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Q: It wouldn't change the amount of money spent?
A: It would change the amount of spent to 15 million dollars a year. What does that buy you in free agency? Very little. One and a half wins.
Q: How is that figure determined?
A: Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you're often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he's usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That's why free agency is never the best way to build. It's a good way to supplement but not build.
Q: So $8 million for one win?
A: It's $9 (million) now. It was $8 (million) two yeas ago. I think at the end of this year they figured out it was nine. And when those wins come in the win curve are important. What does that win mean if it's the difference between 80 and 81? Very little. But if that win's the difference between 89 and 90, that could be a meaningful win.
"It's not money". Exactly. I'd like to have at least *one* Red Sox on the team, that every time he comes to the plate, I think "He could jack this one."
So we can’t just say about any free agent or trade target, oh, he’s an injury risk, he shouldn’t be signed. It’s fair to perhaps take injury into account a bit more than normal, but no player has a perfect track record of health, and anyone heading into the free agent or trade market has a red flag somewhere.
They can still go after________. Why wouldn't they want him playing 81 games at Fenway? He'd hit 30 HR's there.
2. How long until the first trade between the Indians and Red Sox?
It will be a mild surprise if the two franchises don’t strike at least one trade this winter.
The environment is ideally suited to a deal: The front offices know each other well, and they have been frequent trading partners. The Indians are coming off a 94-loss season and could begin another rebuild by trading the likes of outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, closer Chris Perez and starting pitcher Justin Masterson. Each could fill an area of need for the Red Sox, who have financial flexibility thanks to their August blockbuster with the Dodgers.
On top of that, new Cleveland manager Terry Francona has intimate knowledge of Boston’s prospects through his tenure with the Red Sox. John Farrell, the new skipper in Boston, had a good relationship with Masterson when the right-hander was a Red Sox prospect during Farrell’s time as the Boston pitching coach.
Antonetti was clear Saturday to stress that Aviles brings strength to the Tribe’s bench as a player who can step in and play for Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis or Lonnie Chisenhall, and who can provide quality as a right-handed hitter with past success against left-handed pitching. Aviles hit .286 in 158 plate appearances in 2012.
But what if Aviles isn’t just a utility player, and what if Rogers isn’t the only player Antonetti is considering trading while his value is at its height?
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