Sunday, May 19, 2013
Cafardo: Dustin Pedroia the best second baseman in MLB?
(www.bostonglobe.com)
Sweet spectroscopy! The argument is rolled out again!
Read More...It’s not surprising to hear what two scouts from each league, who both have watched a lot of the American League this year, say about Dustin Pedroia.
“Nobody is playing his position better in baseball right now than Pedroia,” said the AL scout. “He’s playing out of his mind. The plays he’s making — you just don’t see that stuff every day, but you see it with him every day. Honestly, I’m surprised he doesn’t get hurt ...
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1 2 >The Twins currently have two first basemen. If they want to dump Morneau's salary, I like him a lot as a stopgap. If they're too dumb to see what they have in Parmelee, I like him a lot as a trade target.
Napoli, barring a qualifying offer from the Rangers, looks good to me. I'm intrigued by Berkman. There is zero reason to give Mauro Gomez and Jerry Sands anything other than a minor league contract. If they actually hit and field well enough in AAA to project as good major leaguers, we can work them in after they prove they deserve the job.
Gomez is a butcher in the field, a bad baserunner, and maybe a league average hitter. He sucks. Sands, I haven't watched, but his hitting numbers in the PCL are really uninspiring. I'm guessing he'll project around 320/420 next year.
I have some minor optimism for Sands, unlike Gomez, but Sands needs to improve his AAA production before he deserves an MLB job. He's got an option remaining, so that pretty much settles it for me.
I hope not. Lucas Duda is, though.
Agree on both of those.
Just because the Red Sox have money to spend doesn't mean they should spend it. For example I think the benefit of Sands over Berkman in 2013 is you have a much better chance of finding your 2014 first baseman with Sands than you do with Berkman. If you sign Berkman to a one year deal and he has a good year, you still need a first baseman next winter. Maybe you can resign Berkman but that's not a certainty. If you go with Sands and he busts you're in the same boat, but if he pans out you're in better shape.
I'm not advocating an approach where the Sox should try and win 57 games and then go hell bent for leather next winter. I don't see Berkman (or Youk or Pena) as giving the Sox a chance to have a first baseman down the road. If they can land a non-QO Napoli or Parmelee I like that. I like Morneau largely because I like him but also because the slight edge they would have at re-signing him after the year as an incumbent gives him a bit more value than a Berkman type.
This turn around is going to take some time. If the team wants to try and contend for a wildcard next year during the transition, I'd rather they put most of their eggs into the pitching staff basket because, if they get lucky, at least there is some potential for success with that part of the roster.
And even with a true stopgap like Berkman - after the Ortiz experience, we should acknowledge that a 36-year-old can play his way into your long-term plans, too. And Berkman, unlike Sands, is actually a good major league hitter. (I understand there are injury issues with Berkman, and he may be straight-up retiring, but consider Berkman as a type rather than an individual.)
The thing is, they have $70M to spend. Haren and Morneau are in no way mutually exclusive.
I think they can do better, but playing Gomez/Sands next year has no effect on Morneau being on the 2014-2015 teams. Morneau's current contract runs out after '13.
Part of the reason you would try Sands/Gomez at 1B (or Kalish/Sands/Sweeney in a corner OF spot) is that you get the chance to find out if one of them is actually good and is better than his projections. The Sox have tons of holes to fill, and they probably won't be able to fill them all with projectable above-average players. For at least one position, it makes sense to try a bunch of guys and see if they can come up with a special player or at least a bargain.
Giving him a chance would tell us much more accurately whether he is actually good than MLE-based projections. You can't always wait around until players project statistically to be good before trying them out. No one is saying he should be guaranteed 600 PA's, but they guys is 25 and has played 2 full years at AAA - the Sox should see what they have with this guy.
And in the meantime, the Sox can try out another plausible future contributor in the majors, and that major leaguer will project as a better player in 2013 to boot.
(Also, the Sox have gobs of pitching, but I doubt they'd be terribly interested in parting with anyone good for Morneau.)
I think the parenthetical is problematic for the Sox. With just one year on the deal the Twins probably don't have a ton of reason to unload Morneau unless they get something in return. At the same time since they only have one year left on Morneau I don't see any reason they'd be eager to move Parmelee. The Sox certainly have the pieces to get him but I don't think the Twins have any particular need to rush either guy out the door.
I disagree with that. Or at least I disagree that we would know with the same degree of certainty.
Well that's the ideal, but easier said than done.
