How about a full Travis Wood projection since he missed the Cubs posting?

Wow, how bad was Bruce in RF last year to go from EX to AV range in one year? At least the error rate is down from 119 to 70.

Not a very good year (8 HR's?) projected for Chapman.

Not a very good year (8 HR's?) projected for Chapman.

That's a little less than 1 homer every 9 innings. Seems about average.

Is it possible to project Chapman as a starter? Isn't he moving to the rotation full-time this year?

I'm amused that Juan Francisco is considered a better hitter than Scott Rolen

Is it possible to project Chapman as a starter? Isn't he moving to the rotation full-time this year?

Using the ZiPS Starter -> Reliever conversion tool.

9-9, 25 GS, 150 IP, 128 H, 72 R, 17 HR, 102 BB, 176 K, 4.32 ERA.

Daniel Dorn? Is that Roger's kid?

They were going to stretch Chapman out in the AFL and Puerto Rico over the winter but he developed "left shoulder inflammation" after a couple of innings and won't pitch again until spring training. They do still plan to have him start though.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111115&content_id=25981000&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

I missed the Sean Marshall trade over the holidays. It always felt like the Cubs jerked him around, in and out of the rotation, back and forth from the bullpen. I always wondered what he'd do given a full season in the rotation of 30+ starts.

That's a little less than 1 homer every 9 innings. Seems about average.

Is that avg for a guy who has a 11.5/9 K rate and a higher than avg GB/FO ratio?

Is that avg for a guy who has a 11.5/9 K rate and a higher than avg GB/FO ratio?

His park is an issue. HR park factors for GAB over the last three years:

2009: 1.176
2010: 1.136
2011: 1.314

3/2/1 Wt avg: 1.23

So figure he'd look better in a more neutral park.

Also Chapman's entire pro career (m & M) amounts to 171 IP ... everything is going to get regressed heavily. But 8 HR does seem high.

If he gets to his career projection, Votto's gonna be an interesting HoF debate. Looks light unless he adds a 2nd MVP.

I'm surprised ZiPS didn't go into an infinite loop of double-checking when it saw that Cairo projection. :-)

And a wicked good projection for Marshall -- starting to think the Cubs didn't get enough for him.

Using the ZiPS Starter -> Reliever conversion tool.

Wow, didn't know Dan made that. Very cool.

That's an ugly comp for Marshall.

I only remember him as the Mariners rule 5 pick a couple of years ago, but Kanekoa Texeira had quite the year.

In the majors, he threw 6 1/3 innings, gave up 13 hits, 2 walks, and 1 wild pitch, but because the hits were all singles that were spread out they only led to 2 runs and an ERA of 2.84. The Royals sent him down to the minors and the hits kept on coming, but he wasn't so lucky with the runs:

AAA with the Royals, he had 10 1/3 innings and gave up 7 runs on 12 hits and 7 walks.
In AA with the Yankees, he had 11 innings and gave up 18 runs on 24 hits.
AAA again, 4 1/3 innings and gave up 13 runs on 16 hits and 3 walks.

So from AA to the majors he gave up 65 hits in 32 innings, which seems like an impressively bad hit rate for a guy who's never really been that bad of a pitcher.

Seems at least the 2nd year in a row I've thought the Zips for Bruce was a little low. I'll have to go back and see last years entry, but I remember feeling he was easily going to surpass it.

And a wicked good projection for Marshall -- starting to think the Cubs didn't get enough for him.

Given the intro graphs from Dan, I seem to think the Reds might have got rid of Wood a little too early. I still think he has a decent chance at being an average NL starter. Someone like that would be a huge for the Reds in '11 and beyond. Marshall will be a stud in the pen, but I'm not too confident about the trade.

If Mesoraco and Cozart produce like that from the C and SS position I'll be perfectly happy.

Seems at least the 2nd year in a row I've thought the Zips for Bruce was a little low. I'll have to go back and see last years entry, but I remember feeling he was easily going to surpass it.


