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    • Friday, May 17, 2013

    Pregame: Hurdle discusses the role of pitcher / hitter matchups in lineup construction - Bucs Dugout

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    posted 1 day ago by Jim Furtado to clint hurdle, defense, pirates, sabermetrics  |  2 comment(s)

    Good stuff. Take a look.

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    1. Spivey posted on July 22, 2011 at 03:59 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Got my plane and game tickets for the 9/23-9/25 series against Cincy. Hopefully they're still in contention then.
    2. Mike Emeigh  posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:04 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Pitching matchups:

    Carpenter (11-2, 2.09 career vs Bucs) vs Maholm (4-4, 3.33 career vs Cardinals)
    Garcia (0-1, 0.96 career vs Bucs) vs Correia (2-2, 2.79 career vs Cardinals)
    Lohse (5-2, 3.59 career vs Bucs) vs Morton (2-3, 6.43 career vs Cardinals)

    The Pirates have a road trip through Atlanta (4 games) and Philadelphia (3 games) next week; if they're still over .500 when they come home from that it will be a good work. They don't have another off day until the 11th of August, right before they go to Milwaukee, where they always have a difficult time - they have a current nine-game losing streak at Miller and have won there only three times in the last five years.

    The Bucs optioned Pedro Ciriaco and Josh Harrison to Indianapolis and moved Evan Meek from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL. Those moves are likely preludes to activating Ronny Cedeno and Jason Grilli.

    -- MWE
    3. Mike Emeigh  posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:09 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Oh yeah:

    Steve Pearce and Jose Tabata are on rehab assignments and Pedro Alvarez has starting hitting very well at Indy, so the Bucs will have a few more roster decisions to make in the next week or two. Have to think that Brandon Wood and Xavier Paul are on the bubble, maybe Matt Diaz (whose power has all but vanished) as well.

    -- MWE
    4. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:14 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'm predicting that the Cardinals take at least 2 of 3 and the Pirates begin a slide back to the middle of the pack. I'm hoping that the Pirates take at least two of three and continue to win and end up winning the division.
    5. asinwreck posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:21 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    That park deserves this kind of excitement. Hope it lasts for a while.
    6. Anonymous Observer posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:25 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'm hoping that the Pirates take at least two of three and continue to win and end up winning the division.


    Despite being a Cardinals fan, this wouldn't bother me in the slightest. In fact, I think it would be rather refreshing if the Pirates kept it going.
    7. spike posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:28 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The Pirates have a road trip through Atlanta (4 games) and Philadelphia (3 games) next week;

    Ouch - two teams that are good, have been very good lately, and are very very good at home.
    8. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Fielder posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:49 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So, how cool would an Indians-Pirates World Series be?
    9. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama  posted on July 22, 2011 at 04:53 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    That's great that there is a frenzy in PGH. Good for them. I remember their (hated**) 70s teams never drew that well, kind of like ATL during their long run.

    ** by me and all fans Phillie
    10. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:03 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    That's great that there is a frenzy in PGH. Good for them. I remember their (hated**) 70s teams never drew that well, kind of like ATL during their long run.


    Even when Three Rivers Stadium was full, it felt empty. A horrible, horrible, horrible place to watch a baseball game. Horrible.
    11. Dale Sams posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:22 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Have they started playing "We are Family" yet?

    We'll give you Wakefield*, Lowrie, and Reddick for McCutchen.

    *Or Lackey, I just thought Wake would have a 'feel-good' angle to it.
    12. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:22 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    They don't have another off day until the 11th of August, right before they go to Milwaukee, where they always have a difficult time - they have a current nine-game losing streak at Miller and have won there only three times in the last five years


    They also end the season in Milwaukee with a 3 gamer. That would be something if those two played down to the wire.

    by the way Fox recently moved that mid August Saturday game between Pit/Mil to its afternoon TV broadcast schedule. Not saying they'll get Buck/McCarver, but have those two ever been to a Pirates game while working together?
    13. Padraic posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:26 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0


    The Pirates have a road trip through Atlanta (4 games) and Philadelphia (3 games) next week; if they're still over .500 when they come home from that it will be a good work.


    Dream bigger! They only have to go 3-7 over the Cards/Braves/Phils stretch to stay above .500. 2-8 still keeps them even.
    14. asinwreck posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:29 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Even when Three Rivers Stadium was full, it felt empty. A horrible, horrible, horrible place to watch a baseball game. Horrible.


