So I was wondering, since the Beltran/Wheeler trade was basically a draft pick trade (as the Mets covered Wheeler's signing bonus), was that the first time in memory that the Mets went over slot for a draft pick?

So I was wondering, since the Beltran/Wheeler trade was basically a draft pick trade (as the Mets covered Wheeler's signing bonus), was that the first time in memory that the Mets went over slot for a draft pick?

I believe they just went more than $150,000 over slot to sign their supplemental first round pick Michael Fulmer.

Josh Zeid is one of the two additional players in the trade, by the way.

Metsjacked already?

I have to admit that the Phillies amateur scouting has been unbelievably good the last five years or more. In this trade they got a lot of value back for a 38th, an 8th and a 10th round pick. Just imagine if their first round picks had turned out since 2007.

While I suppose it fits a need (as in "Anyone but Ibanez!"), my problem with this deal is it gives up cheap talent for a guy who's just about to get real expensive via arbitration, and really you only control him for 2 years. If you decide to lock him up early, you might get some added value on the life of the contract that gets signed but... still...

The Phillies are going to be really expensive and pretty old in 2 years; it's not going to end well once they get to the other side of the "Flags Fly Forever!" moment in 2011 and (maybe) 2012.

this a very good deal, much better than the previous rumors which had the astros holding out for something on top of cosart/singleton/dom brown.

pence isn't as good as jayson werth, but he's close enough to it that he'll slot right in the 5 hole, playing everyday in RF. i'm really very happy with this.


also, as i mentioned in the previous pence thread, cosart has questionable mechanics and a history of arm injuries, so i don't really consider him to be a massive loss. in my mind, he's an overhyped lottery ticket; he could easily live up to the lofty expectations, but i think it's much more likely that he won't, and even if he does, he won't get there for a few years, by which time, there'll be 2 more pennanta hanging in the OF.



oh, and also, in the last 2 weeks/next 2 weeks, the team with the best record in baseball will have added ryan madson, brad lidge, roy oswalt, placido polanco, and hunter pence, all without losing anything off the major league roster.


i really could not be much happier about this.

I also want to put in writing.

Heath Bell for Dom Brown.

Not saying it's a good trade, but it wouldn't shock me.

Heath Bell for Dom Brown.

You really want to ruin STEAGLES' good mood, don't you Sean?

I also want to put in writing.

Heath Bell for Dom Brown.

Not saying it's a good trade, but it wouldn't shock me.

You really want to ruin STEAGLES' good mood, don't you Sean?

yeah, i really hope there's no smoke there. bell would be in the same position as ryan madson, in that he'll be a FA this offseason, and likely to be looking for a significant raise, and i really don't think it's necessary to give up dom brown for that.

I dunno. The Phillies' spot in the playoffs is secure and the playoffs are random. Adding Pence really has little to no effect on their title hopes this year, so it's really a question of shaping the roster in 2012 and beyond for me. As for that... eh, I don't really feel strongly about this one either way. (So why are you posting on the internet, Mash?)

The Astros apparently wanted two of Minor/Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino from the Braves, plus another "young pitcher the Braves regarded highly," per Rosenthal.

the playoffs are random.

no, they're really not.

ed wade just made a great trade to make the phillies better - he's the gift that keeps on giving to the phils and they don't even have to pay him no mo

the astros got a bunch of A ball crap and drayton doesn't have to pay 2.3 mill

we've got Barmes, Bourn, Wandy and the ol WB to dump

and when wandy goes, i'm gone. that's right, you head it here and i mean it.

the astros - especially if crane is allowed to become owner, will be in yearly contention for the worst team in the majors for decades. and i will have found something else to do with my life. sometimes, you just have to say it's over when it's over

Don't give up bbc! Its always darkest before dawn.

It's only been 6 years since their WS appearance!

and when wandy goes, i'm gone.

You'd look good in knee-high boots and a Reds' hat.

According to Heyman, Dom Brown will be heading to Lehigh Valley to get everyday playing time with Ibañez staying in LF. That kind of reduces the size of the upgrade for this season.

the astros got a bunch of A ball crap and drayton doesn't have to pay 2.3 mill

Lisa, I know how you feel about Pence, but they really didn't get crap back. Singleton and Cosert are actually very good prospects, with outstanding potential. The Astros have only one road out of this mess, since as you've argued, Crane isn't going to be spending big bucks on top-shelf major league free agents. They need to build a minor league system, with at least a dozen really outstanding prospects, because if they only have 3-4, the chances are most of 'em will flame out, and getting one good player isn't going to be enough. But if you have a dozen, and three of them hit as stars, you've got the core of your next contending team. Maybe you've got your Gooden/Strawberry, or your next Killer B's.

