I would really like to know what Linares could do in the Majors. It'd be nice to be getting him some time in there right now, but the Sox seem more interested in getting ABs for Scott Podsednik (33 PA in the past 2 weeks). Alternatively, it would be nice to be seeing more of what Kalish and Nava have to offer. I'm really confused about why the Sox management wouldn't feel the same way.

At 1B, Mauro Gomez's great minor league #s and .297 .346 .459 in the bigs (looks like a $22 mil. player!) make a strong case that he could be a cheap 1B option next year. The obvious question is his defense. If it's adequate, as Sox Prospects indicates, then he's a real candidate for a near-full-time job in 2013. If it's as bad as BBRef says, he's not a real option. I'd love him to also get some more playing time in these meaningless games. (Loney, who I hoped might blossom away from LA, and still might, hasn't done much.)

I would really like to know what Linares could do in the Majors. It'd be nice to be getting him some time in there right now, but the Sox seem more interested in getting ABs for Scott Podsednik (33 PA in the past 2 weeks). Alternatively, it would be nice to be seeing more of what Kalish and Nava have to offer. I'm really confused about why the Sox management wouldn't feel the same way.

It's really hard for me not to blame this on Bobby V. Clearly Podsednik has no place on the next good Red Sox team, and both Nava and Kalish very well might. On Linares, though, there seems to be an organization-wide consensus that he's worse than his stats. Some folks at SoSH have suggested he is entirely flummoxed by AAA breaking stuff and thus would be overmatched in the majors. But he's hit either way, and I'd rather see him get a shot.

I think that the slightly underwhelming outfield is partly a function of graduations. Ryan Kalish had a second season mostly lost to injury, but he's still a legit prospect who could be a major contributor next year. Daniel Nava appears to have taken a big qualitative step forward as a hitter and as a fielder, and he looks like he should be at least a 75% regular next year. Josh Reddick developed into an excellent major league... what? oh.

I'm definitely intrigued by the Gomez/Lefty X plan for 1B next year. Looking at random talent to poach, the Twins don't appear to be giving Chris Parmelee the playing time he deserves.

Daniel Nava appears to have taken a big qualitative step forward as a hitter and as a fielder, and he looks like he should be at least a 75% regular next year

I sure hope not.

You wanna give 400-500 PA's at a spot where hitting is relatively cheap to acquire to Nava? He's 30 next year, and he's shown no real offensive skills except being able to get on base against righties at Fenway. He's put up a 102 OPS+ playing LF, and that's with his PA's slanted towards his strenths, IIRC. His outfield play and baseruning are meh. There's gotta be a better option in all of pro ball for the Boston Red Sox and their newfound disposable stacks at LF in 2013 than Daniel Nava/Some Other Cheap Platoon Guy.

I don't mind him on the 40 man, mind you, and he's an easy guy to root for, but c'mon.

Teddy gets to a point I've been thinking about a fair bit the last couple of days. I don't think Nava is a bad player and this is true of several other guys the Sox might be bringing back next year; the Gomez platoon option, Ross, Saltalamacchia, Aviles...the problem is they are all good support players. Evaluating what the Sox should do with any of these players worth to the Sox requires at least some recognition I think that any of these players should also be considered replaceable as the Sox are currently in need of a star caliber player. I think it is difficult to expect the Sox to be a serious contender for with anyone on the current roster as their best player.

teddy's entirely right about Nava. I should probably pay more attention to the team I theoretically blog about.

I think Jose summarizes it well. You're not going to get a star to fill every hole we have. One of the many possibilities is that we end up with a hole at a corner OF spot, and Nava/Ross/Kalish is a good option for that.

I think it is difficult to expect the Sox to be a serious contender for with anyone on the current roster as their best player.

I think a team with Pedroia as its best player could easily be a contender. His numbers this year are down mostly because of a stretch where he played hurt. A healthy Clay Buchholz could also be the best player on a contender.

Or Lester or Ellsbury.

I don't think Pedroia can truly be that player. I think a scenario where you compete when he's your best player requires no holes elsewhere in the lineup. It's tough to build a club with that expectation.

Ellsbury CAN be that player. My problem with him is how unlikely I think it is. In five MLB seasons he's got one great season, two injured seasons and two very ordinary seasons. Again, I think it's a matter of expectation and I don't think the sox should be counting on Jaciby Ellsbury to be a star.

I agree that Lester and Buchholz could be that player. I was thinking more of position players.

I don't think Pedroia can truly be that player. I think a scenario where you compete when he's your best player requires no holes elsewhere in the lineup. It's tough to build a club with that expectation.