    I remember going to a September 1995 game there against the Padres that had an announced attendance of about 6,000. Didn't seem like there were more than 200 people in the stands, and it felt like a morgue. Quietest game I've ever attended, including Pac-10, Little League, and pickup games in the park.
    15. Dale Sams posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:33 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    By the way, we were talking about how the 'Adrian Gonzalez trade was the biggest steal ever' the other day...as far as I can tell none of the pieces the Pirates got in the Jason Bay trade are on their MLB roster. And Sox got 1 1/2 years of Bay as opposed to the year AGon had left.
    16. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:34 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    We'll give you Wakefield*, Lowrie, and Reddick for McCutchen.


    Holy crap, if Dale is giving up Lowrie, he REALLY likes McCutchen!

    Fox execs would kill themselves if we got a Pirates/Indians World Series. Go Pirates and Indians!
    17. Dale Sams posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:36 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    and it felt like a morgue


    Watching that 'MLB classic' game against the Cubs, the one that had all the crazy comebacks, is a surreal experience...."Hey! it's Barry Bonds!"
    18. Dale Sams posted on July 22, 2011 at 05:45 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Fox execs would kill themselves if we got a Pirates/Indians World Series. Go Pirates and Indians!


    Good. Maybe the successors would give us a day WS game** and earlier times. Go Pirates and Indians!!

    Who are we kidding? They'd just expand the playoffs to insure that all of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies* and Braves make it every year.

    *and seriously, congrats to The Phils and their fans for making it.

    **How do advertising rates work? I know a day game wouldn't draw as well as a night game, but it would stomp the #### out of its competition. Couldn't Fox sell it to the advertisers on that and the novelty factor?
    19. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:02 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    If any team needs to blow its proverbial wad on Carlos Beltran, it's the Pirates.
    20. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:22 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Is PNC just playing much bigger than it used to? Every Pirates starter has a lower BABIP than in their previous year, in some cases significantly. And none of them are groundballers with the exception of Charlie Morton.
    21. TerpNats posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:29 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So, how cool would an Indians-Pirates World Series be?
    It's been a bad enough week for Rupert Murdoch. Why make it worse?
    22. cardsfanboy  posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:48 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    It's been a bad enough week for Rupert Murdoch. Why make it worse?


    You have to ask? or was that sarcasm?
    23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:53 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Is PNC just playing much bigger than it used to? Every Pirates starter has a lower BABIP than in their previous year, in some cases significantly. And none of them are groundballers with the exception of Charlie Morton.


    It's amazing what not having the worst defense in the majors will do for a pitching staff.
    24. Mike Emeigh  posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:54 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Dream bigger! They only have to go 3-7 over the Cards/Braves/Phils stretch to stay above .500. 2-8 still keeps them even.


    I know, which is why I said what I did. Going through Atlanta and Philly, given they way those two teams have played lately, could easily be a seven-game losing streak waiting to happen.

    If any team needs to blow its proverbial wad on Carlos Beltran, it's the Pirates.


    Not a bad idea. Question would be what it would take to get a deal done. I'm really not sure that the Pirates have what the Mets would want.

    I'm guessing that the Pirates will be looking for pitching, maybe in conjunction with a bat. The bullpen has been showing some signs of leaking lately (KRod would have been an interesting get) and they really don't have a rotation horse.

    Late note: Pirates officially activate Cedeno, also activate Pearce and option Chris Leroux to AAA (he'll be replaced by Grilli in the pen).

    -- MWE
    25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:55 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    as far as I can tell none of the pieces the Pirates got in the Jason Bay trade are on their MLB roster


    Morris will be at the end of the year - he isn't eligible for the R5 until this offseason.
    26. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity posted on July 22, 2011 at 06:59 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    How do advertising rates work? I know a day game wouldn't draw as well as a night game, but it would stomp the #### out of its competition. Couldn't Fox sell it to the advertisers on that and the novelty factor?

    For the most part, they're determined by ratings in the 18-49 demo, with other factors (affluence, gender) giving nudges in either direction. And advertisers don't pay for winning a timeslot, they pay for delivering eyeballs. You can run circles around Judge Judy, but if you're getting half the demo you'd get in prime time, you're getting half the demo.
    27. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:00 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    This is a big weekend. IIRC, this about the time when Bernie Miklasz proclaimed the Cards clinched the division last year after sweeping the Reds.
    28. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:35 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    It's amazing what not having the worst defense in the majors will do for a pitching staff.


