BBTF.org/m/red_sox : red sox - Why this Red Sox offseason will be different: Uncertain contender status will impact roster building - WEEI

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Anatomy of the Red Sox batting order - WEEI | Rob Bradford

(www.weei.com)

posted 5 hours ago by Jim Furtado to red sox, sabermetrics | 5 comment(s)

Interesting stuff.

John Farrell and Torey Lovullo looked down toward the Twins bullpen. They saw some stirring, as Minnesota lefty reliever Brian Duensing had grabbed a ball and tossed it a few times.

Then Duensing sat down. It was then the Red Sox manager and his bench coach knew they had put the right people in the right places.

“It’s a good feeling,” Lovullo said after the Red Sox’ 12-5 win over the Twins Saturday night, “when all the puzzle pieces fit perfectly.”

The puzzle Lovullo ...

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1. Darnell McDonald had a farm posted on October 30, 2012 at 07:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Better lock that DH position down

2. Walt Davis posted on October 30, 2012 at 08:11 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

From the second link:

Upton, 28, appeared to be a superstar-in-waiting when he hit .300 as a 22-year-old in 2007

Clearly somebody wasn't reading my posts at the time. :-) (Hey, I don't often get one right, gotta crow when I do)

3. Mike Webber posted on October 30, 2012 at 08:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

What kind of contract would you expect Torii Hunter, 37 next year, to get? He was very good last year.
Solid right fielder still, maybe 3 years 11 million per?

4. Rough Carrigan

posted on October 30, 2012 at 09:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Torii Hunter had a batting average on balls in play, this year, that was way out of line with his career norms.

5. Bhaakon posted on October 30, 2012 at 10:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

What kind of contract would you expect Torii Hunter, 37 next year, to get? He was very good last year.
Solid right fielder still, maybe 3 years 11 million per?

I think 1/$9M or 2/$13M.

6. Pat Rapper's Delight posted on October 30, 2012 at 10:46 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Uncertain contender status

I'm pretty certain of their contender status for 2013.

7. Dale Sams posted on October 30, 2012 at 10:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'm pretty certain of their contender status for 2013.

It's OVER!

Only the Red Sox could get their fanbase excited about their team getting worse (re: the Dodger 'trade')

8. Walt Davis posted on October 30, 2012 at 11:04 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Hunter: 2/$22 with option to 3/$40.

I can't see any good reason for him not to get the modern equivalent of the standard Abreu-like 2/$18 kind of contract. bWAR gives him very high defensive marks in RF.

Torii Hunter had a batting average on balls in play, this year, that was way out of line with his career norms.

Fair enough. He also had 11.6 WAR over the last 3 years, 5.5 in 2012. He's got to be a good bet for 5 WAR over the next 2 years. Unless they are trying to allocate the money elsewhere, I'd re-sign him if I were the Angels. Give him enough DH/bench time to keep him fresh and an OF mix of Hunter, Trout, Bourjos, Trumbo, Wells should work just fine.

Depending on price, he seems a quite nice fit in all sorts of places. Boston, Detroit, both Chicagos, Texas, Atlanta (if Prado moves to 3B), Philly, Pitt, Mets, Padres, maybe even back in Minn for old time's sake. Assuming he's not blocking anybody.

9. Dale Sams posted on October 31, 2012 at 11:26 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

how quickly they forget mike cameron

10. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 11:29 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Uncertain contender status

I'm pretty certain of their contender status for 2013.

You only need to win 85 games to be a contender(ish) in the new postseason set-up. I'd bet the Red Sox are in the race in some fashion in September.

11. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 11:31 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

how quickly they forget mike cameron

Huh?

12. karlmagnus posted on October 31, 2012 at 11:41 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Hunter is just like Cameron, in the steep part of his decline phase, and the value's largely fielding which after Cameron and Crawford I don't trust at all.

The FA I want badly is Anibal Sanchez, who has Sox pedigree and looks to me like he could suddenly blossom. And I'll bet 30/3 or 40/4 would get him, which would be a bargain.

13. Mike Webber posted on October 31, 2012 at 11:47 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

how quickly they forget mike cameron

sorry Torii, you are fated to have a hernia. 1 year/1 million.

14. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 12:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The FA I want badly is Anibal Sanchez, who has Sox pedigree and looks to me like he could suddenly blossom. And I'll bet 30/3 or 40/4 would get him, which would be a bargain.

I like Sanchez a lot, too, but I'm expecting more like 4/60. There is just so much money floating around the game. The good thing is that with so many good-not-great starting pitchers on the market, at least one of them should come at an unexpected bargain price. I hope it's Anibal. Or Jackson, I like Edwin Jackson a step more than Sanchez. Jackson very nearly has the stuff of a playoff ace - just a bit more precision on his secondary pitches is needed - and I'd like to see what the totally revamped Sox coaching and managerial staff could do with him.

15. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 12:01 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

As Mike Webber points out, Mike Cameron was entirely an injury loss. He had a serious abdominal issue in spring and he never recovered. There are no conclusions to be drawn specifically from the Mike Cameron experience.

Also, Cameron projected as an above average CF defender. Hunter projects as an above average RF defender. Cameron was a high-BB three true outcomes hitter, Hunter is a high-average hitter with a mediocre BB rate. As baseball players, they are not particularly comparable.

16. jmurph posted on October 31, 2012 at 12:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I hope it's Anibal. Or Jackson

I want both of these guys. Why not? They're swimming in available payroll space under the tax level. Lester/Buchholz/Jackson/Sanchez would be a very exciting front 4.

17. Nasty Nate posted on October 31, 2012 at 01:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I like Sanchez a lot, too, but I'm expecting more like 4/60. There is just so much money floating around the game. The good thing is that with so many good-not-great starting pitchers on the market, at least one of them should come at an unexpected bargain price. I hope it's Anibal. Or Jackson, I like Edwin Jackson a step more than Sanchez.

I think the Peavy deal and the possibility that Haren's option gets declined gives hope that Sanchez could cost less than 4/60.

18. Nasty Nate posted on October 31, 2012 at 01:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I want both of these guys. Why not?

Because they also need to get a 1B, a SS, and an OF.

19. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 01:22 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I want both of these guys. Why not?

Because they also need to get a 1B, a SS, and an OF.

Say Sanchez + Jackson costs $30M. The Red Sox would still have $30M to spend on players for those three remaining positions (leaving $10M for the bench) before they bumped into their payroll limit. And Jackson + Sanchez could easily cost less than $30M. The money isn't the problem.

20. Nasty Nate posted on October 31, 2012 at 01:23 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Only the Red Sox could get their fanbase excited about their team getting worse

This is stupid. The Bluejays got worse on paper swapping Wells-for-Francisco but that got their fanbase excited. If someone took Alfonso Soriano's entire contract this offseason, it would make the Cubs worse but still be a good move.

21. Nasty Nate posted on October 31, 2012 at 01:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Say Sanchez + Jackson costs $30M. The Red Sox would still have $30M to spend on players for those three remaining positions (leaving $10M for the bench) before they bumped into their payroll limit. And Jackson + Sanchez could easily cost less than $30M. The money isn't the problem.

I'd rather them use the money to acquire some star in the next 12 months and/or pay to keep Ellsbury than double-down on paying FA prices for sub-ace starting pitchers. They definitely need one, and shouldn't worry to much about getting a super bargain. They can go with Lester/Buccholz/Sanchez/Doubront/Lackey/Morales/Rubby/Webster/Stewart/Wakefield....

Which is not say I would complain if they signed both Sanchez and Jackson.

22. Dale Sams posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:04 PM # hit 1 | hit 0

This is stupid. The Bluejays got worse on paper swapping Wells-for-Francisco but that got their fanbase excited. If someone took Alfonso Soriano's entire contract this offseason, it would make the Cubs worse but still be a good move.

Starving men get excited for crumbs. Red Sox were less than a year removed from being like a .600 team.

My point is I was, and still am annoyed with the reaction of, "I don't care if we lose every game here on out...I don't have to watch Beckett, or AGon (!) underperform."...hilariously after two weeks of .200 ball, the bloom wore off the rose.

23. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:05 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'd rather them use the money to acquire some star in the next 12 months and/or pay to keep Ellsbury than double-down on paying FA prices for sub-ace starting pitchers

I still don't think these are mutually exclusive. A long-term deal for Ellsbury won't cost them more in 2013 (he's already baked in to my projected payroll numbers), and the Sox have very little salary guaranteed for 2014 and beyond. A star at $20M a year still gives them $10M to fill in whichever of SS/RF/1B they left open plus flexibility for the bench.

24. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:06 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Red Sox were less than a year removed from being like a .600 team.

Oh good god, do we have to do this again? You were saying, a week before the trade, that the Red Sox were a sub-500 team and wouldn't win anything in 2013. The Red Sox are in better shape to win in 2014 and beyond due to the trade.** If you were already giving up on 2013, why are you annoyed about a trade that made them worse in 2013?

**I know this can be disputed, but as far as I know Dale has never disputed it. He crowed all through 2011 about how he predicted Adrian Gonzalez had lost his power stroke (which remained lost in 2012). He hates Carl Crawford with the wrath of a thousand suns. The only way to defend the trade is to defend Crawford as a reasonably good ballplayer and to treat Gonzalez as the nailed-on superstar he was before 2012.

25. Nasty Nate posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:11 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Starving men get excited for crumbs.

At the time of the trade the Red Sox sucked! we were just as much looking for crumbs as the Blue Jays' fans when they traded Wells or the Cubs' fans this offseason.

26. Dale Sams posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

"We" arn't doing anything. I didn't say it was a bad trade/idea...I'm talking about something else entirely.

27. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'm just pointing out that the Sox haven't made the playoffs since they traded Ramon Ramirez!

28. Nasty Nate posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

"We" arn't doing anything. I didn't say it was a bad trade/idea...I'm talking about something else entirely.

You were talking about the fanbase being excited in #7 and in #22, so why are you using the scare quotes on We? I wasn't using We in a sentence like "We lost 90 games last year."

And if you like the trade, why shouldn't the fans be excited about the move, which was one of the only good moves the organization has made recently?

29. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:17 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I didn't say it was a bad trade/idea...I'm talking about something else entirely.

Your first post was about the Dodger trade, which you put in scare-quotes to express your oddly phrased disdain.

EDIT: Or is your point that you're annoyed at Red Sox fans who are happy that the Red Sox made a good trade? That's your point? If so, that's just entirely bizarre.

30. Dale Sams posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:21 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'm just pointing out that the Sox haven't made the playoffs since they traded Ramon Ramirez!

I think it's safe to assume that Sabean has someone refresh "Redsoxtraderumors.com" every 30 minutes for him.

31. AROM posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Starving men get excited for crumbs. Red Sox were less than a year removed from being like a .600 team.

Not sure what "like a .600 team" means, but they haven't been an actual .600 team since 2004.

32. Dale Sams posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:28 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Not sure what "like a .600 team" means, but they haven't been an actual .600 team since 2004.

sept. 3, 2011: .603. Less than a year from being 'like (which means i haven't looked up the exact figure) a .600 team.'

edit: and the scare quotes in #7 mean 'trade'=salary dump

33. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 31, 2012 at 02:32 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Which is a kind of trade.

I still don't understand what's got you so annoyed at Red Sox fans.

34. Walt Davis posted on November 01, 2012 at 01:58 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Hunter is just like Cameron, in the steep part of his decline phase, and the value's largely fielding which after Cameron and Crawford I don't trust at all.

Did you even check?

Hunter has 10.3 oWAR over the last 3 years. Granted, about half that time was in CF but about half those oWAR have come since the move to RF.

Steep in his decline phase? He's been above his career OPS+ for the last 4 years with 2012 the highest of the bunch. His oWAR from 2006:

3.3, 3.7, 3.5, 3.8, 3.8, 2.5, 4.0

What decline phase?

He'll be 37. The BABIP spike is worrying. He could go off the cliff at any time. That's why you don't offer him many years or tons of money. But Ortiz has only 9.3 oWAR over the last 3 years and he'll be 37 too and you guys are bending over backwards to give him $15 M a year.

35. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle posted on November 01, 2012 at 04:20 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Torii Hunter had a batting average on balls in play, this year, that was way out of line with his career norms.