He's won an MVP. I think he's just as good now as he was then.

The "can you win it all with him as your best player" question seems way more suited to basketball than to baseball. The Red Sox need lots more good players, but I don't know that any single one of those new players has to be better than every player they've currently got.

The "can you win it all with him as your best player" question seems way more suited to basketball than to baseball. The Red Sox need lots more good players, but I don't know that any single one of those new players has to be better than every player they've currently got.

I totally agree. Also, a lineup which has a good-but-not-great player at every position is much less susceptible to having the whole season go down due to an injury or two than a lineup based on star players.

The question in baseball is much more, "can you win it all with this core?" Even though baseball is an individual game, evaluating a baseball team is all about the collective.

Pedroia-Ellsbury-Ortiz-Lester-Buccholz is a core that, to me, only maybe could win it all. If you get everyone on a good year, on a healthy year, then that's a playoff core. But I would definitely want two more core talents before I projected them as a good contender and playoff club. The job of the offseason is going to be firing Valentine, but then the next job of the offseason with be disinfecting the manager's office, but after that, Ben will have to find a way to acquire not just complementary talent, but one or two more stars.

Pedroia-Ellsbury-Ortiz-Lester-Buccholz is a core that, to me, only maybe could win it all.

Sure. There are some other guys on the roster who might be good enough to contribute at the level of "core" players. Middlebrooks was awfully good most of this year, and seems like a raw enough talent to have a good chance to get a lot better in a hurry. What will a healthy John Lackey do? Was his decline related to the injury, and if so, will he rebound to all-star caliber when he returns from injury? They need to acquire some real talent at 1B, but if Middlebrooks and Lackey step up and are +3.0 WAR players, which seems plausible, then they can probably get by with guys like Saltalamacchia filling other positions.

CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
LF J Hamilton
1B/DH Napoli
DH/1B Ortiz
3B Wily Mo Middlebrooks
RF Kalish/Nava etc
C Saltaralphmaccio
SS barf

Sorry for the non-sequitur lineup

The job of the offseason is going to be firing Valentine, but then the next job of the offseason with be disinfecting the manager's office, but after that, Ben will have to find a way to acquire not just complementary talent, but one or two more stars.

They have to go hard after Justin Upton. Everyone in the minor league system bar Bogaerts and Bradley should probably be on the table.

LF J Hamilton
1B/DH Napoli

If they do that, they should have just kept Gonzo and Crawford.

Nice roundup, Jose, by the way...

If they do that, they should have just kept Gonzo and Crawford.

I can't see Hamilton and Napoli costing as much as Gonzalez and Crawford. Also, the Red Sox got a bit of talent back for Gonzalez and Crawford in the deal. If they can expect the same performance from Hamilton and Napoli, then that would definitely be a good set of moves to make.

If they do that, they should have just kept Gonzo and Crawford.at L.A.

Uh, well sample sizes be damned! but this is Gonzo's line in LA thus far..233/287/372 OPS+...81! Oh and the celebrated homer he hit in his first game in LA...yeah, it's the only one thus far.

As for Crawford, we won't know for sure until next year, but I'm expecting him to continue sucking...no analysis needed.

Surely Hamilton and Napoli will exceed that.

I agree with Mattbert about Hamilton/Napoli. It seems unwise to me to unload bad contracts then sign a couple of guys who look likely to be bad contracts themselves.

On the minor league front NBCSports is televising tonight's one game playoff between Pawtucket and Reno (Arizona) for the AAA Championship of the World! All kidding aside it's kind of a neat thing and it's not only a chance to see the Sox minor leaguers but Trevor Bauer is scheduled to start for Reno again Nelson Figueroa.

I can see the case for Hamilton - he's a truly brilliant baseball talent, and he might be well served to take up a low-stress defensive job like Fenway LF and just focus on hitting. You're taking on huge risks by signing Hamilton, for all the obvious reasons, but I can see the case for his upside.

Napoli makes no sense to me at all. Outside of one fluke season (powered by a BABIP 40 points above his career average), Napoli has never been a good enough hitter to be a real asset at 1B/DH. The Red Sox have depth at catcher, so they wouldn't need him there. What's his purpose? (I guess if the Sox traded Lavarnway as part of a deal to get another star, you might do some sort of job-sharing with Napoli and Salty, but Napoli's likely to want a lot of money for that job.)

Uh, well sample sizes be damned! but this is Gonzo's line in LA thus far..233/287/372 OPS+...81! Oh and the celebrated homer he hit in his first game in LA...yeah, it's the only one thus far.

