Is this a precursor to an Ellsbury trade? I'm not sure Victorino's bat plays in RF.

If it isn't, then this is just an unspeakably terrible signing. Just ghastly.

Shane Victorino, last 3 seasons against RHP: .244/.311/.387

So let's say they sign Greinke to a long term contract. Is Greinke + Napoli + Victorino + loads of cash better than Gonzalez + Beckett + Crawford?

Right field? After signing Napoli to patrol first base? What's next, $40M to Stephen Drew to patrol third?

Very disappointing. And I hope he never steps foot in Left.

@3 - No.

$12 million a year to bet that Victorino has enough pop to play a corner outfield position when he doesn't get half his games in Philly's Mickie Mouse home park? Good luck with that.

That's why getting excited about clearing all that salary doesn't make much sense if you've still got the same clowns signing the deals.

Simple 5/4/3 projection for Shane Victorino: 260/330/425
Average AL RF: 265/325/430

His bat seems fine to me in RF, and you combine that with a center fielder's glove and baserunning, you should have a solidly above average player. $13M is a bargain based on those numbers.

The Winter Meetings continue to be a productive exercise for the Red Sox.

Don't confuse "activity" with "progress."

$12 million a year to bet that Victorino has enough pop to play a corner outfield position when he doesn't get half his games in Philly's Mickie Mouse home park?

Victorino career: 340/430
Victorino in CBP: 355/440

That looks like a pretty normal home/road split, nothing terrifying.

Don't confuse "activity" with "progress."

Right. Like that off-season when the Cubs traded for Juan Pierre and signed Jacque Jones to a three-year deal.

His bat seems fine to me in RF, and you combine that with a center fielder's glove and baserunning, you should have a solidly above average player. $13M is a bargain based on those numbers.

Apologist. Red Sox fans deserve better than a good defender and base runner with a decent bat who averaged 3.5 WAR the last 3 years!

He does provide some injury insurance / trade option with Ellsbury.

@6 What if you swap Hamilton in for Greinke?

Simple 5/4/3 projection for Shane Victorino: 260/330/425
Average AL RF: 265/325/430

Is that average starting right fielder or average right fielder? If its all right fielders including backups that doesn't make me feel a ton better.

Great, just great. The Sox sign a platoon centerfielder to a 3 year $39 million contract. So much for that newfound fiscal discipline.

Ick.

This isn't a terrible signing, but it's also not exactly an inspiring signing.

They either believe having a former CF patrolling RF in Fenway is a big boost to keeping runs down(and accept the average bat for the position) or they are planning on moving Ellsbury in a package for some SP..that's all I can think of regarding this signing. Still an 80 win team though.

All of Cleveland just breathed a sigh of relief. Dodged a bullet there. Decent complementary player. However, with his age and the size contract desired would have been a lousy fit for an Indians team just getting out from under a couple bad contracts.

Simple 5/4/3 projection for Shane Victorino: 260/330/425
Average AL RF: 265/325/430

His bat seems fine to me in RF, and you combine that with a center fielder's glove and baserunning, you should have a solidly above average player. $13M is a bargain based on those numbers.

So the optimistic view is that we just got a somewhat above average player for three years?

Didnt they lose 93 games last year?
Dont they have a 24 year old right fielder who can maybe be just as good next year?
Arent their two best prospects ticketed for the outfield?

I hate this signing.

Victorino has certainly been a good player, but the caveat would be that he's 32 and coming off an off-season. Of course, coming off an off-season is the right time to sign such a player, or else he'd get 17 or 19 million instead of this lousy 12 and change. But ages 32-33-34 might not be.

If the Yankees could squeeze 19 HRs plus whatever else of value that got from the corpse of Raul Ibanez, maybe the Red Sox can get as lucky with Victorino? Please?

I think you guys are nuts and this is a great signing. He's at least a 3 WAR projection right now and that's worth >3/39 even with decline due to age.

I think you guys are nuts and this is a great signing. He's at least a 3 WAR projection right now and that's worth >3/39 even with decline due to age.

Thats a good signing for some teams. Its a pointless signing for the Red Sox, and it might be a detriment to finding someone much better in 2014/15.

With Napoli and Victorino, the Red Sox will certainly clinch the 2011 pennant!

25 - is that to say that general managers are always fighting the last but one WAR?

The Torii Hunter deal looks a little better now. He's older but I'd rather have him for 2 than Victorino for 3.

As I said, they're trying to do the minimum to stop the fans rioting and generate cash flow for Henry. Bet there's no Anibal, even though year for year he could had for Napoli/Victorino money (yes, longer, but he's much younger).

Robothal (think it was him) just said on MLB Network that Victorino turned down 4/44 from the Indians to take this deal.

I really don't like this - I'm off to put the prices up in anger

Seems like the kind of contract I expect the Pirates or Orioles or somebody to be signing a guy like Victorino to.

Not the Orioles these days; they have Dan Duquette. Have to be favorites in the East next year!

I gotta be honest... I'm stunned by this--and not in a good way. He looked toastier than burnt toast this past year, and his routes have always been... well, not what you'd like to see (as far as I can tell). He loses a step, he no longer has the speed to make up for the bad judgment and that could spell disaster in RF at Fenway.

I thought he'd be lucky to get a 2/$25 deal; this is craziness (and also pretty pointless given what is supposed to be in the pipeline and would be ready in 2014/2015). I don't get this at all unless they're moving Ellsbury+++ for King Felix or some nuttiness like that.

I mean, when Phillies fans are laughing at you for signing one of their ex-players... you've done poorly in the FA market. I wish I had MCoA's optimism, but I think this is an albatross from Day 1, and if not then, certainly in 2014/2015.

