I’m predicting about 30 home runs during the remainder of 2013 and 50 next year.
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I think that Pirate fans generally see Sano as someone who was in their pocket, but who was lost because of some combination of bungling by Pirate management or unfair dealing by Sano's agent.
Do Twins fans see him as someone they plucked away against all odds?
How much is a #20 prospect worth on average?
As an exercice, (building on Jose's pont), if we magically knew for certain that Hamilton's career would match Posednik's or perhaps Pierre's, but knew nothing of everyone else's future, where would Hamilton fall on this list? How much is a #20 prospect worth on average?
Hamilton's... a better hitter than Nixon was
but I remember him doing that a lot.
One reason why Nixon's extra base hits are so low, and perhaps a reason why he translated well to the majors, is that he was an exceptionally good bunter. I don't know how to look up how many of his hits were bunt singles, but I remember him doing that a lot.
Hamilton's roughly twice the base-stealer either of them was,
Not really. He attempts steals much more often but he gets caught at about the same rate (ideally we'd have pickoffs in here too). The value of base-stealing is primarily in the rate, not the number, and their rates were fairly similar (better than Nixon, worse than Bourn).
Hamilton is listed at 6'1" 160. He's not going to develop power.
Interesting thing about Castillo is how much we talk about power being so important... the ability to at least potentially hurt a pitcher if he just grooves pitches. Yet Castillo, with no power, was able to get on base at a really high clip. Why would pitchers not throw him strikes?
Surprised not to see Wilmer Flores crack the top 100, given his age and his big 2012.
What are your thoughts about Hamilton vs. Adam Eaton? He's another fast guy with no power, but Eaton's OBP is much much better than Hamilton's.
He was 20th in the EL in OPS
Arcia also played half the year in the FSL, where he was 4th in OPS (Flores was 29th), Arcia also outhit Flores in 2011- the guy who led the 2012 FSL in OPS was just 20, Nick Castellanos, and BA ranked him #21.
He better stick at 2B.
I was under the impression that Adam Eaton is not at all "another fast guy", but instead a tweener with no more than above-average speed who probably doesn't have the tools for center field.
When all was said and done, BIS data predicted a 9.1% BB rate, while PFX predicted a 7.8% rate. Eaton's actual BB rate was a much higher 13.6%. Using Statcorner's AAA plate discipline stats, Eaton had almost identical swing and contact rates in AAA last year, only posting a 9% BB rate. Before that, he did put up consistent double-digit walk rates, but we don't have any plate discipline stats to analyze.
With Eaton's speed and below-average, but not poor, power, I expect his Zone% to be more like the PFX data, above average. The projections at FanGraphs show the fans having a higher confidence he can continue to walk, one of the few times I'll actually defer to the systems.
Am I doing something wrong? I see him at 12th.
Nobody was excited about Quilvio Veras (very interesting minor league numbers) or Luis Castillo that I recall.
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