Guess I can delete the Word document I got up on my computer. This is better anyway.

One thing I'd like to see happen is Aceves punted. I don't think it makes sense to make the moves they've made in the interest of a positive clubhouse and keep him around. He's not so good that he's a "must have." That said I love the bullpen. Two lefties give Farrell some flexibility and Tazawa, Uehara and Bailey are a 7-8-9 set up that I think should be expected to be very good.

My other hope is that Kalish gets the LF job ahead of Nava. I think there is upside with Kalish that does not exist with Nava. In both of Nava's MLB stints he has faded badly after a fast start. I think he is a classic guy who can do some things but gets exposed as teams see him. I don't think Kalish is likely to be worse than Nava and I think he has a good chance to be better.

If they can’t, there isn’t really any point in projecting anything, because the Sox won’t win. I can understand the case for Dale Sams style pessimism of “they’re terrible until they prove they aren’t

I got a shout-out!

'Behaving like a normal baseball organization' would do wonders for my confidence. I would also note:

Last year the Sox paid about 55 million to four players for 2.1 WAR.

If we take the new guys salaries and compare them to last year we have:

Gomes, 5 mill, 1.6 WAR
Napoli, (if they sign him), 13 mill, 1.4 WAR
Dempster, 13 mill, 3.6 WAR
Victorino, 13 mill 2.4 WAR
Drew 9 mill, -.5 WAR

No real point. I just thought it was interesting. Those numbers are a bit underwhelming but a lot better than the fab four.

also, re: 'How much they have to spend next year'. Doesn't the tax penalty reset, so theoreticly, they can spend as much as they want in 2014?

The 2014 luxury tax threshold is $189M, an increase of $11M from the 2010-2012 threshold. So there's an extra $10M to play with, along with money they likely won't spend this year and money freed up from contracts ending.

Are those tax threshold numbers, CBA numbers or are they fluid? Meaning are they set in stone or based on something like annual FA averages or some other formula?

The luxury tax payroll is calculated based on contract AAV (so Ortiz' salary for luxury tax reasons is $13M even though he makes $14.5M this year), and it is re-calculated at the end of the year to include incentives, length of time on the roster, and so on.

The luxury tax payroll calculation also includes salaries for players on the 40-man but not on the 25-man, as well as some other random costs. A good rule of thumb is that the major league roster has a luxury tax threshold ~$12M under the official number.

That isn’t enough to justify great confidence in a 90+ win team in 2014.  I can definitely see the case for Jittery McFrog style pessimism here, that the Sox have failed to position themselves as true contenders for either 2013 or 2014.  I’m willing to wait and see.  2014 is still a ways off, and given the cost in talent or dollars for front-line stars, I don’t see a path to 2013 contention that I would have preferred the Sox to take.

My pessimistic take on this: 2014 will give us worse projections for Ortiz, Ross, Gomes, Victorino, and Napoli. Is Pedroia to the point of regression yet? Either way, let's say your eyeballing projection of 86 wins for 2013 is right on. Wouldn't this same roster, next year, project slightly worse? Not wildly, but something like 2-3 overall wins, combined? I'm only thinking of Middlebrooks and Drew as guys who would potentially project to be better in 2014 than in 2013.

Sorry if this is an overly simplistic point (or a wrong one, but please correct me!), but I think that's why I'm a bit... confused about this off-season. I like that they're not into Victorino, etc, for the long term, but they will all still be under contract next year. Which is going to mean a need for even more improvement to get to 90+ wins, but with less roster spots available.

I'm only thinking of Middlebrooks and Drew as guys who would potentially project to be better in 2014 than in 2013.

Doubront, not Drew, right? Plus Lavarnway, maybe Kalish. The other note of optimism is that the Sox are hoping to have Rubby De La Rosa in the rotation and Jackie Bradley Jr in the outfield in 2014, with Bogaerts, Barnes, and Webster all possible additions as well. (Or any of those guys could be traded for MLB talent.)

I don't mean to imply that I think getting to 90+ wins will be easy. As I said, it looks like 2014 is a hill to climb, and the moves this offseason have made it more likely that the Sox will be non-shitty in 2014 bu they have not made it that likely that the Sox will be as good as they ought to be. I'm just feeling that with 15-16 months before the 2014 season starts, there's room to wait and see and not be overly pessimistic.

