, and there's only a single day off before the wildcard game (assuming no sweet, sweet tiebreaker games), any of the non-Atlanta contenders are going to have limited flexibility in setting who starts the wildcard game.
Might be #2 starter vs. a #4 starter or something in the WC game, depending on already set rotations.
Doesn't this new system, in fact, go a long way towards making RIGHT the complaint some people have had with the old WC system, that it unfairly allowed an "also-ran" team to complete on a perfectly even playing field with the best team in the league in a short series?
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1 2 >Would be kind of awesome if 6 teams tied for the 6th seed. Talk about a perfect argument against the 6th seed.
I predict that they aren't going to lose again this season, and Ryan Howard is going to win the NL MVP, with a .700ish OPS
STL (9 home, 10 away)
4 @ Dodgers
3 vs. Astros
3 @ Cubs
3 @ Astros
3 vs. Nationals
3 vs. Reds
LAD (10 home, 9 away)
4 vs. Cardinals
3 @ Nationals
3 @ Reds
3 @ Padres
3 vs. Rockies
3 vs. Padres
PIT (9 home, 11 away)
4 @ Cubs
3 vs. Brewers
3 @ Astros
4 @ Mets
3 vs. Reds
3 vs. Braves
MIL (9 home, 10 away)
3 vs. Mets
3 @ Pirates
4 @ Nationals
3 @ Reds
3 vs. Astros
3 vs. Padres
PHI (6 home, 13 away)
4 @ Astros
3 @ Mets
3 vs. Braves
3 vs. Nationals
3 @ Marlins
3 @ Nationals
ARI (12 home, 7 away)
3 vs. Giants
3 vs. Padres
4 @ Rockies
3 @ Giants
3 vs. Cubs
3 vs. Rockies
4 @ Dodgers
I'm not sure how, but both teams will manage to lose all 4 of these games.
Do they have a tiebreaker mechanism to determine which team finishes first among teams that don't qualify for the wild card game?
Why would they?
3 @ Nationals
This feels weird to me. Don't the east-west games usually get played before September rolls around?
Sorry to see the Pirates fade so quickly, I was really pulling for them to be in the post-season. At least their local fans got to see some hopeful/exciting ball games in their beautiful ballpark (that I still have yet to visit, dammit!)
they should. but the brewers finish the season with the padres and this is not the first time san diego gets sent to milwaukee in the last few weeks of the season. i doubt either team enjoys as i know milwaukee would prefer going against division foes.
the ending rotation will be gallardo, estrada, fiers, marcum and peralta with a meaningful interlude by mark rogers.
the second version has been more effective and consistent than the first. namely because wolf is gone as he was awful
the brewers will likely not make the playoffs and that will be the result of being too slow to react. leaving wolf in the rotation when he clearly had nothing to offer. leaving the bullpen untouched as game after game imploded late. this is not a case of not having options to sticking with plan a until finding a plan b. this was not being willing to explore plan b.
A few days ago it was Matt Carpenter (.370 obp) bunting into a double play with two on and nobody out. Two nights ago, down by a run in the 8th and with the leadoff man on, it was Jon Jay (.391 obp) bunting through a down and in first pitch, foul bunting a second pitch, then striking out.
And last night, in the 9th down by a run and the leadoff batter on second, Molina (.370 obp) is bunting.
The Jay bunt is more defensible, as it moves a guy into scoring position, but the other two---the guy's already in scoring position, it takes one to tie, yes, but to win you're going to have score at least twice and you already have the makings of a big inning, and you've get REALLY GOOD HITTERS at the plate.
You actually said that?? Dude, if you honestly believed that then you need to get your head examined as fast as possible, because something is seriously wrong with you.
the manager of the brewers has a team that leads the league in homers and runs scored and his love the bunt knows no bounds as the brewers lead the nl i think in sac bunts
thankfully he hates the intentional walk so i take some solace in that
The OP referenced a tie for the 6th seed. But there is no 6th seed. The extra wild card is the 5th seed.
