Those are some mighty comps for Verlander.

Cabrera's comps aren't to shabby either.

This is going to be an exciting offseason for the AL Central.

Wouldn't be too bad of an off-season: Tigers sign Kelly Johnson to man 2nd base. Paul Maholm to fill in the back-end of the pitching staff. I don't know if the Tigers are willing to move Peralta to third base or not (his batting cratered when he moved there with the Indians), but there are more options at SS than 3B.

Miguel Cabrera is so good.

I didn't realize Raburn was on the wrong side of 30.

Betemit projects to 94?
his career is 105
and he's at 128 the last 2 years and 114 over the past 4.
Don't get me wrong, I think Betemit is completely capable of coughing up a 94 (or worse) but mathematically you'd think his median projection would be quite a bit higher

Al Alburquerque R 26 3.83 4 3 42 0 47.0 40 20 4 29 53 111


Who is this? Oh, did you mean Alberto José Alburquerque?

Are they moving Delmon Young to RF?

I would guess Delmon comes back and starts in LF. Boesch in RF. Raburn and Dirks to back them up. That might be OK, but it underlines the real need to upgrade offensively at 2B and 3B or SS. Peralta and Avila probably won't put as many runs on the board as they did this year, but that can be offset easily by improving at positions where Detroit got replacement-level production in 2011.

Pitching is a similar story, as Verlander can't be as otherworldly as he was this season. A full year of Fister will help, but I agree with Dan that we desperately need another starter or two to get back to the playoffs and have any shot at advancing in them. But the team gets weird blind spots with pitching- last year they preceded from the ironclad belief that Phil Coke was gonna be a fine #4 starter, dammit. We know how that went.

Jackson is an interesting idea, wonder how much of his great success as a Tiger had to do with the since-canned Rick Knapp.

The Tigers can have another great season in 2011, provided they fill in the obvious holes.

Jacob Turner could become the next Josh Fogg!

Steve Sharts

Boy, that's an unfortunate name.

WTH is Porcello so much worse than he was supposed to be?

WTH is Porcello so much worse than he was supposed to be?

Was he ever supposed to be that good? He's never seemed to strike out anyone at any level.

That projection for Ordonez is horrifying.

Also, I knew that people like to say that Cale Iorg can't hit, but I had never actually looked up his statistics before. And man, he really can't hit. That's still a heck of a projection, though - a .233 OBP!

I don't know if the Tigers are willing to move Peralta to third base or not (his batting cratered when he moved there with the Indians), but there are more options at SS than 3B.

How is Peralta at SS? Asdrubal pushed him off the position in Cleveland, but since that time Peralta's BB-Ref fielding numbers blow Cabrera's out of the water. I always thought of him as a bat-first SS, but his defensive numbers look quite good.

Was he ever supposed to be that good? He's never seemed to strike out anyone at any level.

Porcello was once the top pitching prospect in the game, or near to it. The lack of strikeouts in the minors was supposedly due to the Tigers' decision to make him work on his offspeed stuff by having him pitch to contact. The notion was that, once that period was finished, the strikeouts would come.

Instead, we have the stats of Tim Wakefield.

And with Dombrowski, you really never know what he will do. A few years ago he shipped off two top prospects in miller and maybin to get Cabrera. That was a gutsy move at the time. Who knows?

Hey, Scott Thorman still kind of hanging in there!

I always remember when the Braves decided to patch their bullpen by trading their starting 1B (coming of an age 26 season with 32 HR and a 130 OPS+) away because they were covered with Scott Thorman ready to step in. It, ah, didn't really work out too well. They ended up paying a king's ransom to acquire 157 games out of the middle of Mart Teixiera's career the next season.

"Peralta's BB-Ref fielding numbers blow Cabrera's out of the water. I always thought of him as a bat-first SS, but his defensive numbers look quite good."

Just from watching him, he seems pretty solid, won't make too many mistakes, seems good at turning the DP, a bit more range than you'd think (but not much).

Porcello got rushed, but also might have been overrated as a prospect because of how polished he was. I don't think he's noticeably better than he was 3 years ago.