One thing about 2014 is the Sox will have the money and a spot in the outfield to acquire a star-caliber player. Now, that player may already be here in the form of Jacoby Ellsbury but at least they have that opening and the money to spend. I think that's the key to 2014. They've built a bit in reverse of what Duquette did in 1998-2001. They have the surrounding pieces, the key now is finding that superstar. They have the money for it and between an outfield spot and shortstop I think they have the roster spots to put that player in.

I can definitely see the case for Jittery McFrog style pessimism here

Oh no, I didn't mean to spearhead a style of pessimism!

For a moment let me try not to be a complete pessimist: even though I do not agree with the Sox strategy this offseason, there is enough upside on the roster for a pleasantly surprising season. Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, maybe de la Rosa or Iglesias are young, any of them could take big step forward. Pedroia could stay healthy, Lester could return to being Lester. Who knows what Ellsbury is at this point, but maybe he's much closer to his MVP self than he looked last year. Maybe not being managed by Bobby Valentine will bring out the best in the team.

From a simple rooting perspective next year should be fun. It's essentially a given that this team will be more fun to root for than last year's, but I think it'll be much much better. I expect I'll quite enjoy rooting for Victorino, as ambivalent as I may be about his signing; seems like my sort of player. Assuming Napoli's not broken, we should once again have a 1Bman who can hit some dingers. Dempster instead of Beckett is a massive upgrade in the easy-to-root-for department. I'm eager to see more from Middlebrooks and Tazawa, and I'm pretty hopeful about Lavarnway.

I'm not actually that pessimistic about the team per se, I just think they had a hell of an opportunity and didn't make the best of it. Not making the best of it might still be enough. If so, I'll gladly eat my words and go along for the ride.

Can we do a best-case scenario evaluation, MCoA?

Let's sat Pedroia performs in his "I'm better than Cano I swear" manner, and Ellsbury, maybe not out-of-his-mind levels, but plays like he should and doesn't get injured.
Let's say Will Middlebrooks performs at his "I want to be the next D-Wright/Evan Longoria" level, or at least Youkilis level.

Let's say Gomes is replacementish level, and Victorino with his defense is whatever.
Let's say Lackey doesn't have the highest ERA in baseball history.
Let's say Lester and Buchholz pitch as they should, or close to it, along with Dempster.

What do we need at this point? To be contenders for 90+ in 2014, we need a legit outfielder, we could use a short stop, and we could use a catcher.
And we could definitely use a starting pitcher.
Edit: I guess De La Rosa might be that SP, but I have massive doubts.

I'm fairly confident, if anything, in our bullpen. Lots of depth, some of those guys will be traded to shuffle the roster a bit.

Who do we target, how do we get there..and if all "goes well" how do we get to 90+ in 2014? Short stop..Catcher..a SP..an outfielder.. stay healthy..?

If everyone on the team equalled their career best...at the same time, I'm fairly confident they would reach the World Series.

Doubront, not Drew, right?

I was actually thinking just about the hitting side of things, but your post and Jose's make lots of good points. Especially this:

They have the surrounding pieces, the key now is finding that superstar.

That's a very succinct articulation of what this off-season has delivered, for better or worse.

Who do we target, how do we get there..and if all "goes well" how do we get to 90+ in 2014? Short stop..Catcher..a SP..an outfielder.. stay healthy..?

In the hypothetical world where "all goes well" I think the following things happen:

- Iglesias demonstrates a whiff of ability to hit AAA pitching. Bogaerts and Marrero make strides in the lower minors and earn mid-year promotions. Iglesias takes over at short in 2014.

- Doubront continues to emerge as a solid mid-rotation starter. Young power lefties who can strike out a batter per inning don't grow on trees. Doubront is a few refinements away from being a real asset.

- Kalish is more recovered from his shoulder injury and hits well enough to be half of a useful platoon in an outfield corner. Justin Upton gets called out by Arizona's ham-fisted ownership and they trade him to Boston next winter for pennies on the dollar. Yay!

My other hope is that Kalish gets the LF job ahead of Nava. I think there is upside with Kalish that does not exist with Nava.
Ryan Westmoreland has a better chance of contributing significant value on the field to the Red Sox than Kalish does. Kalish can't hit.


