Joe Savery L P 26 .256 .301 .327 61 156 13 40 6 1 1 13 10 30 0 1 69

So Savery used to be a pitcher and is now a position player; or he was a position player and is now a pitcher; or ZiPS is just trying to embarrass some of the guys at the bottom of the Phils organizational ladder?

Both apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Savery

During the off-season of 2010 it was announced that Savery would be converted into a hitter, with the hope he can recapture his collegiate success. He participated in the FIL after the season to learn first base which is where he will play in 2011.

He was later promoted to AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley where he was once again converted to a pitcher, but this time a relief pitcher.

Shane, come back. We need you. In centerfield. But we're not sure how you rate defensively.

I didn't see SP Tyler Cloyd in there, what does zips think of him?

I know Zips doesn't project playing time but isn't Howard likely to miss half the season or at least a third of it ?

Phils fans, if they don't sign a stopgap who internally is likely to get those PA ?

If they are going to sign someone who are the most likely candidates ?

We can talk about how overrated and overpaid howard is all day long but I think they will be hard pressed to get over 110 OPS+ out of first base next year (in aggregate)

Boy, I'd love to see the Yankees make a run at Oswalt for a year.

Who is this Cesar Hernandez fellow whose #1 comp is Roberto Alomar?

Mayberry at first with Brown in the outfield is a pretty good stopgap until Howard is healthy. Im pretty sure Amaro has said he'd prefer for Brown to stay in the minors this year though which seems nuts.

Who is this Cesar Hernandez fellow whose #1 comp is Roberto Alomar?

He's the guy who hit .268/.306/.333 last year in High-A at the same age Alomar hit .295/.347/.376 for the Padres. So I'm not really seeing it.

JRoll's the best shortstop in Phils history, but career projections of 253 homers, 506 steals, 1508 runs scored -- does he really have HOF credentials?

JRoll's the best shortstop in Phils history, but career projections of 253 homers, 506 steals, 1508 runs scored -- does he really have HOF credentials?

For guys who played at least 51% of their games at SS, that would put Rollins fourth in HR, tied for fifth in SB, and fifth in runs. Rollins would be the only guy who meets the 51% requirement who tops 200 HR, 400 SB and 1250 R.

Now that having been said, I really don't think Rollins is a Hall of Famer. He's drawn fewer walks than Spike Owen, Lyn Lary or Chris Speier. He's not Ozzie Smith or anything defensive. But then, do people really talk about him as a HoF candidate?

Let me double-check Hernandez - that Alomar comp looks wrong.

Yeah, the Alomar comp's wrong. The projection's correct, but ZiPS has Roberto Alomar's name mapped to Manny Lee for Lee's 1986-1988 numbers.

Two straight years ZiPS refuses to draw a line between Halladay and Lee.

Wow, I'm really surprised at Pence's projection. .281/.334/.450, 108+. That would basically represent career lows in SLG and OPS, and is worse than last year's 111+ projection. All after merely going .314/.370/.502, 138+ last year, and is 120+ for his career. Dan, does ZiPS just not like Pence?

EDIT: And worse than Domonic Brown, hmmm.

As far as I can tell, ZiPS has had Pence age pretty early for awhile and skeptical of him maintaining anything close this his 2011 BABIP.

OK, thanks.

Victorino still about Av/~60, or does he get a bump to VG?

Two straight years ZiPS refuses to draw a line between Halladay and Lee.

same IP, same ER, but halladay has 1 fewer start

JRoll's the best shortstop in Phils history, but career projections of 253 homers, 506 steals, 1508 runs scored -- does he really have HOF credentials?

For guys who played at least 51% of their games at SS, that would put Rollins fourth in HR, tied for fifth in SB, and fifth in runs. Rollins would be the only guy who meets the 51% requirement who tops 200 HR, 400 SB and 1250 R.

Now that having been said, I really don't think Rollins is a Hall of Famer. He's drawn fewer walks than Spike Owen, Lyn Lary or Chris Speier. He's not Ozzie Smith or anything defensive. But then, do people really talk about him as a HoF candidate?

i think he's on the outside looking in, but if he keeps producing for another ~5 years, he could be a viable candidate.

ZiPS projects Rollins for about 11,000 total PA, i.e. another 3500 in his career.* That would put him 7th all-time among guys with 50%+ games at SS and one of those is Yount who's pretty much right at that 50% mark. So, yeah, if he does that, he's bound to end up high on career SS lists by counting stats. He's got 3 GG but that hasn't been enough to be considered a defensive whiz at SS. On the other hand, if you ignore walks and some context, he looks a lot like Larkin, including having an MVP (and including his durability the last few years). So if he makes it that far, he's got a real shot.