Joey, try not to be such a swinging turd all your life. The Phils and the Mets were separated by over three games for the first time last week. A prediction being right for over five out of six months is not exactly "seriously wrong".
And you better believe if they make up those four games (not seeming likely, but still just seven behind the Phils as of this writing) this thread is going to be in the sidebar for a month.
This is probably because I'm a Cubs fan, but the move seemed especially stupid because Molina seems like the best bet in that Cardinals lineup to get the base hit with the man in scoring position.
And another thing (bursting through the paper a la John Madden), even if Molina doesn't get the hit, there's an excellent chance that he'll put the ball in play and a fair chance it will be in a way that moves the runner.
ATL 71 54 +2.5
STL 68 56 --
PIT 67 57 1
LA 67 58 1.5
ARI 64 61 4.5
PHI 58 67 10.5
MIL 57 66 10.5
NYM 57 68 11.5
MIA 57 69 12
aramis .332/.385/.609
hart .316/.377/.539
braun .315/.377/.584
weeks .273/.357/.491
Really it's only the massive implosion of the Mets in the last month & a half combined with the magical return to competence of the Phils' rotation (because it sure isn't Ryan Howard who's powering that team along) that has created the gap.
I won't lie: the Phils look pretty scary right now. They swept us a week or so ago, and I'm beginning to feel like our upcoming games against them are going to be a bigger challenge than the ones we have against the Braves.
EDIT: Did some cursory research and the answer is a 16-5 record over their past 21 games. Huh.
Seriously, people are complaining about this second WC slot? This is crazy exciting.
As long as you don't stop to think that they're playing for a one-game crap shoot to get into the series phase.
Good advice, which has basically no chance of being heeded, unfortunately.
Well, yeah. It's silly.
6 teams fighting for the right to get bounced in a one game playoff or swept in the divisional series is not my idea of a good time. It's chaos for the sake of chaos. Some people might enjoy that and to that I say enjoy the season. It isn't my cup of tea.
I keep forgetting that the new setup prevents any of the Wild Card teams from advancing to the ALCS/NLCS.
As long as we are talking about "seriously wrong" predictions, I picked the Phillies to win the NL East and the Brewers to be one of the WCs. I did have the Reds in the Central and the Giants in the West (as did many people).
It doesn't but the 5th seeded team looks to be pretty pathetic this year. I mean we can say that the playoffs are a crapshoot but that doesn't mean it is totally random.
My picks:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
AL WC: Texas
AL WC: Tampa
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Arizona
NL WC: Atlanta
World Series: Giants vs Tigers
WS Winners: Tigers
Cubs lose 94 games.
But man, the number of absolutely laughable and ludicrous things Lassus has said about the Mets during the course of this season, especially early on when they were so clearly overachieving their talent level, you could fill a small book with them.
None of you picked the A's or O's for anything. What a bunch of dopes!
As a Cardinals fan, this seems to me an understatement. Given their four games coming up against the Astros, the only thing keeping the Phillies from moving into wild-card position in the next few days is that St. Louis or Los Angeles is finally going to win a little this weekend (#7 above aside).
my nutbag prediction is in serious jeopardy.
A NUMBER? More turdiness. I said once that we were coming for you, and at the time we were two games back. You waited an entire month after I scared you with that and you were like 10 games up to answer and puff out your chest and call me ridiculous. Such bravado!
Obviously, it has plusses and minuses. SOSH, Andy, and other guys have done a good job pointing out the negatives. I like it compared to the previous system simply because it means you need to win the division to avoid the play-in game, and I think the play-in games will be fun.
Maybe, but the Phillies have won seven straight. To really pressure the Cardinals/Dodgers, they will need to stay hot, push that to 14 out of 16 or so, probably not lose any to Houston, etc. That won't be easy--it's baseball.
Considering how this appears like it's going to go down to the wire, and there's only a single day off before the wildcard game (assuming no sweet, sweet tiebreaker games), any of the non-Atlanta contenders are going to have limited flexibility in setting who starts the wildcard game.
Might be #2 starter vs. a #4 starter or something in the WC game, depending on already set rotations.
Yes, it does.
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