I think we should all be rooting for Arizona to have a really disappointing season. Guided by the rest of youse guys, I think this offseason's approach can be best understood as the foundational moves in preparation for the acquisition of Justin Upton (or a Justin Upton-type player). And that's how I'm looking at things from now on.

- Iglesias demonstrates a whiff of ability to hit AAA pitching. Bogaerts and Marrero make strides in the lower minors and earn mid-year promotions. Iglesias takes over at short in 2014.

- Doubront continues to emerge as a solid mid-rotation starter. Young power lefties who can strike out a batter per inning don't grow on trees. Doubront is a few refinements away from being a real asset.

- Kalish is more recovered from his shoulder injury and hits well enough to be half of a useful platoon in an outfield corner. Justin Upton gets called out by Arizona's ham-fisted ownership and they trade him to Boston next winter for pennies on the dollar. Yay!

Hah. I am much less excited about Iglesias... I see him desperately trying to get on base and not succeeding. He'll play great D but be a liability at the plate.

Bogaerts seems more Hanley Ramirez-esque but who knows. I still think trading one of them for a possibly realistic short stop would be nice.
Doubront I have not seen enough of but I'll your take word on it that he can be a mid-rotation asset.

Justin Upton I don't like. He's gonna be too expensive, and he has too much of his brother/Carl Crawford in him to make me that excited. I'd rather see us go after someone like Trumbo, and I don't think Kalish is going to be a full time star left fielder in the majors, is he? We need a legitimately productive batter in LF.

We aren't to far from being there, but our SS is still a big question mark, as is one outfield spot, a catcher, and starting pitcher.

Kalish can't hit.

Certainly the last two seasons of lost development are a major concern but through 2010 he was playing like a guy who was capable of becoming a decent MLB player.

Ryan Westmoreland has a better chance of contributing significant value on the field to the Red Sox than Kalish does. Kalish can't hit.

How Ryan Kalish of all people could generate an irrational hatred is beyond me, considering he's barely been around.

I am much less excited about Iglesias... I see him desperately trying to get on base and not succeeding. He'll play great D but be a liability at the plate.

A lineup with above-average bats everywhere else can afford to carry a liability in the nine hole if he's saving you buckets of runs with his D. Obviously it remains to be seen whether the Sox will run out such a lineup, but it's conceivable.

Justin Upton I don't like. He's gonna be too expensive, and he has too much of his brother/Carl Crawford in him to make me that excited. I'd rather see us go after someone like Trumbo, and I don't think Kalish is going to be a full time star left fielder in the majors, is he? We need a legitimately productive batter in LF.

Upton's deal runs through the 2015 season, so three years remaining for a total bill of under $40M. That's entirely reasonable for a power bat just entering his prime. Further, I can't think of two corner outfielders much more dissimilar than Upton J and Crawford. Upton's approach at the plate is light years more advanced than Crawford's (and has been ever since he broke in at 19), and while he's by no means a bad defender he'll never be confused for a CF playing out of position. The guy he reminds me of the most is Giancarlo Stanton, but with slightly less raw power and more speed.

Trumbo, meanwhile, is a year and a half older than Upton and has never shown the ability to consistently get on base at any level. And he's a much worse defender and baserunner. Not a bad player, certainly, but not a guy I'd target, particularly.

Kalish is a good enough defender that he doesn't need to hit like a classic slugging left fielder to be valuable. Before the injury, he looked like a decent bet for a not quite as good as Trot Nixon sort of career. Labrum rehab is brutal, even for non-pitchers, so he's hopefully nearing the end of a long road back. This is probably his make or break season.

How Ryan Kalish of all people could generate an irrational hatred is beyond me, considering he's barely been around.

I know, it's odd, isn't it? I think it's the confluence of several factors - I had high hopes for him, then he had all these setbacks, and then when he finally has a chance to pitch in it's the worst stretch the Red Sox have had in a long time... and he just shits the bed, repeatedly. He LOOKED awful to me at the end of the 2012 season, and I guess a lot of my frustration at last year (and the year before) sort of landed on him. Which is unfair to him, personally, but luckily for him he doesn't care what I think of him. Because I still think he's terrible, will never hit, and needs to be traded while there's still a whiff of bloom left on his blossom.

