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Thursday, May 23, 2013

Demystifying Red Sox Ownership - What Do They Do? (WEEI)

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posted 3 days ago by Jose Can Still Seabiscuit to owners, red sox | 37 comment(s)

“I have [former Red Sox CEO] John Harrington’s old office. The day he turned over the reins, he was sitting at the desk and handed me his pen with a warm smile,” Henry wrote in an email.“I still have it. Red ink. I work more of my hours though in my home offices in Florida and in Brookline. But there is nothing like driving into Fenway Park to go to work. I am thankful every day that I get to do that. It’s one big reason why these rumors of a potential sale of the Red Sox are so ...

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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on August 24, 2012 at 07:29 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The numbers above are really carried by the Crawford contract, as I said. I'm following the insanity at the regularly updated MLBTR post, and there's a report there that the deal might just be Gonzalez and Beckett to LA, sans Crawford. This is much, much less appealing trade, especially given that the Dodgers have made a waiver claim on Beckett. Since the Sox already can just give away Beckett to the Dodgers, they should be able to expect a significant return for Gonzalez. This are the overpayment numbers for just Beckett and Gonzalez:

2013: $6M (all Beckett)
2014: $10M ($8M Beckett)
2015: $3M
2016: $5M
2017: $7M
2018: $10M

Outside of the benefits of dumping Beckett, that's a small $$/win profit weighted heavily to the not particularly near future. I'm not a fan of dumping Gonzalez. Gonzalez and Crawford have to be a package deal, or the Dodgers need to be giving us a bunch of prospects.

2. Nate posted on August 24, 2012 at 07:50 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

So, who do the Sox go after with all this cash?

3. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige posted on August 24, 2012 at 07:53 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Nick Swisher wants Jayson Werth money.

By the way, this whole thing is insane.

4. The Mighty Quintana posted on August 24, 2012 at 07:56 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

My vote is to spend all the money on the construction of Brazilian, Dutch, and Australian baseball academies. Think boldly!

5. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) posted on August 24, 2012 at 07:58 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yeah, letting A-Gon go without getting rid of Crawford makes it not worthwhile. But with Beckett/Crawford going with A-Gon, then it's mighty intriguing.

6. Mattbert posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:15 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lots of tweetery that the deal is going to be something along these lines:

BOS gives up Gonzalez, Beckett, Crawford, and Punto (plus some nontrivial cash considerations, presumably)
LAD gives up Loney and four prospects (Rubby de la Rosa, Ivan De Jesus, Jerry Sands, and Allen Webster)

That would definitely qualify as the long-awaited Smile and Magnum (Smegma?) trade.

7. PJ Martinez posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

"With numbers like that, the Red Sox would have to be pretty incompetent not to be able to re-distribute this money to new players at a benefit to the team."

What was the last bit of evidence that the current front office is not "pretty incompetent"?

Also, is the phrase "unveil his Magnum" as gross as it sounds?

8. Mattbert posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Outside of the benefits of dumping Beckett, that's a small $$/win profit weighted heavily to the not particularly near future. I'm not a fan of dumping Gonzalez. Gonzalez and Crawford have to be a package deal, or the Dodgers need to be giving us a bunch of prospects.

It sounds like the latter is what's going to happen. I don't like trading Gonzo either, but that's the price of getting shot of the Beckett and Crawford contracts.

9. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Also, is the phrase "unveil his Magnum" as gross as it sounds?

Oh, that does sound icky. It isn't, though.

Magnum. (It's an old ST bit, in reference to the impossible mega-trades that Theo Epstein would meticulously construct, but never quite complete every offseason and trade deadline. They seemed like classic lost works of art, never quite ready for the public. I called it Smile, Darren preferred Magnum.)

"With numbers like that, the Red Sox would have to be pretty incompetent not to be able to re-distribute this money to new players at a benefit to the team."

What was the last bit of evidence that the current front office is not "pretty incompetent"?

Well, they were going to need to be highly competent to produce a winning team in 2013-2014 anyway. This has made that job easier. Maybe they still screw it up, but if you're starting with the presumption of incompetence, then your baseline for 2013-2014 should be two more years out of the playoffs regardless.

