BIS gets out the crystal ball.
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Because of the difference between them in range, however, Baseball Reference estimates that Parker in 1986 was 17 runs worse in the outfield than an average right fielder, whereas Evans was eight runs better. That’s 25 runs.
I don’t know how they calculate that, and, because defense is so hard to measure, I prefer to use more conservative measurements. The difference between an average team and a championship team, in a season, is only about 150 runs. Saying that the fielding difference between two right fielders is 25 runs is a little like saying that a 150-pound woman gave birth to a 25-pound baby. Ouch. I’m not saying it’s not possible; it’s just hard to believe. I have Evans as being only about eight runs better than Parker in the field, not because I don’t believe the 25-run difference is possible, but just because I just don’t think that we know for certain how large the difference was.
The Tigers were horrible defensively in 2013, losing 63 runs over the course of the season. The biggest reason they are going to be much better this year is addition by subtraction. Subtract Fielder’s 13 runs lost at first base by moving to Texas, and subtract Cabrera’s 18 runs lost at third base by moving over to his better defensive position, first base, and you get vast improvement. Now add in Ian Kinsler at second base, a return to form defensively from Torii Hunter, and a full season from Jose Igelsias at shortstop, and the Tigers go from one of the worst to one of the best defensive teams in baseball in one season.
can someone explain is this study about runs against AVERAGE or REPLACEMENT?
James sez the Tigers have gone from -63 to +26, an 89 run difference...that's almost nine whole games, people. (I'll take it.)
It's not "runs above" anything; it's simply a count. DRS is Defensive Runs Saved.
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