Well, tonight you got two of those dozen. You have to start somewhere, and as barren as the Houston system is, getting two is a huge start. Singleton really, truly is one of the best hitting prospects in the minors. Cosert was ranked mid-season as the # 42 prospect in all of the minors by BA, just earlier this month. The present sucks for the Astros, and it sucked even with Hunter Pence. He wasn't really making it fun; he was just numbing the pain. The only way it's going to be fun is if they build a great minor league system and the prospects start arriving a while from now. They need to be the next Tampa Rays.

IMHO, Wade -- bad as he is overall -- got good value tonight for a team in the Astros' position.

It was a good trade - I am happy my Braves didn't top the offer, but it was hardly a gimme.

Well and thoughtfully said, Sam.

+1.

no, they're really not.

The Braves made it every time they were held from 1991 until 2005, with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz in their rotation from 1993 until 1999. They won the World Series once.

So . . . .

Yes, they really are.

I'm at a loss, how is making the playoffs 'random'?

I'm at a loss, how is making the playoffs 'random'?

You're at a loss because that's not what was said.

They need to be the next Tampa Rays.

For Astros fans, this is a scary concept. The Rays might be a trendy favorite these days, but it took them almost a decade of being putrid at the ML level for them to get there. Low-revenue, bad-ballpark (and, for years, bad-owner) Tampa might not have had much choice, but Houston is a top-10 market with an excellent ballpark.

The natives are already getting restless in Houston; it will be interesting to see what happens in the months ahead. If Lisa is even semi-representative, it appears the new owner is going to have a very short honeymoon.

The Braves made it every time they were held from 1991 until 2005, with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz in their rotation from 1993 until 1999. They won the World Series once.

This sounds like the opposite of random. It sounds like a pretty established, regular pattern.

Am I the only one not really seeing the big deal about Pence? I like this for the Astros.

Making the playoffs isn't random. Once there, the field is favored over the best team.

If Lisa is even semi-representative

I think she is in her frustration with how poorly the team has been run these past few years, and I don't think that hanging an "Under New Ownership" sign outside the Box will do anything for attendance unless the product changes for the better, which it isn't likely to. Without a lockout next year, it'll be a football town by July for the next few years. They'll have corporate season ticket sales and some die-hards, but lots of dollar-nights and other deals while remaining in the bottom third for attendance. That's my guess.

Am I the only one not really seeing the big deal about Pence? I like this for the Astros.

It could work out great for the Astros in the long run, but trading the team's best player and fan favorite for two kids in A-ball who might help in 2013 or '14 (or '15) clearly is a bitter pill for Astros fans.

I don't get this. For either team. The Phillies are a good team, who many were already expecting to get to the World Series anyway. Pence is a good player but I don't think he's a huge difference-maker, even if he has better hitters in front of or behind him. Pence probably isn't selling Jeter-level merch at Minute Maid Park, but who the hell do you look forward to seeing when you go to Minute Maid Park now? They don't even have a hyped-up Strasburg/Trout-level hot prospect to look forward to. I think the highest-ranked prospect they have is Delino Deshields' son and he seems to be a B-level prospect at best.

Pence probably isn't selling Jeter-level merch at Minute Maid Park, but who the hell do you look forward to seeing when you go to Minute Maid Park now?

This was my main point in the other Pence thread. From a pure baseball operations standpoint, the trade makes sense for Houston. But their ML team and farm system are so thin that there's not even an obvious heir apparent to Pence as fan favorite, other than maybe Altuve. It's bad enough for attendance to drop, but with the Astros' new RSN starting up in 2012 or '13, this isn't a great time for TV ratings to be crashing.

I think the Astros' highest-rated prospect is one of the two guys they just got.

How can anyone say this isn't an impact move for the Phillies? It quite clearly is. Ibanez has been putrid, and the team desperately needs a RH bat.

This seems to be a better alternative than giving Jayson Werth a bajillion dollars last winter.

Pence isn't replacing Ibanez. He's apparently replacing Brown. I don't think trading two good prospects for Pence makes sense for the Phillies at this point, either. They were very, very likely to make the playoffs already, and you can't improve your chances of winning the World Series once in the playoffs; they're 1 in 8, period.

the astros - especially if crane is allowed to become owner, will be in yearly contention for the worst team in the majors for decades. and i will have found something else to do with my life. sometimes, you just have to say it's over when it's over

The Pirates' door is always open, if you feel like walking through.

