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Twitter / JimBowdenESPNxm: Mike Napoli holding out for ...
There is? Have a link?
Let’s go back to catcher. If I relax the standard, and only look for 1000 matching PA, I also get 3B, LF, and RF. Including 1B, then this is the comparison:
.323 at catcher
.342 at 1B, 3B, LF, RF
That 19 point difference is 3.3 standard deviations from the mean. So, we can safely say that it’s harder to hit as catcher than hit at any other position. Is it really a 19 point difference? Well, the only thing we can say is that we are almost positive it’s greater than 0. This is where Bayes would help. If we had catchers tell us that their body can’t really handle it as easily when behind the plate than when they play the field, then we would use a better prior. Heck, our prior could have been even 30 points, and seeing only 19 would understate the difference. The problem is that we have no way of quantifying a good prior.
I’m inclined to give at least a 10 point difference as the true difference, which is 6 runs of impact.
You can't play Jarrod Saltamacchia against LHP. He has a career batting line of 203/256/335 against left handed pitchers.
The problem is, Napoli has shown little ability to stay in the lineup while playing part-time C. I'd like to try him out as a full-time 1B and see if that improves his durability.
As for catchers: full-time catchers are .341 at C, and .318 elsewhere. Presumably they are hurt, but they want to keep their bat in the lineup. Only 990 PA, so 1.4 SD.
Among all the other catchers (less than 90% of their playing time at catcher): .321 at C and .350 (!) elsewhere. 6916 PA, so 4.8 SD!!
In this case, these are probably guys who tried their hand at catching, and they got moved from behind the plate. With shackles removed, their hitting exploded.
This is just a big wow as far as I’m concerned.
I'm not too hot on this potential signing. Four years? Do you really think he's going to be worth it the fourth year? Signing him to a 4yr/$44m contract is what happens when you have lots of money to spend, and a weak FA market.
It looks to me like the Sox are still looking to trade Salty. Napoli would be, primarily, a first baseman, catching once in a while. After 2014, Napoli could DH most of the time, if the right first baseman becomes available.
Yeesh, seems like a real bad fit for Safeco.
Is any hitter a good fit for Safeco?
I think both Carlos Delgado and Mike Sweeney were catchers in the minors and briefly in the majors, but quickly moved to 1B and started raking.
If Tango's analysis included Murphy, Biggio, Sweeney, Delgado then I call shenanigans for Napoli comparisons. If it's stud bats like Mauer and Bench being kept in the lineup in their early 20s I don't think that's what we want either. If it's mainly guys like Downing, Leyritz and maybe Inge, Kirkpatrick, Ellis, etc. then it might be a perfectly sensible comparison. If it includes late-career moves like Piazza (at 1B then DH in Oakland), that would be overly pessimistic.
The bottom line seems to be that it's not clear that you get any edge from moving a C off his position, in that it's not clear at all that he's going to hit better.
Fat, old and slow while getting booed at Fenway is no way to go through life, son. Next, please.
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