As for Crawford, we won't know for sure until next year, but I'm expecting him to continue sucking...no analysis needed.

Surely Hamilton and Napoli will exceed that.

Well, if the Sox sold high on Crawford and Gonzalez, good for them. But if Crawford and Gonzalez suck now, then it's not useful to compare possible acquisitions to them. The bar for major new signings has to be set much, much higher than "not terrible".

I guess the case for Napoli would be that he'll improve as a hitter once he's not forced to catch regularly? I could see that, if he weren't 31. But slow, thick guys in their 30s with a lot of catching wear on their legs don't immediately strike me as good upside plays.

Napoli makes no sense to me at all. Outside of one fluke season (powered by a BABIP 40 points above his career average), Napoli has never been a good enough hitter to be a real asset at 1B/DH.

Career 126 OPS+ plays fine at first especially compared to the Sox' other options. They don't need to acquire 'real assets,' they just need more talent on the team. And he may come cheapish coming off a year dragged by a BABIP 20 points below his career average.

I guess the case for Napoli would be that he'll improve as a hitter once he's not forced to catch regularly?

Yes, this is also what I was thinking. Let him concentrate on hitting.

And he may come cheapish coming off a year dragged by a BABIP 20 points below his career average.

If Napoli is cheap, I mean, sure, what the hell. I'm assuming that Napoli's going to get something like 3/32 to 4/40, and I don't think that's a good price.

Two expensive guys on the wrong side of 30 with a recent history of nagging injury problems! With the Red Sox medical staff! What could possibly go wrong?

Well, the idea would be that you make Josh Hamilton a left-fielder and throw away Napoli's shinguards, so you immediately cut down on their wear and tear. I can talk myself into Hamilton a lot more easily than I can talk myself into Napoli, but in both cases I start somewhere between 90/10 and 70/30 against.

If Napoli is cheap, I mean, sure, what the hell. I'm assuming that Napoli's going to get something like 3/32 to 4/40, and I don't think that's a good price.

My idea was contingent on him signing for less than that.

Hamilton is a better bet from a performance standpoint, but back issues never really seem to go away. And then you've got the whole Boston media scrutiny thing. I can't see how that's anything but a disaster waiting to happen for a guy with a history of substance abuse problems and other personal crap.

Napoli is one of my favorite players in baseball, but I'd let him be someone else's eight-figure commitment through his mid-30s. If his bat speed goes, even a little, there ain't much left.

Hamilton has not been as good as I thought he'd been in recent years. WAR 3.5 and 4.1 B-R, 4.1 and 4.8 by Fangraphs. He's got that huge 2009, but he also has a totally lost 2008. A guy who projects around 4 WAR getting $20M per season for at least five years? That's a big overpay with a lot of downside risk, and I can't see Hamilton signing for less than 5/100.

The Sox have assigned themselves a tough job. Talent is risky and expensive and the Sox need to acquire more talent using mostly money.

My crazy idea - trade for Cliff Lee. He's still a great pitcher, he's only signed for three more years, and he probably won't cost much talent. (This is, of course, if Amaro wants to deal, but he's at least very much worth looking into.)

I like the idea of Lee a lot. A three year commitment for a guy who should be very very good is a hell of an acquisition.

You'd rather pay Lee 4/$100m or 3/$88m than have Hamiltion for 5/$110 (hypothetically - just using the estimate in your post) ?

Heavens, yes. Barring catastrophe, this will be five straight seasons of 200+ IP for Lee. At an average ERA+ of 141.

Hamilton's great, but he's also pretty much a lock to miss about a month's worth of games over the course of a season. When "healthy".

Let me jump on the "acquire Lee" bandwagon. I would love for them to make that happen. I can't imagine it would take much to convince Philly to part with him either, considering that, if my math is correct, they have more than eleventy-seventy chillion dollars committed to about 4 guys next year.

I'd bet that Lee misses more time in the next 4 years than Hamilton.

I think Hamilton is going to require six years to sign and as Mattbert notes, health is not exactly part of the Josh Hamilton package. I think if the Sox acquired Hamilton he would quickly become my favorite player, I love watching him play, but I think his contract is going to be a problem fairly quickly.

I don't think I appreciated just how big Lee's deal is. I still like the idea of landing him ahead of trying to snag a Greinke or someone like that on a 6-7 year deal. My guess is that the Phils would try to unload Howard as part of a Lee deal based in part on the Sox' recent deal.

Didn't the Dodgers already try to get Lee's contract before taking on the Red Sox guys?

As I recall, Amaro said he was building around his three $100M pitchers, not dumping salaries.