For Bruce (OPS+)

11 ZiPS - 123 Actual - 119
10 ZiPS - 102 Actual - 124
09 ZiPS - 115 Actual - 101
08 ZiPS - 101 Actual - 97

Check out the defense though:

C: Mesoraco - AV
Hanigan - VG

since they figure to split the playing time

1B: Joey Votto - AV

and he won a gold glove

2B: Brandon Phillips - VG

SS: Zack Cozart - VG

3B: Scott Rolen - VG

although I'm a little concerned by who gets the reps *when* he gets hurt

LF: Chris Heisey - AV

I'm convinced he's better than that in LF if he can play an "AV" CF

CF: Drew Stubbs - AV

he could be great

RF: Jay Bruce - AV

was just "EX" last year and will likely bounce back to above-average

I think Wood could be decent too. And the other two guys they got could be useful. But of relievers projected so far, Marshall has the 6th best ERA+. 3 of the 5 ahead of him (Kimbrel, Jansen, Romo) are young guys who aren't available and the 4th was Papelbon who signed for several million. I know Marshall hasn't been sprinkled with closer dust but if you're trading the best available reliever (I'm guessing), I might expect quite a haul (given the way relievers are valued around the league). I guess it is (likely) much better than what the A's got for Bailey.

Seems at least the 2nd year in a row I've thought the Zips for Bruce was a little low. I'll have to go back and see last years entry, but I remember feeling he was easily going to surpass it.


For Bruce (OPS+)

11 ZiPS - 123 Actual - 119
10 ZiPS - 102 Actual - 124
09 ZiPS - 115 Actual - 101
08 ZiPS - 101 Actual - 97

Thanks dan. I went back and reread the '10 and '11 projection threads, and my only contribution to either with regard to Bruce was last year:

I'll take the over for Bruce and 29 HR.

In addition I had already forgotten how much Bruce cooled of in the 2nd half. My mind has wonderful memories of May baseball I suppose.

I hope for '12 I'm finally right about being wrong about Bruce's production vs. projections. Let's hope one of these days he gets a better feel for controlling the zone.

Walt:

I would rather have a 24-25 year old lefty with 4+ years of control that has a chance to be an average starter than a stud reliever on a 1 year deal. That's especially true given the current state of the Cubs. For the Reds, it's a little trickier of a question. It's not like they dealt from a position of strength to get Marshall.

How many pitchers has ZiPS ever projected to give up 30 home runs? Arroyo's projected to allow 30 in 2012 in just 170 innings here. That's quite a HR rate.

I would rather have a 24-25 year old lefty with 4+ years of control that has a chance to be an average starter than a stud reliever on a 1 year deal.

I probably would too. But then I'd probably have rather had Marshall in the rotation the last couple of years (and especially last year's disaster) and I might well rather have the stud reliever signed to an extension, so we can't trust my opinion.

But my point was given how much teams value relievers -- which is a lot more than we tend to value them around here -- and if we were offering "the best reliever on the market" then I'm not sure there wasn't the chance to get more than Wood.

And, let's see if we can hijack a Reds ZiPS thread (doesn't happen often) -- given the Cubs should be running $130+ M payrolls year after year after year, "years of control" is not a particularly important concept for them. Never a bad thing of course but it shouldn't often be a key factor in deciding between an average and a good player. Unless the "next good Cubs team" ain't arriving until 2016, no reason Marshall couldn't have been part of the next good Cubs team. (And he still could if we sign him next offseason.)

That's an ugly comp for Marshall.

Well played!

Baseclogger:

Stubbs is already 27 years old. He is as good as he is ever going to be.

Defensively he is very good. But he's not taking a step into Garry Maddoxx territory or anything.

If the Reds can keep some starters healthy this team could well win 90 games.

Thanks a bunch for posting these - I really like them and they help as I prepare for my Strat-O-Matic league. Is there a full schedule for the updates?

3B: Scott Rolen - VG

although I'm a little concerned by who gets the reps *when* he gets hurt

Eh, Francisco won't be much worse than Encarnacion ever was...

Mike Leake has posted 96 and 101 OPS+ in his two major league seasons and seems to be improving rapidly, and he gets projected for a 91 in 2012? I'll bet a bb-ref sponsership he beats that

Post 29

Pitchers do have their ups and downs, but I suspect you are correct.

Leake looks to be solid

Leake's zips are a bit puzzling. Perhaps it had something to do with the brief stint in AAA.

You would think ZiPS would love guys who completely skip the minor leagues, no?

Francisco won't be much worse than Encarnacion ever was...

Have you ever seen Francisco play? Garrett Atkins had more range than Francisco does.

-- MWE

EDIT: and I don't understand how he gets an "AV" up there.