    Has the D become one of the best, then? There are some ugly peripherals in that rotation, with the possible exception of Karstens.

    The Pirates are fairly awash in prospects right now, but I'm not sure they'd be willing to part with what might be necessary, since they're not going to want to pay all of Beltran's salary for the rest of the year.
    29. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:43 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Morris will be at the end of the year - he isn't eligible for the R5 until this offseason.


    I had high hopes for Morris, but it doesn't look good for to help much in 2013 or beyond... terribly pedestrian numbers for a 24-year old repeater at AA.

    Lincoln, on the other hand, is like the Phoenix rising from the ashes. Hopefully he can keep up the good work at Indy and be ready for when one of the five starters either gets hurt or struggles.
    30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:46 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    since they're not going to want to pay all of Beltran's salary for the rest of the year


    Why not? We have payroll room.
    31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:47 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The Pirates are fairly awash in prospects right now, but I'm not sure they'd be willing to part with what might be necessary, since they're not going to want to pay all of Beltran's salary for the rest of the year.

    The new owners will spend. I think the prospects are the issue, not the $.

    I'd be inquiring on C Pena, Beltran and Anibel Sanchez. H Pence would be interesting, but I'd be too afraid PNC would kill his offense.
    32. Textbook Editor posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:48 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Do the Pirates even have the pieces to get Beltran (even if they picked up all the $ left)? That's certainly a play I'd make.

    The 1B upgrade sounds like it's more the pressing need, from an offense standpoint.

    Man, it would be insanely cool for the Pirates to sneak into the playoffs.
    33. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:52 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The new owners will spend. I think the prospects are the issue, not the $.


    Agreed... I think the Pirates can't really afford to give up valuable prospects and Beltran's too valuable to other teams for the Mets not to be able to get better than what the Pirates can offer.
    34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:53 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Do the Pirates even have the pieces to get Beltran (even if they picked up all the $ left)? That's certainly a play I'd make.

    What do you think Beltran fetches? Maybe a B and a C prospect.

    I don't think anyone is giving up a top-50 prospect for Beltran.
    35. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on July 22, 2011 at 07:54 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Has the D become one of the best, then? There are some ugly peripherals in that rotation, with the possible exception of Karstens.


    Karstens and Maholm are about a run up from where they should be, based on periphs, which still leaves them in good position if they regress going forward. The other starters are pretty much bang on.

    Some of the starters have low K rates, but that's not the same thing as bad periphs. Morton, for example, is only at a 5.29 K/9, but he's generating 61% ground balls (with an accompanying effect on his HR rate). That makes up for a lot.
    36. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:00 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The 1B upgrade sounds like it's more the pressing need, from an offense standpoint.


    Picking up Beltran would shift Jones to 1B.
    37. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:05 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    What do you think Beltran fetches? Maybe a B and a C prospect.


    Beltran will get a lot more than that. He's the best "gettable" player available, IMO. Anyone who needs hitting has Beltran at the top of their list. I think Beltran gets 3 B prospects or 1 A and 1 C. And the Pirates can't afford either of those prices, even though I would love to go the last two months with the "problem" of finding playing time for Beltran, Presley, and Tabata in the two corner OF spots. Playing Beltran in RF with Cutch in CF and either Presley or Tabata in LF would give the Pirates a mind-blowingly awesome OF defense and some pretty good offense, to boot.
    38. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:13 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Picking up Beltran would shift Jones to 1B.


    Doesn't really solve the problem... I wonder how tempted NH is to bring up Matt Curry and see if Curry can't take advantage of some MLB pitching before he gets around the league once. Curry is just RAKING right now at Altoona (352/395/563). His first 100 at bats at AA were not so good, but these last 71 are pretty exciting.

    Matt Hague is probably a more realistic candidate, although the Pirates would have to make room on the 40 for either of those guys.
    39. Kiko Sakata  posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:13 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Beltran will get a lot more than that. He's the best "gettable" player available, IMO. Anyone who needs hitting has Beltran at the top of their list. I think Beltran gets 3 B prospects or 1 A and 1 C. And the Pirates can't afford either of those prices


    Well, it certainly can't hurt for the Pirates to make an offer. Maybe they get lucky and nobody else offers an A, either. Or maybe the Pirates have a guy that the Mets see as a B+ but the Pirates see as a B-. Certainly, one should never get one's hopes up about trades, but the Pirates should definitely make as serious an offer as they can for Beltran. And as a backup, I would think they could get Carlos Pena fairly cheaply: he's on a one-year deal here in Chicago, and it's not like he's become a fan favorite this season or anything.
    40. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:20 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0


    Well, it certainly can't hurt for the Pirates to make an offer.