This is a genius signing. After Upton gets $70M and Pagan gets $40M, and Bourn wants like $100M, you quickly sign up Victorino for $40M. Now the CF market is weak and the one player left is super expensive, and all of the other CF signings look really expensive. Then, some team that still needs a CFer has few options and limited cash, and Ellsbury looks like a reasonable contract now, so they send an awesome pitcher to Fenway in exchange for Ellsbury. Corner the market and deal from strength! Genius!

Back to reality. As with the Gomes signing, lots of itchy trigger fingers here. If this is to replace Ellsbury it's completely fine, and there's already rumors to that effect.

Even if it's not, Victorino is a very good player coming off a down year. If he had a normal year, he was looking at 4 years and $60M+ in this market. This isn't a case where the team just simply doesn't understand the value of a player. If Victorino is the old Victorino, it's a bargain. If last year represents the new norm, it's a bad signing. If it's a sign of skill erosion but not the new norm, it's blah. As with Napoli, if the regressed projection says you're paying $5-6M per win or less, and you have the upside of last year being a fluke (or Fenway fit/1B for Napoli), then great.

Not that he doesn't hate everything (or that I can read anything pas the first 3 sentences), but apparently Law hates this signing too.

Torii Hunter's probably kicking himself.

wrong place

The Red Sox are flailing, which should have been predicted from the Napoli-1B signing.

They have turned into the Mets. This is what the Mets did last year, acquiring a bunch of overpaid mediocrities rather than just put the money towards Jose Reyes.

This is turning into an old, mediocre team at best, with too much of their resources tied to second-tier players.

I gotta be honest... I'm stunned by this--and not in a good way. He looked toastier than burnt toast this past year, and his routes have always been... well, not what you'd like to see (as far as I can tell). He loses a step, he no longer has the speed to make up for the bad judgment and that could spell disaster in RF at Fenway.

I thought he'd be lucky to get a 2/$25 deal;

I honestly thought he might have retired when I saw him on tv doing analysis during the postseason.

Guys who steal 39 bases (career high) and get caught 7 times have not lost a step.

These would be good signings if you hadn't traded Adrian Gonzalez.

But you traded Adrian Gonzalez. And now you're going to build around this?

Okay.

They have turned into the Mets. This is what the Mets did last year, acquiring a bunch of overpaid mediocrities rather than just put the money towards Jose Reyes.

I don't like the signing much either, but what do you mean by this? The Mets didn't acquire anyone nearly as good as Victorino or Napoli last offseason, unless I am forgetting someone. I think they just put the money in their pocket (or their debtors') rather than sign Reyes.

Frank Francisco?

So Ellsbury to PHI then. What has to be coming back for this signing not to be monumentally dumb?

So Ellsbury to PHI then. What has to be coming back for this signing not to be monumentally dumb?

Why not double down and get Ryan Howard?

That's it - shoulda used the Rauch money to sign Reyes...

Guys who steal 39 bases (career high) and get caught 7 times have not lost a step.

He's a smart baserunner, not a fast one who steals bases with his blinding speed. More Dave Roberts than Jacoby Ellsbury.

It's the fielding I'm most concerned about. He's not Raul Ibanez awful, but I've watched a lot of Victorino over the years in CF and he's just not one of those CFs who glides to the rights spot and makes plays effortlessly. The reason he always looks like he's trying in CF is because he takes bad routes. Until now, he's made up for it with his speed, but his speed was never the greatest to begin with and in a cavernous RF at Fenway it could be a complete disaster. I also don't think he's that great at going back on balls (again, he's no Abreu but he's also not Griffey in his prime)... In short, the glove's overrated.

Will he get you 50 walks and a .325 OBP (and maybe goose the OBP up to .340 if he has a BABIP spike like he did in 2011)? Sure, and I suppose if he hits 8th or 9th to create a "2nd leadoff" kind of situation, that's OK... but Jezus Christo, did we really need to spend $13 million for that? Really? Does this mean they thought/think Cody Ross is getting 5/$50 from someone?

This all just has to mean they expect Ellsbury to either get traded or walk after 2013, at which point one of the kids will man an OF slot and Victorino slides over to play CF.

I still can't get over how awful this deal is. But what absolutely terrifies me is the FO thinking that lead to this deal will lead to other deals...

So Ellsbury to PHI then. What has to be coming back for this signing not to be monumentally dumb?

Why not double down and get Ryan Howard?

Hmm... Now if we can turn 1 year of Ellsbury into either:

1) what's left of Lee's contract (3 years/$75 million + $12.5 million buyout of 2016 or $27.5 million) + cash kicked in from Philly (maybe $5 million/year?), or

2) Halladay (2 years/$40 million), or

3) Howard (who's on basically a 4/$105 contract if you assume the 2017 option would be declined) if the Phillies send 50% of the cost of it with him; at $12.5 million a year he's a useful LHB and in a couple of years could perhaps be a useful DH after Ortiz leaves/retires

...I might feel better about this move if Ellsbury is on the move next... Not because I want to lose Ellsbury (I don't), but I'm almost resigned to the fact Ellsbury's gone after 2013, and since we aren't likely to compete in 2013, we might as well leverage a superfluous piece into something that might help for 2014/2015.

Victorino is worth 25% more per year than Pagan? I think this is an overpay. I like'd Victorino for the Mets, but with the caveat that he sits against some of the tough righties. Hard to play small ball in Fenway Park when the opposition is playing Home Run Derby. IMHO the Upton and Victorino contracts are excessive, while the Pagan contract and the Span trade were wise.