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2014 Disabled List Information and So Much More – The Hardball Times

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AP sources: Umpires, MLB reach 5-year agreement

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Angels, Red Sox discontinue pension plans for non-uniformed personnel - LA Times

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## Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. depletion posted on November 20, 2012 at 08:37 AM #Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.Of course it's impossible to know if the grade is because of luck so obviously you try to determine why she got the grade: didn't do the homework, test was poorly worded, bad noise/odor in the test room, never really grapsed the material, etc. It's pretty mindless to write off results to "luck" without first seeing if they're "trend".

Back in my day, after those of us lucky enough to avoid sabre-tooth tigers made it to school, most of the tests were pretty easy if you read what you were supposed to read and moderately tough if you didn't.

because mother ####### donkeys always get way more luck.

Also one doesn't normally think of discrete variables in a classical test theory (or "true score theory") way. It doesn't matter much once you're talking outcomes of 162 games or 600 PA but O = T + E is more conformable with continuous variables. For a discrete variable, P(O) = T (not usually expressed as a "true" score but go with it) or in the case of the binomial, E(O) = NT where N is the number of trials, T the true p of success and O the number of successes. As N gets large, the binomial approximates a normal distribution for most baseball-y values of T.

Kahneman was quite excited by this as he saw this as a perfect example of regression to the mean, but realized that regression ot the mean is one of the main reasons why people think megative feedback is so effective. This of course is most true in cases where you only praise or reprimand serious outliers. Yhere will always be a distribution of talent of course.

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