    I'm sure that the Pirates have already made an offer (or three)... I just think the Mets will get a better offer. And the Pirates only have B prospects in the minors right now (except for Taillon) and not very many of them (Sanchez perhaps, Marte maybe, Allie if you ignore what he's actually done this year, Lincoln if you're a little drunk). Everyone else is basically C or below, IMO (or at least TBD). The Pirates just suffer from having either pieces that they can't afford to give up or pieces that aren't very interesting... there's really nothing in between.
    41. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:32 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Beltran will get a lot more than that. He's the best "gettable" player available, IMO. Anyone who needs hitting has Beltran at the top of their list. I think Beltran gets 3 B prospects or 1 A and 1 C.

    Wow, I don't think it gets near that high.

    Was there an A prospect involved in any of the Lee, Halladay and Oswalt deals?
    42. Mike Emeigh  posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:45 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    According to Buster Olney, the Pirates did kick the tires on Beltran but aren't in the conversation any more - the Giants, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, and Rangers are still in the mix. Jon Heyman adds the Brewers.

    Personally, I think the Pirates should make a run at Ubaldo Jimenez, who seems a good bet to be traded. Not sure what the Rockies would want in return, though.

    -- MWE
    43. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 08:49 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Justin Smoak was in the Lee deal (#23 prospect pre-2009)
    Kyle Drabek was in the Halladay deal (#25 prospect pre-2010)
    Gose was probably the best prospect in the Oswalt deal, but Happ was really the key to the trade (Happ is crappy now, but he was 12-4 in 2009 for the Phillies).
    44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) posted on July 22, 2011 at 09:02 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Justin Smoak was in the Lee deal (#23 prospect pre-2009)
    Kyle Drabek was in the Halladay deal (#25 prospect pre-2010)
    Gose was probably the best prospect in the Oswalt deal, but Happ was really the key to the trade (Happ is crappy now, but he was 12-4 in 2009 for the Phillies).

    Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
    45. Russ posted on July 22, 2011 at 09:25 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Oh, how the mighty have fallen.


    That's the problem with those A prospects... they're like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get.
    46. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on July 22, 2011 at 09:30 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Matt Hague is probably a more realistic candidate, although the Pirates would have to make room on the 40 for either of those guys.


    Hague isn't any better than Overbay.

    Doesn't really solve the problem...


    Why not? You don't think Beltran would out-hit Overbay for the rest of the year?
    47. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer posted on July 22, 2011 at 09:30 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    If money isn't the barrier to the Pirates playing for Beltran, could they try to make for a lack of A-level prospects by offering to take more of Beltran's remaining money than other bidders? Or do we assume that somebody will offer both superior prospects AND a willingness to eat all of Beltran's remaining money?

    (And, by the way, I can't believe we're talking about the Pirates buying at the trade deadline, or that they might be able to use money to win a deadline-deal bidding war!)
    48. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on July 22, 2011 at 09:34 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Personally, I think the Pirates should make a run at Ubaldo Jimenez, who seems a good bet to be traded. Not sure what the Rockies would want in return, though.


    Marte, Cain, and something else?
    49. spike posted on July 22, 2011 at 10:19 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I don't think the Mets are offering a "Buy It Now" option on Beltran. The money remaining isn't going to change anything for them, so I am pretty sure there is little interest in reducing the return in exchange for cash.

    /and while I can't say wrt to the other teams, neither the Braves nor Phillies position is dire enough to where they will be doling out any A prospects - I keep hearing Minor's name mentioned (who is a B+ BTW), but I find it hard to believe your only MLB ready lefty starter to a division rival in exchange for a 2 month rental of a guy who doesn't really fill your most pressing need (CF).
    50. Eric J can SABER all he wants to posted on July 22, 2011 at 11:00 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

    As of a month ago, Smoak was having a pretty good season - .264/.366/.488 on June 23. Of course, he's hit .101/.167/.127 since then - 8/79 with 2 doubles and 5 walks. That's taken a bit of a bite out of his seasonal line.

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