10. Kurt posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Crawford’s contract is a naked singularity toward which all legal tender is inexorably sucked

Oh come on, it's much, *much* too early to be passing judgment on Crawford's contract. /crispix

11. PJ Martinez posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:45 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Re: #9, I definitely prefer "Smile," much as I would normally appreciate a "Zoolander" reference. (Man that movie's crazy.)

And I don't actually disagree with any of your thoughts here, except that I don't think it's as simple as laying out the monetary values and calculating some expected return on presumed future investment. Dumping Gonzalez to shed Crawford basically means starting over, which may very well be the way to go, but that's a lot of talent to just drop.

Also, I'm annoyed we'd still have Lackey. Sigh.

12. Mattbert posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:49 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Also, I'm annoyed we'd still have Lackey. Sigh.

Remember this is Ned Colletti we're dealing with. Don't give up hope yet.

13. Mattbert posted on August 24, 2012 at 08:50 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If this thing gets pulled off as rumored, "and Nick Punto" might become the next "and Mike Crudale", right?

14. Nate posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:05 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

In true Red Sox fashion, 2 of the 4 Dodger prospects, plus one of ours, plus another we get in the off-season by trading away XYZ, will be used to get Upton in the off-season.

Players that are free agents after 2013, aka, the likely trade crop:

David Wright (prolly resigned)
Brian McCann
Shin-Soo Choo
Corey Hart
Josh Johnson
Matt Garza
Tim Lincecum

And a bunch of guys that are 'meh', old, or some combination thereof.

15. cercopithecus aethiops posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:30 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

My vote is to spend all the money on the construction of Brazilian, Dutch, and Australian baseball academies.

My vote is to spend it all on Brazilian, Dutch, and Australian hookers.

16. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

So I laid down to take a nap around 4:00 and woke up about an hour ago to see this news. Holy ####### ####.

My first instinct is that it's worth dumping Gonzalez in order to get out from under these contracts, but who the hell knows until we see how much money the Sox have to send along with the contracts.

17. Mattbert posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Or they spend it all on Brazilian and Dutch soccer players for Liverpool.

18. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think Nate missed two of the more likely Red Sox FA targets for the offseason in post 14: Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher. Swisher in particular is a really good fit, either replacing Gonzalez at 1B or Crawford in LF. Or doing some split between those spots around other fill-ins.

19. Textbook Editor posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I... I'm speechless. Would this be the biggest trade for the Red Sox since they traded Ruth?

One side note in all of this: getting rid of these contracts ups--I think/hope--the possibility they re-sign/offer a whole lotta $ to Ellsbury, which is a move I generally am OK with.

Dare they play Ortiz at 1B next year?

20. Textbook Editor posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:43 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think Nate missed two of the more likely Red Sox FA targets for the offseason in post 14: Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher. Swisher in particular is a really good fit, either replacing Gonzalez at 1B or Crawford in LF. Or doing some split between those spots around other fill-ins.

I'm leery of both of those guys. Hamilton is a big risk (IMO) with anything more than a 3-4 year deal (which he won't do, presumably); Swisher is...well... Swisher. I'm not a fan.

21. Nate posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:48 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think Nate missed two of the more likely Red Sox FA targets for the offseason in post 14: Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher. Swisher in particular is a really good fit, either replacing Gonzalez at 1B or Crawford in LF. Or doing some split between those spots around other fill-ins.

I was mining the trade market, and noted free agents AFTER 2013, not before it.

22. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Ohhh okay. Sorry then. Misread your post.

Choo would be a really good fit on this team and in Fenway's RF.

23. Sonic Youk posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:53 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Well, whether this trade is good or bad, they have a ton of money and enough prospects to make some big deals. A few hours ago, this team was set in stone. Now, i have no idea which direction they're going in. They're going to be awful next year, but at least there might be something other than clubhouse drama to pay attention to.

24. Mattbert posted on August 24, 2012 at 09:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I love Swisher and would like to have him on my team, but I'd be leery of anything beyond about 3 years guaranteed. Greinke is another big name who will likely be on the market this winter, but Nate was listing potential 2013 FAs not potential 2012 FAs.

EDIT: I see Nate clarified his own post as I was drafting this one.

25. Textbook Editor posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:05 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Well, whether this trade is good or bad, they have a ton of money and enough prospects to make some big deals. A few hours ago, this team was set in stone. Now, i have no idea which direction they're going in. They're going to be awful next year, but at least there might be something other than clubhouse drama to pay attention to.

