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Not only do elite players seem less available as FA's, they seem less available for trade
I think 2013 will be the year the Red Sox make the transition from "disappointing would-be contender" to "bad team."
In 2011 they were a disappointing would-be contender and in 2012 they finished in last place.
I agree. But a lot of people seem to be in denial.
My perception is that it has swung the other way and some of that old school irrational Soxland negativity/pessimism has seeped back in.
Regardless, Jose's 78-84 wins sounds about right.
thus contradicting every single post of yours about the Sox in the last 6 months....
Uninspiring. The off season moves were uninspiring. The team looks uninspiring on paper. The team will uninspire their way to 79 wins.
The team looks uninspiring on paper.
...something that has a very slight(5%) possibility(86-89 wins)
Well time does happen, and things do change. But I still am willing to take the under on 80 wins if anyone wants a B-ref bet.
or it's pessimistic to think they only have a 5% chance at 86+ wins
I'm being optimistic in projecting them to improve by 10 wins!
Looking at the ZIPS post, it seems that the Sox are projected to have 38 WAR (assuming I added right). I think a replacement team is somewhere around 46 wins, so that's an 84-win projection.
The Sox haven't been burnt by long contracts.
And I think they could easily be as good or better than NYY.
I'll take that at any dollar amount.
#27: Pooh-pooh them if you wish, but CAIRO projects the team for 83 wins and PECOTA for 86. Ask me to pick between the computer and my bias-addled judgment, and I'll pick the computer every time, thank you very much.
I haven't loved any of the moves this winter (well I liked the Drew signing), but I don't think the team is necessarily worse on paper than Baltimore or Tampa.
The problem I have, which I've belabored elsewhere so I won't here, is the strategy. This was far too conservative an approach for a team with a wad of $ and a bad ML roster.
Really? I've seen this mentioned a couple of other places--not here, mostly--and it frankly seems nuts to me. The Yankees were 26 games better than the Red Sox last year (21 by Pythag, to be fair.) I think the Yankees have probably taken a step back, and Boston a small step forward, but that's a huge gap to make up a single season, let one that could be characterized as "easily."
(And both CAIRO and PECOTA have the Yankees as 4-6 games better, I just now notice.)
I think the Yankees have probably taken a step back, and Boston a small step forward, but that's a huge gap to make up a single season, let one that could be characterized as "easily."
I think Ray is right about Cherington. In a division with some smart guys running teams he's pretty clearly fifth out of the five.
De La Rosa could pitch his way into a rotation slot, but I'd expect he's ticketed for Pawtucket absent a very impressive spring.
De La Rosa has options, though. Morales doesn't, and optioning Aceves doesn't seem prudent given the man in question. De La Rosa could pitch his way into a rotation slot, but I'd expect he's ticketed for Pawtucket absent a very impressive spring.
What should he have done this offseason to move up in the rankings?
I think it's Aceves-Morales-DLR. Generally it makes sense to stretch out Aceves and Morales though because they may need to start and even if they don't they're the long guys out there so the ability to go multiple innings is a plus.
For all the money they spent on a PR firm, they could go a long ways towards just shutting their mouths.
LARRY: "No no...it's not our fault...it's..CARL'S! It's that big contract we gave AGON!"
HENRY: "My hands are tied! (Takes string, loosely wraps string around his wrists) See! Tied!!"
It's too early to say, but if they are mediocre or worse this year, I don't see what's out there next offseason to get back to being a good team.
A quality GM has a plan in place to build a 92-94 win club for 2014. I'm skeptical, but not without hope.
I understand being irked by whatever Lucchino chooses to spew at any given moment, but what comments are you referring to by Henry implying that his hands are tied?
On another note, it turns out from the excerpt above of TFA, Cherington maybe doesn't even deserve credit for The Great Unburdening of last season. That was his one unmitigated positive contribution!
To rehash old discussions a bit, that's what concerns me about all of these 3 year deals to average or slightly better players. When winter 2013-14 rolls around and they have money to spend, there is going to need to be a lot of reshuffling to open up starting spots for better players. Not impossible, surely, but it will take some creativity.
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