Not sure I'd favor signing either one, but I'd favor Hamilton over Lee.

For his career Hamilton has averaged ~5.4 bWAR per 162. It's true that Hamilton can be expected to miss a month or so per season, so one can only expect a portion of that*. But for a team with some $, there's no reason that month or so of games needs to be filled by a replacement level player. Hamilton + a month of (say) Cody Ross could still give you (say) ~4.5 wins, and then you've got a Cody Ross around for when Hamilton is healthy and other guys are not. In $/year, I'm guessing this sort of arrangement could be had for <= Lee alone.

(One would of course be exposing Hamilton to the Red Sox medical staff, which is an additional risk. But I don't think there's any realistic way for the Red Sox to be competitive again without an improvement in the way the organization handles injuries. Talent is going to be hard enough to come by as it is without avoiding talented players with injury histories.)

*EDIT: and then regress that, etc. Just talking loosely here.

they have more than eleventy-seventy chillion dollars committed to about 4 guys next year.

Holy crap, you're right. The Red Sox have $44.4M in guaranteed contracts next year to 5 guys. They have 4 players with guaranteed contracts above $2.6M, although of course Ellsbury/Bailey/Salty etc will be making more than that. Total payroll including expected arb contracts looks to be $109.8M. With luxury tax at $178M, that's like $70M to play with. That's crazy. The Red Sox could afford to overpay Napoli (or Youkilis, if he'd be willing to come back) on a shortish deal and not even blink.

The 2014 FA class looks quite weak for position players (Ellsbury may be the class of the group, with Morse, Morneau, Morales, Reynolds), although there's some decent starting pitching (Johnson, Garza, Lincecum).

To tie this in with the thread theme, I don't really want the Red Sox to trade away a bunch of minor leaguers unless it's for someone exciting like Upton. Even Andrus might be exciting enough. But now that the Red Sox can't just buy young, cost-controlled talent in the draft or on the international market like they used to, I think prospects are probably more valuable now than ever. Most of the Red Sox high-ceiling minor league talent is at least a year or more year away from being dependable MLB starters (if they even get that far), so the Red Sox are going to need several impact guys from outside to bridge that gap.

The Sox certainly now have some money to spend, but this does not mean they have to spend it this off-season. Anything is possible, I suppose, but this does not look like a team that will be competing at an elite level in 2013. I think the team has to look at 2013 as an opportunity to truly figure out if some of their talent is capable of being quality contributors on the next elite-level team. For example:

C - Can Lavarnway be a guy who is a primary catcher on a very good team? Salty is going to start making some money now, and I don't think he's getting any better than what we are seeing right now. We have a couple of guys in the minors who may be major-league starters in a few years, so if I'm the Sox, I plan for a 2013 with Lavarnway as the primary catcher, a low-dollar veteran backup behind him with strong defensive skills/decent OBP skills, and let go of Salty.

2B - Pedroia
3B - You let WMB play a full season, and let's see if he can hack it.
SS - I'm not just saying this because he hit a HR last night, but why not let Iglesias go into 2013 as the likely starter? Right now, I suspect his trade value is marginal, and you can't really keep him hangin out in AAA for all of 2013. We know he can field, and we know he's a better hitter than he's shown in the last few weeks. How bad does his bat have to be for it to more than counteract the defense, long-term team control, and millions of dollars of savings for 2013?
OF - I hate to sounds like a broken record, but how much value is Ellsbury really going to have on the trade market this winter? Damn little. Play out the contract, be open to a trade at the deadline if he's raking in 2013, but the team is struggling, and take your draft picks in the off-season. Pretty good chance Jackie Bradley will be playing at Fenway in 2014...
In terms of the other OF spots, I think this is an area where the team can spend money. Put Kalish in one spot, let him be the primary bat in one corner slot, maybe suppliment with a bat who can hit lefties, and spend money on one corner OF.
DH - Give Ortiz another higher-than-market-will-pay one-year deal.
1B - I honestly have no idea what to do with this. You hate to spend big money on a 1B unless they are uber-elite, and there is nobody in the system waiting for a chance...

SP - Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Morales, Lackey, Tazawa, right? Is that where we start the off-season?
RP - Bailey, Melanson, Miller, Breslow...if Bard comes back, it would probably be as a reliever, yes? Given the injuries, the Melanson implosion, etc., I think the team did a very good job of keeping the bullpen together for most of the year.

I'm willing to be patient, as a Red Sox fan, as long as the team shows they have a plan. If they want to play Lavarnway, WMB, Iglesias, Kalish, Tazawa, Doubront, and other youngsters big time in 2013, so that we can assess what we have, and what we need, I'm cool with that. But playing Mike Aviles next year, or Cody Ross, or Aaron Cook...guys like this have nothing to do with being really good again.