Yeah, things will get pretty wild from here on in if this goes down, that is for sure.

26. Mattbert posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:08 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think that's why I like this trade a lot. Without doing something huge like this, there was almost nothing they could do to improve the team besides hope really, really hard that their star players stop playing like dogshit. Now they have options.

27. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:19 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The truly crazy thing is that in December 2010 I was absolutely stoked that the Sox acquired both Gonzalez and Crawford, even if Crawford looked like a bit of an overpay. And here we are, not even 20 months later, and it's exciting to think that the Sox might be getting out from under $100M+ commitments to each of them. Even in the first half of last season, it was a joy watching Gonzalez hit, and I had a blast rooting for him in the HRD. And then he just stopped hitting home runs.

28. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:23 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Latest reports are that the Red Sox would only be sending ~$10M of the ~$270M owed to these guys. If that's true, then I unequivocally approve of the trade. I really think that the draconian penalties on revenue sharing money for staying over the luxury tax in the new CBA caught the Red Sox FO completely off guard, and this deal basically let's them move past that mistake.

29. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:31 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Without doing something huge like this, there was almost nothing they could do to improve the team besides hope really, really hard that their star players stop playing like dogshit.

Yup. If I thought the Red Sox projected to win 92-95 games next year, I'd feel very differently about this. When I eyeball the numbers, I get much more of an 85-88 figure, and without a lot of wiggle room to improve the club. 2013 was already going to be a bridge year - barring the star players all rebounding back to their 2010 form - so this actually means they can build that bridge to somewhere.

Hopefully its somewhere good.

30. booond posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:41 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is there a way to place John Lackey in Beckett's luggage?

31. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:43 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It seems hard to believe, but there really is a decent chance that Lackey comes back from TJS as a decent pitcher. It's by no means a given, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's better than Beckett next year, for example. I hate Lackey as much as anyone else does, but I don't think we need to jettison him before seeing if he's able to rebound with a healthy elbow.

32. Nate posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:44 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is there a way to place John Lackey in Beckett's luggage?

Deep fry him first and you won't even have to ask.

33. Infinite Joost (Voxter)

posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:44 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I've been thinking about the Gonzalez part of this trade, and I just don't think it bothers me that much. He's 30 and the contract lasts until he's 37. It's possible the he retains his ability to hit like Ortiz did, but the odds are hard against it. I don't like 9 figure contracts to 1Bmen as a rule, so maybe that's why I'm not feeling like I'm that sad about his departure.

34. Darren

posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:48 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I called it Smile, Darren preferred Magnum.)

This tells you all you need to know about our respective intellectual levels.

@33--
That's my point. Even if you like Gonzalez, would you be happy if the Red Sox had signed him for 6/130 coming off these past two years?

I wouldn't have punted on Beckett in isolation (and can see the side of the argument that Gonzalez would be worth his deal), but getting rid of Crawford too and possibly getting talent back makes this a good deal.

35. Infinite Joost (Voxter)

posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Also, this gives us the opportunity to be as self-obsessed & arrogant as Yankees fans when it comes to smaller market stars. I can't wait to see Andrew McCutchen in a Bosox uniform.

36. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I wouldn't have punted on Beckett in isolation (and can see the side of the argument that Gonzalez would be worth his deal), but getting rid of Crawford too and possibly getting talent back makes this a good deal.

This is pointless quibbling when we agree on all the important points, but what is the internet for anyway? Beckett projects as a league average pitcher at $17M per season. The Sox have good SP depth and mid-range SP have been getting very reasonable deals on the market recently. If the deal falls through - which you rightly point out is more than possible - I think at least the Sox can let Beckett go on a free.

37. Infinite Joost (Voxter)

posted on August 24, 2012 at 10:58 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

"I called it Smile, Darren preferred Magnum.)

This tells you all you need to know about our respective intellectual levels. "

But if I call it Poetica Comedia, I'm just pretentious. No fair.

38. Darren

posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:14 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

MC, Can you share your Marcels for Beckett? His peripherals are pretty good and ZIPS rest of season has him putting up a 3.75 ERA.