It's funny to see the outfielders changing teams and the Braves just keep plugging along with one real outfielder. We're good thanks. Haven't had a complete outfield in ten years, why start now. Something called Jose Constanza led off a played centerfield tonight. Why not.

Am I the only one not really seeing the big deal about Pence? I like this for the Astros.

Nope. As a Mets fan I can't say I'm too upset about this.

Joe Kehoskie Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:20 AM (#3888893)

Am I the only one not really seeing the big deal about Pence? I like this for the Astros.

It could work out great for the Astros in the long run, but trading the team's best player and fan favorite for two kids in A-ball who might help in 2013 or '14 (or '15) clearly is a bitter pill for Astros fans.

- ding
DINGDINGDINGDING

the supposed 2 great prospects that ed wade got last year are both lousy and have been promoted to higher levels than they deserve to show how smart ed wade is. brett wallace has no power and isn't a ML first baseman and j happ had a high "win" record and borderline stuff.

ida wanna hear no nothin bout no building up minor leagues by ed "phillies unpaid GM" wade

ed wade's top draft picks are absolutely awful - and this includes jason castro, who oozes this intangibles stuff and can't hit ML pitching or block balls

the top "prospects" in the astros top 10 are just guys who were drafted in the past couple of years in the 1 or 2 slot and have all that "potential" - you know the kind - they are 20 and in 10 years have the potential to be 30. "potential" means what someone guesses someone can do based a lot on what they look like and who they remind someone of.

- i can't get excited about getting A ball guys and i don't have any idea why so many of you think that what some guy does in A ball predicts ML success.

now this is just me and i am a serious fan - and i'm not sure how much longer this gonna go on. jim crane and his empty pockets getting handed this franchise is gonna be bout the last straw.

the Box will still get their coprorate seats sold, and lots of cheap group tix and big bunches of little kids in to sing the anthem and clap from their crappy seats in the upper deck where you can't see anything. there won't be FANS - just some bodies in the seats for a night out.

this is what MLB wants - the sales to the rich empty seats and boxes and suites - and they don't CARE if people come to the actual stadium - MLBAM, mlb.tv and cable give the owners plenty of money no matter what goes on the field and they only have any trouble if they are out and out thieves like mccourt - and if him and jamie weren't so stupid and greedy and didn't make the lethal mistake of getting divored so all the finances came out in public - the second worst sin to bud - they STILL be draining the franchise dry.

mlb/bud and fox really care about pimping yankees/redsox and the rest of the franchises can suck for all they care.

and now the astros are gonna be bottom dwellers for decades.

seems that won't nobody repeat jim crane's ON THE RECORD statement about refusing to spend money on the major leagues and that the payroll would be drastically cut and would not go up unless the fans "support the team" - which, let's face it, they are NOT gonna do with a bunch of brett wallaces losing 100+ games every year

you guys think i'm kidding about divorcing bud and his crap - nope, i'm not

Brown is likely headed to AAA to play every day in LF, where he will start next year. My guess is the Phils will call him up before September 1, and he could be back in the lineup then.

The Phillies are going to be really expensive and pretty old in 2 years; it's not going to end well once they get to the other side of the "Flags Fly Forever!" moment in 2011 and (maybe) 2012.

But wait, the flags do fly forever, and when 2012 rolls around they can reload the system by trading some of those old expensive guys to other teams looking to make a playoff push. I'm not seeing much of a problem here.

you can't improve your chances of winning the World Series once in the playoffs; they're 1 in 8, period.

That's just silly talk. Do you really think that if the Pirates win the NLC, that they will have the same chances to win as the Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Giants, or Yankees? It's a crap shoot but not an even odds crap shoot.

Hunter Pence raises the Phils chance of winning the WS from oh, 14% to 14.5%. He does give them some leverage against Loogies, although there's a 0% chance that Charlie Manual will do anything to maximize Pence's possible help in that area.

you can't improve your chances of winning the World Series once in the playoffs; they're 1 in 8, period.

So if you're the Phillies do you rest Halladay for the playoffs? I mean, why risk hurting his arm if it doesn't effect your chances of winning? May as well save him for the regular season games in 2012 that matter.

you guys think i'm kidding about divorcing bud and his crap - nope, i'm not

LCS in 2004, WS in 2005, last team eliminated from playoff contention in 2006. I know you're pissed and things suck, but a half-decade of crap isn't really much.

i can't get excited about getting A ball guys and i don't have any idea why so many of you think that what some guy does in A ball predicts ML success.

