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Man, I'd love if the Tigers sent KC Scherzer for Wil Myers, but that will never happen.
How about prospect swapping....Matt Harvey or Zach Wheeler for meyers???
Lol. Dickey will not net you Myers, much less Myers+. Most GMs do not value Dickey as a true "front line" ace type starter, despite his 2012 season which was, admittedly, top notch. Knuckleballers are just too volatile to predict year to year, and he has no established track record (and given his age, I suspect the Mets would be better off keeping RA at a decent price).
This is a joke, right? A 37 year old knuckleballer who's signed for one year for a 21 year old AAA prospect who's cost controlled for six seasons? And you want a bonus, besides?
I'm curious what this is based on.
Be generous, and figure he's worth $15 million on a one year contract.
the Mets could offer Jon Niese for Myers, which I actually think is too much too give up from the Mets' perspective
Oh, wait, you were serious?
If Met fans are good for nothing else, this thread has shown they are good for comic relief.
I thought this was supposed to be a thinking fan's site.
Brilliant as always, Vlad.
trading Myers for a starter is the Royals' idea
Or Vlad, would the Pirates give one of their young arms+ for Myers, or are they more concerned with finding arms (I assumed the latter).
Your not even in the ball park, son.
I thought maybe I had been asleep for a few years and missed Jonathan Niese's streak of years of above average performance. But no, he's still Jon "one good year" Niese with a career high 190 innings.
Plus, the Pirates are pretty set in the OF right now with McCutchen and Marte and Snider. If they were going to deal one of their big chips, I think it'd be for a bigger need, like a top shortstop or catcher.
I guess that leaves Niese or Dickey. Sorry, trolls!
I wouldn't trade Niese for Myers and I don't think I'm overvaluing Niese. I think people are going to start overvaluing top prospects based on how well Trout and Harper did, but Myers could just as easily be Delmon Young or Travis Snider.
Maybe they'll get Verlander.
Obviously defense counts, too, but the disappointing version of Myers could easily be equal to Niese so far.
Perhaps I am in the minority, but I think a Moose-Tacos (since they are willing to move him) for young SP (Milone probably not enough....maybe a Peacock or Gray? I am not going to pretend to fill out the details...)trade with Oakland seems like a good fit for both sides.
A lot of people are overrating Myers. He's a good prospect, but he put up those numbers in the PCL, doesn't play up the middle, and struck out a lot. He looks like the next Jason Kubel.
Well, his average FB is only 90-91 MPH. It wouldn't be shocking for him to get hit a little harder than average.
The only guys who deserve really high BABIPs are bad pitchers
I think a Jarrod Parker type pitcher is what it takes to get Myers.
If Parker won't get it done, the Royals aren't seriously interested in dealing Myers.
Myers isn't going to land Felix or Kershaw
Not by himself, but as the centerpiece of a multi-player deal? I think that's plausible.*
*Assuming that teams are willing to deal that type of pitcher to begin with, of course.
I agree that he's a good prospect. I just don't think he's elite. He seems like the kind of guy who will put up 120-130 OPS+ while providing ok defense in RF or LF. An above-average player, but not a superstar.
I'm not sure I would trade Parker for Myers. Parker is young, only has a year of service time, and has already shown he can be an above average ML starter.
The implication of the intent is that Myers would be available for a youngish or cost controlled top of the rotation starter. Disqualifying Dickey.
Your not even in the ball park, son.
Nobody has raised any points that make me think the argument I posed in #62 is invalid.
If the Mets can extend Dickey for, say, $30MM and two more years (bringing the total tab to three years/$35MM) I think they can get that deal done with KC for Wil Myers so long as they're willing to throw in an extra $5MM or so.
Jay Bruce is a perfect comp., but he's far from an elite player.
[Niese] probably has a floor as a 2.5 to 3 WAR pitcher
I think that your estimate of Niese's projected future value is excessively optimistic.
In particular, I don't see him as having much (if any) remaining upside potential to balance out the downside risk of assuming positive contributions from a pitcher in every year of a contract of that length.
Using the lower of the two WAR figures and billy's value of $5M per marginal win, that's a total surplus value of just under $38M to date, with one of his six original years of team control still remaining
I also don't know how long that figure has applied - you can't really use it retrospectively.
Um, how? I'm taking the average of his last three seasons to get a 2.33 WAR/season figure.
completely ignores any upside a pitcher who just finished his age 25 season might have
I don't see Niese as having any significant additional upside. What aspect of his game do believe that he could improve in order to account for this uptick in performance? He doesn't seem to have much physical projection left.
I think it's fair to use that figure here, since we're talking about a hypothetical future in which Myers develops into a Bruce-like player during a modern context.
That figure doesn't account for the chance of an injury at some point in the next six years. Also, the distribution of Niese's value across such a long time frame decreases the potential impact of his acquisition - three two-WAR seasons aren't worth as much as one six-WAR season.
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