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I would guess Cano will produce something close to 20 WAR over the next three years if healthy.
More sour grapes from Blengino, who would like nothing better than to see Cano flame out.
Dave Cameron has pointed out that he asked Blengino to write that article a few weeks ago
Anyway, the more I hear of Blengino the less impressed I am.
If Franklin is their only successful position player in another uniform the deal is a disaster.
That's what everybody said about the Tigers and Pudge. (and Magglio)
No one is saying Franklin is their best prospect. I'm saying if he's worth 2-3 WAR for free the next 3-4 years, you are spending $24m a year to add 2-4 wins. The Ms are unlikely to get close to full value out of trading him, the market is inefficient because the number of buyers are limited, and they also know the Mariners can't get full value out of keeping him.
Cano is a top 5 player, those don't grow on trees.
For starters, 2-3 WAR is pretty darn good. That's a really solid player. That's Howie Kendrick or Neil Walker. You cannot project Franklin to provide that type of value.
And you can't hand wave away his value in the trade market. The M's may not be able to get full value back, for any number of reasons. But they would get something back, and you need to add that into your ledger. Franklin doesn't immediately turn into a zero.
Well ZiPS projected him to 35 WAR. There's the article of a couple weeks ago arguing the true price of WAR on the FA market is $7 M per ... which seemed sensible given he actually looked at contracts long-term. Add inflation over the next 10 years, don't know if the thing is backloaded or deferred ... if he actually projects to 35 WAR (which means a reasonable chance of 40-45 WAR) then 10/$240 is not out of line.
I can't believe he, or anybody really, projects that well over ages 31-40 but, based on ZiPS, this seems at best a small overpay.
Am I missing something here?
Even assuming Franklin is worth 2-3 WAR, a stretch, the M's can move him now for an equivalent player at a position of need and add that WAR to Cano's. It's an overpay for Cano, maybe a huge overpay, but it could work. Stranger things have happened.
He produced 2.3 WAR in only 102 games this year at age 22, and had a minor league .819 OPS at relatively young ages. I'd be surprised if he is projected to produce less than 2-3 WAR a year.
Edit: And lastly, Buffett became the worlds richest man with a firm belief in the necessity of a significant "margin of safety" in purchasing assets for BELOW their market value.
This Buffett analogy is totally useless, and I'm sure you can name even more reasons why it is so than I can
And lastly, Buffett became the worlds richest man with a firm belief in the necessity of a significant "margin of safety" in purchasing assets for BELOW their edit: ACTUAL value.
Even if Cano is being paid roughly market value (extremely unlikely with todays story they raised their bid to beat a mystery bidder that was... ta da themselves);, it seems that better value can be had elsewhere.
Value investing is very similar to being a baseball GM. You seek to invest your resources in a portfolio of assets aquired at a substantial discount to their actual value, as the market reprices it's opinion of those assets to market value or higher, you often sell them and acquire new undervalued assets.
This can be better rephrased as: it's smart to buy low and sell high. Thank you for your fresh and insightful take on the subject.
Tell me what the stock market equivalent of Robinson Cano is? An extremely high priced stock that you know will lose value but in the meantime is virtually certain to produce tons of money in the form of dividends?
Did this happen? I have no recollection of it, and neither Cot's, nor B-Ref have any record of a Shields extension with KC.
AFAIK, Shields is only signed through 2014.
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