Willingness to pay Morneau's salary and Alfredo Aceves?
Morneau hit .290/.371/.531 against RHP last year. If that's washed up, let's get a whole lineup of washed up guys like that.
Platoon him against tough lefties with Sands or Gomez or Lavarnway or whomever and you've got yourself some great first base production.
EDIT: I may be overrating Span, but I've been a fan of his for a long time. He looks to me like a guy who needs a better hitting coach, who has a whole bunch of skills but has stagnated for no good reason. And even if his bat doesn't improve much, his glove and arm can play in RF and his baserunning is a big plus.
Why would benching the major league hitter against tough lefties and playing minor league stiffs make for some great first base production? Are these three guys minor league hitters who hit tough lefties well? There aren't many major league guys who can do this.
The relevant question is whether these guys hit lefties better than Morneau.
I imagine that would have to be Clay Buchholz. Maybe Jon Lester, if the Royals would find only one year plus an option left on his contract acceptable. They might, because of the flexibility it would give them. The Royals aren't going to accept prospects for Hosmer; there would be no reason to do that.
So the Red Sox should pay $14 million, at the least, and give up either a high-level major league prospect, one of their best relievers or one of their few starters (Twins fans will kill them if they accept anything else) for a 32 year-old first baseman who hasn't had a quality full season in four years and who would be a platoon first baseman for one year? Keeping in mind the team will be carrying either 12 or 13 pitchers, which means they don't have the luxury to really platoon, and it's just not prudent.
I think they should try for Napoli at 1B.
And, I am not elevating. I'm being realistic. The Twins aren't going to just dump Morneau without getting something in return. As other people have mentioned, he still has value to them. Teams don't usually give away popular players for nothing unless the fans are clamoring for them to do so.
It's fair to disagree with that assumption, but it's not fair to claim that people want to trade De La Rosa or Barnes for Morneau when all they've said is that they'd like to get Morneau in a salary dump.The Red Sox already have too many relievers. So long as it's not Tazawa (or Bailey, I guess), I'd be happy trading pretty much any of our relievers for Morneau.
If he's only mediocre than the Twins would be getting relief from his over-sized contract in return. But, if the Twins put a big premium on his popularity and the avoidance of fan outrage, the Sox shouldn't be interested at all (or what #38 said).
I do disagree with the assumption that the Twins would just give him away. That ignores the world the Twins operate in. Trading Morneau would have PR consequences, if it's perceived that the Twins did it solely to dump salary. When you finish 66-96, you won't get a positive fan reaction by dumping a ten-year fan favorite and former MVP.
Of course, Minnesota is a different, friendlier place and maybe they want to hold on to Morneau. It doesn't seem crazy to think he might be available for an affordable price. Certainly no crazier than the crazy-town trade in August. After that, almost anything seems possible.
If they can't get fair value they'll hold him until the trade deadline.
go red sox !!
if it wasn´t for fenway, i could hate/love the red sox all my life !
there surely must be a boston red sox kitten on the web somewhere....
Really? It sounds like Minnesota loves giving players to Boston! (I kid!)
Seriously though, do you think Minnesota will try to contend next year? The offense is decent but they have some real pitching problems.
I'd love to see the Sox trade for one of the number of young 1B who have fallen out of favor with their orgs to one degree or another:
Belt: SF played him more regularly down the stretch and he finally hit a little, so the time to buy low may have passed.
Hosmer: Inexplicable bad year, but still has a huge ceiling. The Sox do not have the similarly high ceiling pitcher in the minors KC would want and Buchholz would be too much, so it's hard to see a match. In a vacuum though, he's the guy I'd most want.
Davis: After two injury plagued and disappointing seasons, he ought to come at a discount, but I suspect Alderson is charging retail. Still, a good bet at the right price.
Morrison: Perhaps the perfect intersection of talent and availability. His lefty doubles/line drive stroke would be perfect for Fenway and his outspoken personality would fit the "idiot" tradition in Boston better than it ever did under Loria.
The Cards have Craig and Freese at the infield corners and Holliday and Beltran in the OF corners. Then they also have Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams just about ready for MLB. Behind them, you've got promising Cox (3B) and Taveras (OF). There's a logjam there, and if there is any chance for the Red Sox to pick up a guy named Carpenter, they will certainly do it.
Hey, Justin Smoak is also available!
They've stated that they're looking for three starting pitchers and will try to contend in the weak Central. It got Detroit to the World Series.
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