* I was gonna raise my annual questioning of ZiPS playing time projections for career projections as 3500 more PA seemed on the high side as a mean/median projection -- definitely of reasonable likelihood but too high for a mean. But there are 24 players who, after age 32, had 2500+ PA with 40% of their games at SS and the median of that group is between Jeter and Larkin both around 3440. Vizquel has had nearly 6000 and Smith, Ripken, Concepcion and presumably Jeter are above 3500. So ZiPS wins this round!

On the other hand, 22 players have played 80% of games at SS and had 6500+ PA through age 32 and only 4 (Ripken, Jeter, Maranville, Aparicio) had 3500+ PA afterwards so I can hang my hat on that. Limit it to those with an OPS+ of 90 or greater and it's 3 of 17. Wow, Maranville got away with a 68 OPS+ from 33 onwards (4150 PA).

That's awesome to be projected to 200:34 and 186:32 K:BB ratios. Those guys can pitch a little.

As for Oswalt--what sort of contract is he likely to be offered (in general, not just from Philly)?

As for Oswalt--what sort of contract is he likely to be offered (in general, not just from Philly)?

i was thinking a hometown discount for the phillies would put him in the 2/18 range. maybe add a year and a couple mil for the highest bidder, and he'd get to 3/33-40.


i think it's also likely that he's a bit burned out and might be willing to take a one year deal from a contender. maybe st louis, arizona, colorado, milwaukee, detroit, or LAA would get in the bidding if that's the case.

AV/46 for Victorino.

Jack Cust - DH. For the Phillies. Nice!

Cust spent a week in Lehigh Valley and was released. He looked like a nice option for September but alas, it was not to be.

Could we get a projection on Cody Overbeck? Not much upside but he's a 4C type who is close to the majors.

Jack Cust's defensive rating is too high.

So Rollins' HOF viability (such as it is) is contingent on 3500 more PAs. I simply don't see that happening.

Two straight years ZiPS refuses to draw a line between Halladay and Lee.

I was also very surprised to see that ZiPS projected them to the same ERA. I tend to think of Halladay as being hands-down superior to Lee, but I guess I can't defend that as well as I would have thought when I compare their last 3-4 years.

I was also very surprised to see that ZiPS projected them to the same ERA. I tend to think of Halladay as being hands-down superior to Lee, but I guess I can't defend that as well as I would have thought when I compare their last 3-4 years.

Halladay has been hands down superior (IMO), but it's the age difference that seems to be making the projections so close.

I had no idea where Jack Cust wound up.

Should Rollins decide to stay in Philly, though, he is on track to wind up #1 or #2 all-time on most of the Phillies career counting stats (except homers and RBIs)...

Honestly, that yearly and career projection for Cole Hamels seems a little bearish.

Aumont, Schwimmer and De Fratus all have a better projection than Stutes, yet Stutes performed in the majors almost all year. Interesting...

Honestly, that yearly and career projection for Cole Hamels seems a little bearish.

201 wins, and a career 118 ERA+ is a little bearish? That would be a damn fine career.

Also, I expect we'll see his career projections improve a lot after the next season, since (I think) ZIPS only uses the last three years of data, so it's still seeing his 97 ERA+ 2009 season.

Did John Mayberry kick ZIPS dog? At 28 he should be coming into his prime years yet he's going to be outperformed by Ibanez. That's gotta hurt...

Did John Mayberry kick ZIPS dog? At 28 he should be coming into his prime years yet he's going to be outperformed by Ibanez. That's gotta hurt...

His OPS in the minors for 2009 to 2011 are 0.788, 0.740, and 0.729. For a 1B/corner OF, that's not going to fills ZIPS with pants-tightening offensive joy.

Wow, I'm really surprised at Pence's projection. .281/.334/.450, 108+.

Not Dan, but that's where his BA and OBP were in aggregate for 2009-2010. The SLG *looks* a touch low, but like .015 or something. 2011 was all batting average spike.

His OPS in the minors for 2009 to 2011 are 0.788, 0.740, and 0.729. For a 1B/corner OF, that's not going to fills ZIPS with pants-tightening offensive joy.

Basically he's got 1500 mle PAs that say he's not a major league hitter, let alone an acceptable 1B/corner OF, and he's 369 pretty good mlb PAs, plus he was a prospect and he has a baseball name...

Gary Matthews Jr put up a 111 in his age 27 season on route to a 92 career...
So sure Mayberry may actually have a good full MLB season in his future (Sarge Jr did), but the smart money says bank 2011 and pass on the second helping

His OPS in the minors for 2009 to 2011 are 0.788, 0.740, and 0.729. For a 1B/corner OF, that's not going to fills ZIPS with pants-tightening offensive joy.

Mayberry will be no star but he'll do OK should the Phils continue to put lineups heavy on the LHB. Other teams should throw their lefty's, he seems like a good platoon match. I was more amused with him being next to Ibanez. If ever someone looked toasty I'd put Raul as Exhibit A.

I didn't see SP Tyler Cloyd in there, what does zips think of him?

I am also curious about this.