Occasionally, like in one of his playoff starts, he'll surprise you and K a bunch of guys, but he just doesn't have enough of an out pitch to be very good, especially against lefties.

Also, I knew that people like to say that Cale Iorg can't hit, but I had never actually looked up his statistics before. And man, he really can't hit. That's still a heck of a projection, though - a .233 OBP!

If the Tigers signed Rance Mullinicks' son, Cale's stats would probably dramatically improve.

The Tigers can have another great season in 2011, provided they fill in the obvious holes.

How much do you charge for a ride in your time machine?

Is Bonderman planning a comeback? With another team perhaps?

Mark it down....Fister has a better year (then above) and is a Top 5 AL SP come years end.

Also, I knew that people like to say that Cale Iorg can't hit, but I had never actually looked up his statistics before. And man, he really can't hit. That's still a heck of a projection, though - a .233 OBP!

Duly noted, and nominated for the Jeff Mathis Futility Award.

Is Bonderman planning a comeback? With another team perhaps?

I hope the Tigers take a flyer on him, but I don't believe he pitched at all in 2011. Always liked him

Wouldn't be too bad of an off-season: Tigers sign Kelly Johnson to man 2nd base. Paul Maholm to fill in the back-end of the pitching staff. I don't know if the Tigers are willing to move Peralta to third base or not (his batting cratered when he moved there with the Indians), but there are more options at SS than 3B.

Perhaps the Tigers should see if Martin Prado is available and put him at 2B.

Porcello was once the top pitching prospect in the game, or near to it.

I think he was regarded as the best HS pitcher of his particular draft class, BA had him #21 overall twice...

The Ks have not come, but he doesn't walk guys and his HRs allowed are manageable

His BABIP has gone
.279
.308
.318

HIs K/BB has gone
1.71
2.21
2.26

HIS HR/9 has gone:
1.2
1.0
0.9

If you are going to go with DIPS theory you might say the following:
1: K/BB and HR/9 are more reflective of a pitcher's skill than BABIP -Porcello has been progressing, but his random BABIP fluctuation obscures that
2: Since he is a low K pitcher, BABIP fluctuations affect his ERA more than most pitchers.

If Porcello gave up a league average BABIP of .297 his opponent batting line would have been .271/.318/.414 rather than .292/.339/.435, and OPS+ against of 99 rather than 110

I don't see Cabrera's lifetime SLG. being as low a .518. He's at .555 and in his prime so even if he holds in that neighborhood for the next 5 yrs. he'd have to either play well past his prime or pull a Todd Helton.
He should end up in the .540 range.

Betemit projects to 94?
his career is 105
and he's at 128 the last 2 years and 114 over the past 4.
Don't get me wrong, I think Betemit is completely capable of coughing up a 94 (or worse) but mathematically you'd think his median projection would be quite a bit higher

Betemit had almost 300 PAs at AAA in 2009 with an OBP under .300, and wasn't very good in the minors in 2010 either--I'm sure that factors into his projection.

Perhaps the Tigers should see if Martin Prado is available and put him at 2B.


Tigers are due to win a trade with the Braves..

<Runs before the Tigers' faithful start pelting me with car spare parts >

I don't see Cabrera's lifetime SLG. being as low a .518. He's at .555 and in his prime so even if he holds in that neighborhood for the next 5 yrs. he'd have to either play well past his prime or pull a Todd Helton.
He should end up in the .540 range.

1: League slugging during Cabrera's career has been .424, last year in Comerica it was .410, I think ZiPS simply uses the last year's offensive context.

2: ZiPS sees him as going .485 over 5650 at bats to finish his career- that's equivalent to about .502 compared to Cabrera's career to date context (so .555 through 28, and .502 post 28). His bbref comps averaged .552 through 28, and .505 after (they also averaged 4977 at bats through age 28 and 3778 after)

So ZiPS drops him about 5 point sin slugging- but gives him 2 full extra decline years, the end result is quite reasonable.

Betemit projected at 104 last year, had a 117 - and now projects at 94. That is a little weird.

Joel Zumaya! MLB is a better place when he's throwing 100 mph, but "Guitar Hero" injuries are kind of cool, too.