Which I also feel about Iglesias, minus all the irrational hatred stuff. I just don't think he'll ever hit enough to justify a roster spot, much less a starting spot, and he should also be traded while anything can still be gotten out of him. I fear that spending ANOTHER year 'finding what we have' in Iglesias is going to be the year we finally find out he's actually probably worthless.

Which I also feel about Iglesias, minus all the irrational hatred stuff. I just don't think he'll ever hit enough to justify a roster spot, much less a starting spot, and he should also be traded while anything can still be gotten out of him. I fear that spending ANOTHER year 'finding what we have' in Iglesias is going to be the year we finally find out he's actually probably worthless.

^this. I appreciate Mattbert modifying my opinion of guys like Trumbo and Upton tho. I know that Trumbo isn't the best D or the fastest, but put him in Fenway and in LF and his D is minimized and his bat is maximized. I agree that there are other options, but I am unsure how Justin Upton fits onto the team. I worry about him "fitting in" with the team and that he is frankly, with all his hype, only provided one stellar season. I guess he is still quite young tho.

I was reading this and remain vaguely skeptical on him, but I was unaware of how cheap he was for the next 3 years. That makes it entirely worth it.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31290/is-justin-upton-a-top-10-player (I am not sure if I can link these types of things, sorry guys, new to the rules)

Finding talent like Upton at that price tho, does sound nice. I would like a legit corner OFer instead of Gomes/Victorino being our L/R out there.

I fear that spending ANOTHER year 'finding what we have' in Iglesias is going to be the year we finally find out he's actually probably worthless.

He's a glove guy in AAA at age 22. When should we know what we have?

EDIT: Nevermind.

he should also be traded while anything can still be gotten out of him.

I wonder if the 8.2M the Red Sox spent on signing Jose Iglesias has made them somewhat gun-shy in trading him. When you drop that much money on a 19 year-old prospect, it'll sting not to get a good ROI on him. At least Casey Kelly netted A-Gone.

Does anyone think Iglesias has any trade value right now? I'd be stunned if he did. I think right now it makes more sense to hold him and see what happens. I think the return in an Iglesias trade at this time would be so small that hanging onto him and letting him develop is the way to go. He's got one option left so that's 2013 then you keep him around for a couple years as a backup/defensive replacement. I'd rather that and hope somewhere in there he figures it out at the plate enough to be useful. I mean, if he spends 2014/2015 as Bogaerts' caddy that's not necessarily the worst outcome.

Can't Iglesias become Pokey Reese to Drew's/Bogaert's Mark Bellhorn? If all he is is a defensive specialist and pinch-runner, so be it.

Can't Iglesias become Pokey Reese to Drew's/Bogaert's Mark Bellhorn? If all he is is a defensive specialist and pinch-runner, so be it.

Sure, but he is also one of our top touted prospects that is supposed to be part of this in-organization regrowth everyone keeps talking about. I just don't see him as filling out that role. I see him as being exactly what you say, a defensive sub in the 9th and a pinch runner/backup. Not exactly the savior of our next 10 years.

I wonder if the 8.2M the Red Sox spent on signing Jose Iglesias has made them somewhat gun-shy in trading him

I'd guess that if the Sox have been gun-shy about trading Iglesias, it had more to do with the Spinal Tap drummer / Hogwarts Defense against the Dark Arts teacher shortstop rotation the Sox have run since the Nomar trade. I'd prefer to keep any plausible long term shorstop in the organization, too, if I had that kind of track record. I'd also guess that he never had all that much trade value in the first place, since he never actually hit outside of the AFL.

$8M over four years isn't that much for a prospect. It's hard to make comparisons because most kids who sign outside of the draft system are so young you can't justify a big bonus, and within the draft system a player's free agency is so constrained there aren't many useful comparisons. Junichi Tazawa, a merely ok prospect, got a million per season, compared to Iglesias' $2M per year.

I guess I'm a little surprised at the apparent investment folks had in Iglesias. I've pretty much always seen him as a fringe type. When you never demonstrate an ability to hit a baseball, I keep my distance. I wonder if it's partly a function of the weakness of the Sox farm system before the 2011 draft - Iglesias wasn't much of a prospect, but he was what we had. I hope he breaks out, of course, and pays off the hope and proves me wrong.