Dan, I know that this system doesn't care about people who own players in sim leagues, but more about comparisons. But I really have a problem with Pence. He's 120+ for his career. He's coming off a 138+ season. I just can't get using his projection at 108+ (WTF) for my team. Yes, I'm a whiny owner. But, for a certain someone's sake, please explain to me how you wouldn't at least adjust this projection at least somewhat based upon reality. I can't wait until I have to argue for Matt Joyce again...(rightly)

He's coming off a BABIP-charged 138 OPS+ season. With his 2008-2010 BABIP, he's coming off a 259/311/443 season. There's little to suggest that he's anywhere near a .361 BABIP guy going forward. You tell me, what's the basis for him being a .330 BABIP guy going forward? He's not super fast or super powerful. He's one of the worst line-drive hitters around (by FanGraphs, second-worst in baseball over the last decade).

Since your projections are based on "reality," then why don't you develop your own projection system that can tap into this 2012 reality that the rest of us do not have access to? The rest of us are stuck in 2011 and can only go where the facts and evidence up to now can point us.

You could have just said "Reality is based on BABIP and he will not have such a high BABIP in the future".

Wow, that's pretty harsh...I get it, you can cherry pick some other stats that point to regression. Here are a few comebacks...His career BABIP is .328. It has been shown as often as not (when career marks of nearly 3000 ABs are concerned) that some players sustain a BABIP over .300, and that .300 is only a rough norm among the field, not among individual players. Since I can't see your BABIP, LD, etc., numbers, it makes it hard for me to argue those things, you're the only one privy to them.

If you want to talk about numbers, Pence's career ISOp is .193. Apparently ZiPS thinks it will dip to .169. His career LOW is .179. That shiny .450 SLG you project, even in a low offensive environment is lower than the WORST he ever posted (.463) and considerably lower than last year's (.502 in same environment) and his career's (.485).

My point still stands, your projections are grossly lower than both his career averages, as well as as averages over the last 4 years.

Your Fangraphs still has him at 120 wRC+ for his CAREER. You are projecting a precipitous 10% drop from his career, and a 24.43% drop from 2011.

As far as your remarks about the rest of reality, I've seen you adjust projections (Hawpe?) based on reality in the past. There's not a person here who would think a 108+ is appropo in the case.

As a sim league owner, I am of course being selfish. But it's pretty apparent that this is a decent "job" of a projection by other teams in my league. We're not the pros, and we're obviously not the ones with the final say, or mathematical ability to derive a system. That said, maybe we're better off using a CBS 3 year average, as this is just off. If you can't see that Pence is off, I'm sorry. It doesn't change my high level of respect for you, but it does paint you as being obtuse in the face of fact. Again, I'm sorry, but your system is just WRONG.

Wow, that's pretty harsh...I get it, you can cherry pick some other stats that point to regression. Here are a few comebacks...His career BABIP is .328. It has been shown as often as not (when career marks of nearly 3000 ABs are concerned

It's cherrypicking when one points out the very reason for his impressive 2011 statistics?

As far as your remarks about the rest of reality, I've seen you adjust projections (Hawpe?) based on reality in the past.

I've only adjusted based on mistakes - I occasionally have someone the wrong age or park.

You keep using reality. I do not think that word means what you think it means. Or else you have a time machine.

I had this exact same argument about Ben Zobrist's projection going into 2010. And a multitude of other times.

That said, maybe we're better off using a CBS 3 year average.

Is that supposed to be some sort of threat or something? Am I supposed to cry "Sakes alive, I must change these projections that random people feel are wrong" or something? If you prefer your league play in a 2009-2011 season league, you should definitely push your commissioner to go that route.

Obtuse in the face of fact

[...]

Again, I'm sorry, but your system is just WRONG.

The facts of 2012? Where are you getting these? Are you from the future? If you already know what happened, why doesn't your league just use the 2012 season disk you already have?

This dude's sure stepped in it.

This dude's sure stepped in it.

I've seen Szym put up a good fight with a weak, ridiculous argument. With a solid one, the best path to overcoming him isn't to fight him, but to bore him. You can't defeat the dude by setting him up for easy zingers.

Yeah, I'm sorry, I was probably a bit out of line. I completely feel that Pence's projection is low, obviously, but probably didn't do a good job of making my point. My frustration is more based on being stuck with a projection that I don't think is fair/accurate, and not being able to anticipate that projection based on anything Pence has done in his career. I guess if I had all of the numbers behind how it was derived, I'd understand more. It is a self-centered argument certainly, since I'm an owner of the player and using him in a system that depends on the ZiPS. I like Dan, and I like the system as a whole, just differ I guess on Pence.

I guess there's nothing I can do but wipe the egg off my face:)

I enjoyed your posts, mostly because your screen name compelled me to hear Vinny Barbarino's voice in my head while I was reading them.

I enjoyed your posts, mostly because your screen name compelled me to hear Vinny Barbarino's voice in my head while I was reading them.

That's pretty funny.