39. cercopithecus aethiops posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I can't wait to see Andrew McCutchen in a Bosox uniform.

You're probably going to have to wait until 2019.

40. Dale Sams posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:36 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I want to go on record now before the crowd mania spreads here like it has at OTM and say this is the stupidest thing I have ever seen. The Sox will not make the playoffs in 2013, or 2014 and probably for years and years to come.

We have traded Josh Reddick, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford, Jed Lowrie, Adrian Gonzalez for a couple of relievers and 2 fringe prospects. ####### INSANE

41. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

There's something amusing about the fact that they let Valentine field his post-game press conference and everything without any updates on this. He even said he expects Beckett to start tomorrow. What a maroon.

42. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:46 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

You guys have talked me down a bit but I'm a lot closer to Dale than anything else. I just don't see this as a good deal for the Sox. Yes, they get rid of Gonzalez, Beckett and Crawford but they still have to replace them and the fact is it is unlikely that they are going to be able to reliably do so at the same or less money. Maybe I'm unreasonably high on all three but I'll be stunned if the Sox can meaningfully improve on those three players for 2013 and beyond.

The fact remains that I have seen nothing from Cherington that gives me confidence that he's going to spend this money right.

And Dan, if you'd slept 10 more minutes maybe they would've fired Valentine.

43. Biff, highly-regarded young guy posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:48 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

He even said he expects Beckett to start tomorrow.

Gotta enhance his value.

44. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:49 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

MC, Can you share your Marcels for Beckett? His peripherals are pretty good and ZIPS rest of season has him putting up a 3.75 ERA.

I'll do that tomorrow when I'm back on my computer with the spreadsheets. 3.75 ERA looks really optimistic on first glance. Beckett has a 4.38 ERA and a 4.27 FIP over the last three seasons.

45. Darren

posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yes, they get rid of Gonzalez, Beckett and Crawford but they still have to replace them and the fact is it is unlikely that they are going to be able to reliably do so at the same or less money.

They have to replace their contributions for, what, about $60 mil/year? That seems quite doable.

46. Dale Sams posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

LF:? Kalish eff if I know. Nava?? Upton? Hamilton? I guess Hamilton wouldn’t be so bad.
CF: Ellsbury?
RF: Ross?
3B WMB
SS Aviles? Ciriaco? Andrus if Ells is traded for him?
2B Pedroia
1B wtf?? Kotchman? Pena? what a joke. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team brought back Pena and everyone crowed over what a great move it was.
C Lavarnaway?

This team has literally become every mouthbreather who called into WEEI with a stupid idea.

We traded Rizzo and those other guys for two fringe pitching prospects?? Let the best 3B in the league walk (Beltre) because we were so high on Youk and AGon...now we're just letting them all walk ...for ####### what??? Money? To spend on who? At a minimum that's 12 WAR walking out the door. Crawford could have come back some next year...Beckett showed me he can still hit his spots. AGon is a ####### god on a steal of a contract!? GD IM LIVID.

There is no upside to this. It's 2009 except the FA field is a billion times weaker. If I hadn't of sworn I would never dump Boston, I would do it in a heartbeat. You know your team has ###### up when you feel Schadenfreude for your own team.

47. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:56 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Red Sox have a big job to do to fill the roster. What Dale rightly points out is that the 2013 roster, if this trade happens, is full of holes.

The implication of his post, though, seems to be that the Red Sox either will not spend the ~$75M they have under the salary cap, or that they'll spend all $75M just on Josh Hamilton and Casey Kotchman. I predict(~!) the Red Sox will not give Josh Hamilton a $60M per season contract.

48. Dan posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I wouldn’t be surprised if the team brought back Pena and everyone crowed over what a great move it was.

Really? It wouldn't surprise you if everyone was excited to see the Sox sign a 1B who is presently posting a 91 OPS+ with mediocre defense at age 34?

49. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

At a minimum that's 12 WAR walking out the door.

I need to check the spreadsheets, but I'm pretty sure I've got Crawford/Gonzalez/Beckett at 8-9 WAR for next season, and less and less as time goes by.

50. The District Attorney posted on August 24, 2012 at 11:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

AGon is a ####### god on a steal of a contract!?

No.

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Thursday, May 23, 2013

Demystifying Red Sox Ownership - What Do They Do? (WEEI)

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