Eh, maybe I'm overstating it. Iglesias was BA's #52 prospect before 2011. He jumped up to AA, and after a good spell in the AFL, he wasn't abject in the Eastern League. He probably had significant value then. I don't know if he's had all that much since - his 2011 was truly abject, and 2012 at best showed he hadn't developed as a hitter since he was 20.

I thought the expectations/investment in Iglesias was all about the huge bonus. Isn't the expectation, when you dole out that kind of bonus, that you're getting a special player? Then, at age 20 adjusting to a new world in the USA, he put up a non-embarrassing .285 BA.

I won't be disappointed if he turns into an all-glove averagish player (actually that's a better description of Reese, isn't it?), but a defensive caddy for that kind of bonus has to be a miss.

Isn't the expectation, when you dole out that kind of bonus, that you're getting a special player?

this is absurd. how much is a special player worth? surely more than iglesias' bonus of 6 mil. if you hit 1 of these guys out of 10, you're probably at least coming out even.

I think the mistake with Iglesias was a combination of the club trying to rush him and the press/fans sort of anointing him the 2012 starter back when he signed. In retrospect I wonder if he'd have been better off starting at Salem or Greenville in 2010 and easing his way through the system, learning the craft of hitting a bit more. Instead he started at Portland and while he had the .285 average Darren mentioned it was pretty empty and it was a small sample to boot. Then the next year despite just 70 games and being only 21 he gets thrown to Pawtucket.

In other news and to paraphrase Cliff Clavin; Mike Napoli, what's up with that? When do we start thinking about just moving on and signing Adam Laroche. I kind of get the feeling that Laroche is waiting for a Napoli deal to be finalized because he knows if that falls through he can take that 3/39 deal the Sox offered Napoli.

In other news and to paraphrase Cliff Clavin; Mike Napoli, what's up with that? When do we start thinking about just moving on and signing Adam Laroche. I kind of get the feeling that Laroche is waiting for a Napoli deal to be finalized because he knows if that falls through he can take that 3/39 deal the Sox offered Napoli.

I have no idea what's up with that, although it certainly seems to have progressed beyond the point where the initial "Oh, he got the flu and couldn't fly in to take his physical" rumors are a plausible explanation. Is there a chance he learned that Victorino signed essentially an identical contract and thought (rightly or wrongly) "Hang on, I'm worth more than that guy"? Just spitballin'...

The idea that there is a hang up from the physical seems the most plausible reason but there could be something more odd. I remember that while the JD Drew saga was in part due to the shoulder there was also additional delay because Theo had secretly gotten married and gone on his honeymoon so weird #### happens.

Given the recent track record of this club if the physical turned up something nervy I would simply punt and sign Swisher or Laroche. Bringing in someone pre-broken just seems like a bad idea.

Given the recent track record of this club if the physical turned up something nervy I would simply punt and sign Swisher or Laroche. Bringing in someone pre-broken just seems like a bad idea.

I would strongly, strongly prefer Swisher if it comes to that.

I kind of get the feeling that Laroche is waiting for a Napoli deal to be finalized because he knows if that falls through he can take that 3/39 deal the Sox offered Napoli.

Do you think the Sox would be willing to give up a draft pick for him? By my count it would be the 46thish overall pick (their #7 pick is protected). Should the Sox give up that pick for him?

I have no idea of next year's draft class but if there are talented guys who need convincing to sign, it may even be beneficial to lose the 46thish pick so that the earmarked money could go towards the 7th overall pick or the later-round tough-signing guys.

EDIT: No wait it doesn't work that way. Nevermind my second paragraph. I'm still wrapping my head around the draft implications of the new CBA.

If you want to go over on a particular pick, it's better to have as many other high picks as possible so that you can draft guys in those spots who'll accept underslot deals.

In other news and to paraphrase Cliff Clavin; Mike Napoli, what's up with that? When do we start thinking about just moving on and signing Adam Laroche. I kind of get the feeling that Laroche is waiting for a Napoli deal to be finalized because he knows if that falls through he can take that 3/39 deal the Sox offered Napoli.