I guess we just differ in how we approach the whole fan thing. I can get excited over A ball guys, and have a lot of fun following the Mets' minor league teams to see which of their prospects are doing well and maybe showing signs of exceeding expectations or, in the case of a 1st round pick, meeting them. That's the future life-blood of the team, big-market or otherwise. I'd much rather have a team that is primarily home-grown and developed.

I agree with you that "what some guy does in A ball [doesn't] predict ML success" -- at least not reliably. That's why you need to have a deep minor league system, with a LOT of prospects like Singleton and Cosart. Because some of 'em will get hurt, and some of 'em will just not maintain their performance at higher levels, and some of 'em will lose their desire to do the work it takes to succeed in the face of tougher competition and inevitable failures along the way. The Astros had none, zero, zilch prospects of this caliber. As BA said in its summary of this trade:

Cosart had the best pure arm in the system, and Singleton the best pure stroke. Those are strong players to build a trade around, and they instantly jump to the front of a painfully thin Astros farm system.

But anyway, as I said, we just differ on this. Two days ago, there were two important and interesting starts by pitchers in the Mets' minor league system. Johan Santana made his first rehab start, throwing 33 pitches in three shutout innings at St. Lucie. In AA Binghamton, their # 1 pick from last year, Matt Harvey, went 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 run, while striking out 10 (including Bryce Harper twice) in a no-decision. Most of the attention, for obvious reasons, went to Santana -- and don't get me wrong, I'm big-time hoping he comes back as the Johan of old. But I was more excited about Harvey. That's just me.

lassus,

a half decade of crap - except for 2008 until Ike, isn't much. correctamundo. i can handle that no probs

what i CAN'T handle is the fact that this is going to continue for decades. i see absolutely ZERO signs that there is gonna be any significant positive change or that the drafting/developing in the minors will improve.

notice that the 2 guys who succeeded THIS year were NOT prospects. or drafted high. they were both expected to be nothing but minor league filler and they developed in spite of the minors.


ed wade/bobby heck haven't made a dime's worth of difference in the past 4 years. we've had the exact number of succeses from the purpura era (2 years) than we did with wade - a couple of guys who succeeded who weren't "prospects"

getting a few more A ball guys (who are not exactly mike trout/ryan braun) and a suckulous AA guy isn't gonna make a damm bit of difference

being an astros fan these days is like being an abused woman hoping that he'll "change" because he's soooooooo sorry

and yes, i think i am speaking for most of the few remaining "fans" in houston and make no mistake about it, we've lost the austin/san antonio market and no one else anywhere in the state gives a **** about the astros. these are the FACTS. i don't see astros hats. i see (the kind of swear words that will make The Jim ban me forevah) yecchs/redsux tshirts/jerseys and caps. THAT is what kind of "fans" we have left. and take a look at the media coverage of the astros - basically, nothing.

it's ovah (unless we get an owner who is not crane and is not gonna WANT to play loser for 30 mill)

this is going to continue for decades

That seems pretty hard to imagine. Even the Pirates only took 15 years to finally start wising up a little bit, and it only took three years for the wising up to start showing up on the field. Why not at least hold out hope that Wade and Heck will be gone after a couple more seasons of empty seats and last place finishes?

"1 in 8, period" is exaggeration but not by much. If the Pirates somehow win the Central they'd be about 10% to win the World Series while the Phillies would be about 15%. The difference is not much greater than that.

And I'll repeat my point on this topic: as far as winning once in the playoffs goes, Hunter Pence makes no difference. Especially not when he's replacing Dominic Brown. This trade's only importance lies in what it means for the 2012-2013 Phillies.

So if you're the Phillies do you rest Halladay for the playoffs? I mean, why risk hurting his arm if it doesn't effect your chances of winning? May as well save him for the regular season games in 2012 that matter.

You're being sarcastic but in a vacuum it's not a bad strategy, or anyway it wouldn't be a bad strategy to give Halladay extra days off. It doesn't fail from a baseball strategy standpoint, it fails because your marketing department would object and Roy Halladay would object.

But as it is, it probably WOULD be a good idea, at least once we roll into September, to be a little less inclined to let Halladay throw 8 innings in 8-1 games.

They were very, very likely to make the playoffs already, and you can't improve your chances of winning the World Series once in the playoffs; they're 1 in 8, period.

That's BS. Not favored against the field is a whole lot different than random.

Pence makes the Phillies better this year, and for the next 2 years, when they'll be in contention with their aging core. This trade makes sense for both teams.