Thursday, May 23, 2013
FanGraphs: Cameron: The 2013 Cubs: Better Than We Think
(www.fangraphs.com)
Light at the end of the ridiculously low-ceilinged tunnel.
Read More...The Cubs have actually played pretty good baseball when sequencing is not considered. By wOBA differential, they’ve been a well above average team. Their record is almost entirely a reflection of the power of the timing of various events.
In our Win Probability section, we track a stat called “Clutch”, which basically looks at the wins a team has gained or lost due to the leverage of the game when their positive or negative ...
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1. DarrenYes, because something like 'valuable' with a fluid definition that is calculated differently by everyone can be decided with absolute certainty. -Catch phrase warning!- I mean, obviously.
The "subject" doesn't lend itself to experts or expertise. It's not weighty enough.
And how can you not laugh at the idea that baseball players don't know anything about baseball, front office people don't know anything about baseball, people who write about baseball don't know anything about baseball, most lifelong fans don't know anything about baseball, but guys who calculate WAR are experts about baseball?
According to comment 25 in this thread, the players and front office people disagreed on the identity of the MVP. Appeal to authority works better when the authorities aren't arguing amongst themselves.
To me, the luck factor would be if a player put up insane numbers based on an unsustainable BABIP. He would be the deserving MVP, but I wouldn't pick him high in the fantasy draft next year.
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