According to Edes, it took 52 days to sign J. D. Drew after reaching agreement with him. I don't think there's anything to worry about. If the Sox were really worried, they'd back out. I think they're just dotting i's and crossing t's.

The solution with Drew was to give him a stupid clause that incentivized hiding any injuries from the club, so I hope they don't do that.

this is absurd. how much is a special player worth? surely more than iglesias' bonus of 6 mil. if you hit 1 of these guys out of 10, you're probably at least coming out even.

In the context of international FAs, this is a really, really high bonus. Guys who get it are usually considered top prospects and that's why Iglesias was considered a top prospect. Maybe I went too far in saying that him not making it is a "miss," though. It's probably to be expected in a fair number of top prospects.

Anyone have thoughts on the rumored request of Iglesias for Hanrahan by the Pirates? Trading players for relievers was not quite a winning move last year but if the Sox have decided Iglesias ain't gonna cut it I feel like Hanrahan is as good as they can realistically expect in trade for him.

I'd hate to deal Iglesias just as a fan. The few times I've seen him he is such a treat defensively that he's fun to root for. He makes some plays that are just impossible to comprehend.

Selling low on Iglesias is defensible in the abstract - he might never have more value than this. Selling low on Iglesias in order to pay market value for one year of a good relief pitcher, when the Sox already have an overstocked bullpen, makes absolutely no sense at all.

I am expecting very much not to like the Hanrahan trade. The cost is surely going to be more than just Morales or Aceves, but that would be my clear maximum bid for a reliever.

MLBTR says a deal is close but no word in who the sox are giving up.

Not Iglesias. I'm wondering if it's gonna be Kalish, and this is Reddick for Bailey 2: El-Stupid Boogaloo.

So does this deal mean Bailey is really not plan A for 2013? Or is the thought that they can grab a 1st round pick by making Hanrahan a qualifying offer in 2013 and them assuming he'd walk anyway? I'm at a loss to explain the interest here, especially if it costs us anything of value.

Hanrahan's BB/9 last year was brutal. I don't care for this.

Jim Bowden is saying Sands and Pimentel. That's doesn't seem unreasonable. Whether or not the Sox should be unloading potentially useful resources to land a reliever...well that's a bit more puzzling but Hanrahan should help. They also pick up a 40 man roster slot which might have some value though that would be a pretty horrific reason to make such a deal.

Hanrahan's BB/9 last year was brutal. I don't care for this.

.230 BABIP too.

Now sounds like Hanrahan + one player for Pimentel, Sands, and two players.

Looks like the Sox are clearing out their 40-man roster in one fell swoop.

This doesn't make sense to me, unless it's a prelude to some other deal. The Sox are a little thin on 1B/OF depth which Sands could presumably provide, and they seemed to have plenty of RP depth.

Well, I can't see Pimentel as having any particular value. Sands, though, I wonder how I'd feel about him if he'd come up through the Sox system instead of being thrown in to the Punto Trade. His CAIRO projection is really quite good - 330/459 for a .342 wOBA. That's not a first-choice 1B, but it's a darn good backup at a position where the projected starter can't be immediately penciled in for 150 games. He could also easily be a better LF than Nava/Gomes. And at 25, Sands could still take another step forward. I don't like giving him away for a pretty good reliever.

This isn't Reddick, where the kid had three plus tools and had shown the kind of skill development in the majors that made his breakout reasonably predictable, but it's still not good.

Hanrahan's BB/9 last year was brutal. I don't care for this.

As SoxScout points out over on SoSH:

for a 49 game stretch last year he was a 3.7 BB/9 with 51 K in 45.2 IP and .188/.280/.333 against.

His 10 BB in last 9 IP of last season is obviously not a huge concern for the Red Sox.

Those 10BB in the last 9 IP drive up the rate. And if you look at his career rate, I think you'll see it was an aberration. As I said in the main thread, I don't get the negativity.

And MCoA, slow down on Reddick. His "breakout" 2012 was a 110 OPS+, compared to his 109 OPS+ the year before. Reddick needs to learn how to hit better or he'll be a 4th outfielder or out of baseball in a few years.

And as for Sands, he put up the .900 OPS in the PCL. Let's not forget it's the PCL.

Let's all take a little toke on the objective pipe.