Good stuff SBPT. I like the idea of Iglesias at short. They aren't going to contend so let's throw him in there.

Some awards for the minor leaguers today;

Player of the Year - Bogaerts
Pitcher of the Year - Brandon Workman
Defensive Player of the Year - Bradley
Base Runner of the Year - Cecchini
Latin Player of the Year - Margot
Latin Pitcher of the Year - Kelvin Heras
Lou Gorman Award (Dedication) - Daniel Nava

1B - I honestly have no idea what to do with this. You hate to spend big money on a 1B unless they are uber-elite, and there is nobody in the system waiting for a chance...

Oakland has some guy named Miles Head who hit for a 191 wRC+ in Hi A ball. Maybe they can find a guy like that to be the future at 1B?

Oakland has some guy named Miles Head who hit for a 191 wRC+ in Hi A ball. Maybe they can find a guy like that to be the future at 1B?

I know you're just ######## about the trade but I think apples to apples Travis Shaw looks every bit as good as Head. 166 wRC+ at Hi A and better K and BB rates. Both got promoted with Shaw having a bit more success at AA than Head though Head was there longer. They are pretty similar right down to body concerns.

I haven't seen Head but from what I saw of Shaw he was underwhelming from a pure scouting standpoint I thought. Obviously one game is not enough to get too worked up over.

C - Can Lavarnway be a guy who is a primary catcher on a very good team? Salty is going to start making some money now, and I don't think he's getting any better than what we are seeing right now. We have a couple of guys in the minors who may be major-league starters in a few years, so if I'm the Sox, I plan for a 2013 with Lavarnway as the primary catcher, a low-dollar veteran backup behind him with strong defensive skills/decent OBP skills, and let go of Salty.

Salty has one more year of arbitration - I would certainly keep him for 2013. At a bit over 1 WAR he is 'worth' 5 mill a year or so. I'd like to see him and Lavarnway as the catchers for next year. Get Lavarnway a set schedule of playing time and it might help Salty - he tends to do worse in the last third of the year.

I haven't seen Head but from what I saw of Shaw he was underwhelming from a pure scouting standpoint I thought. Obviously one game is not enough to get too worked up over.

Miles Head is supposed to be the epitome of the bad-body slugger. A future DH was what all the scouts said a year ago. Apparently he played 3B in the Oakland system, so maybe the Sox screwed up that evaluation too.

Or maybe he's a future part-time DH who's being overrated based on huge numbers in the California League. I have developed a strong preference for just ignoring California League numbers, or characterizing them in very broad terms on a scale of "not good", "good", and "great", and waiting to see what sluggers do once they're playing on our planet again.

My crazy idea - trade for Cliff Lee. He's still a great pitcher, he's only signed for three more years, and he probably won't cost much talent. (This is, of course, if Amaro wants to deal, but he's at least very much worth looking into.)

FWIW, the view of Joe Average Fan/talk radio in the Philly area is that Lee's lack of wins this year is... pretty much entirely his fault; something about lack of knowing how to win, blah, blah, blah. He's pitched better of late so the boo-birds of July aren't quite as vocal, but the "trade Lee so we have the money to pay Hamilton or Michael Bourne!!" contingent is still pretty vocal 'round here.

Which is a long way of saying: I think Amaro would entertain the option, but just know he'll likely either ask for Ellsbury or for premier pieces. Which is not to say the price wouldn't come down eventually, just that at the start he'll ask for an insane return on Lee, despite the fact anyone taking him on is doing him a bit of a favor, since there's essentially no money left in Philly to do very much aside from tinker around the edges of things.

I like the idea of bringing Lee in, but I don't for a minute think he won't start getting hit harder in the AL East; he's likely to slide up in ERA, etc. Still worth picking up if the cost is not much in talent and just taking on salary, but you're not getting his NL performance if you acquire him.

As I recall, Amaro said he was building around his three $100M pitchers, not dumping salaries.

Yeah, I don't see any way Lee' available; unless you gave them substantial MLB talent.

Phillie has to be all in while there's still a chance Halladay, Utley and Howard will be good.

Alex Speier at it again. Today he looks at guys who may or may not be added to the 40 man roster. The most interesting name on the list of guys he thinks won't be added is Alex Hassan based largely on his lack of power this year. I think he took a step back but without spending a lot of time with the 40 man roster I'd be surprised that the Sox don't have room for him when all is said and done.

Generally it's a pretty interesting piece.