Which doesn't seem to register with FOs very much, for some reason. I wonder how many of them pay real attention to BABIP?

36. Nasty Nate posted on November 01, 2012 at 10:30 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Who plays 1B next year? Jerry Sands? Mark Reynolds?

37. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 01, 2012 at 10:38 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Free agents / trade acquisition X.

The folks at SoSH think Justin Morneau will be available as a salary dump. This is probably just fanboyism, but I am at least curious about whether the Twins would move Chris Parmelee instead. Parmelee looks like the closest thing to a Brian Daubach (/David Ortiz?) in baseball right now.

38. Nasty Nate posted on November 01, 2012 at 10:58 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I don't think he would be a great fit for the Sox, but is LaRoche likely to go back to Washington?

Morneau is intriguing. If all it cost the Sox was the contract of 1/$14, it might be possible that they would be the only team willing to take that on and therefore wouldn't have to offer anything. Then again, the Twins might be happy just to keep him.

39. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 01, 2012 at 11:47 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

From what I've read, the Nationals want to re-sign LaRoche and are certain to make a qualifying offer as well.

One interesting issue for the Red Sox in the free agent comp system. Their first round pick is protected, but they have a pretty good second-round pick I doubt they want to lose. For the first time in what feels like forever, they won't have any sandwich picks. I'm guessing they're going to try to avoid signing any FAs that cost a pick. I figure they'd make an exception if their evaluators loved Josh Hamilton, but not for a LaRoche/Napoli/Jackson/Lohse type.

40. Nasty Nate posted on November 01, 2012 at 12:07 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

One interesting issue for the Red Sox in the free agent comp system. Their first round pick is protected, but they have a pretty good second-round pick I doubt they want to lose. For the first time in what feels like forever, they won't have any sandwich picks. I'm guessing they're going to try to avoid signing any FAs that cost a pick. I figure they'd make an exception if their evaluators loved Josh Hamilton, but not for a LaRoche/Napoli/Jackson/Lohse type.

It will be interesting how that all plays out. There is no consensus whether or not Napoli will be given the qualifying offer. I guess we will find out tomorrow.

Anibal Sanchez cannot be extended the QO. Between that fact and his strong postseason performance, the trade to Detroit really helped out his free agency.

41. Textbook Editor posted on November 01, 2012 at 12:10 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If Napoli is NOT given the Q.O., I would certainly make a run at him to play 1B/C a little next year, with the idea of gradually easing him into a full-time 1B mode for the remainder of whatever is left on his contract (admittedly, I'd be reluctant to offer him more than 3 years, and it's quite possible he'd sign somewhere for more years than that).

Just so I'm on the record as saying so: signing Hamilton would be a very big mistake. Let the Phillies make that mistake/spend that money.

42. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 01, 2012 at 12:15 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If Napoli is NOT given the Q.O., I would certainly make a run at him to play 1B/C a little next year, with the idea of gradually easing him into a full-time 1B mode for the remainder of whatever is left on his contract (admittedly, I'd be reluctant to offer him more than 3 years, and it's quite possible he'd sign somewhere for more years than that).

I'm on board for this, but I'd make him a full-time 1B from the get-go. A big chunk of Napoli's value comes from projecting him to improve as a hitter once he no longer has to catch.

43. Textbook Editor posted on November 01, 2012 at 12:17 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

A confession: Napoli is sort of my white whale... I've wanted him on the roster for years; this probably means he will fall off a cliff should we ever get him... So you all can just blame me.

44. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines posted on November 01, 2012 at 12:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I may be a racial stereotyper but Torii Hunter seems to be in a virtually identical situation to Mike Cameron when he signed with the Red Sox. So, just make sure he's healthy.

45. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 01, 2012 at 12:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I see what you did there.

46. rickey steals third person posted on November 01, 2012 at 02:18 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Re: Hunter: his value has actually been mostly with his bat. his past three years are pretty much a wash as far as defensive value (per bWAR): 1.0, 0.2, -1.1. And the last one he mostly played CF (2010).

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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Anatomy of the Red Sox batting order - WEEI | Rob Bradford

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