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Thanks for the vid. Apparently foul lines are just invisible from that angle.
A lot of TP's high rating of Gwynn is based on his really high number of fielding runs. As you probably know, most people here are quite skeptical of fielding runs. If the fielding runs listed for Gwynn are indeed accurate assesments of his defensive value, then I think most
people here would agree that Gwynn belongs in the Hall. Whether his defense is that valuable is a question, and one that I have no answer for. Gwynn is most certainly a very good fielder, but I'm not sure if he's *that* good.
As far as his offense goes, his peak value in terms of batting runs isn't particularly high for an outfielder - 163*. I would *guess* that 80% of the outfielders in the Hall of Fame have higher peak value. His value outside those 5 years isn't extraordinary either - 67 batting runs* + of course this year, probably the 2nd best of Gwynn's career).
*(actually batting runs + stolen base runs)
To argue that Gwynn has produced enough to be in the Hall if he retired today, I think you have to argue that he's had one of the 20 best outfield defensive careers ever. I, myself, am not prepared to believe that, though TB's numbers clearly imply that that's true.
In the end, when he retires, I suspect I will be convinced that he's Hall of Fame quality. I certainly will be if he repeats this past season a couple of times, though I doubt he'll do that, unless the 87/93 effect pops up again. (Whatever it is that ups offense in these
years - and I'm not going to try and guess what it is - seems to have an extraordinary effect on Gwynn).
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