I'm going to sleep tonight and get up for Aussies vs. Korea.

Hey, Cuba vs. China starts tonight for me! But still too late for me. :/

I'll donate 20 bucks to BBTF for every Taiwan win starting tomorrow, and and extra 50 if they get past the next round

Sadly i will not be staying up tonight to watch these games. But meaningfull baseball is a great thing.

I'm hitting the sack so I can be up for the Korea/Australia game.

So if Cuba beats China, and they are certainly heavy favorites, then the last two games in that bracket become meaningless for the tournament. Though the China vs. Brazil game matters for avoiding 2017 qualifiers.

Cuba draws first blood. I have a feeling this is going to get a lot more one sided.

I'm pretty sure China is still mostly just trying to look respectable at this point, though them beating Taiwan last time around (admittedly one of the lowest points of Taiwan's baseball ever) probably gave them a little hope.

I was trying to get to sleep, but whoever's pitching for China is fascinating to watch. His main pitch is a 65-70 mph curve that he can't really command. His fastball seems to hit 79 or so, and he doesn't have good control of it, either. I swear I've seen better pitchers in Southern Ontario's independent league, but here he is pitching in an international tournament.

Edit to add: the fascinating thing is Cuba only has 2 runs off him. He's throwing his curve at least 50% of the time and somehow just struck out Gourriel with it.

it would be amazing if he could throw a 70mph curve while only being able to throw his FB a few mph faster though.

but yes it is often surprising how guys who can hit 100mph fast balls sometimes have problem hitting 80mph once.

Cuba's blowing out China now.. would be interesting to see how they do against Japan.

According to local news here, last night Taiwan's closer Chen was hitting 94-95 quite a few times.

Dear South Korea

Please go F yourself

Signed everyone in Taiwan.

oh boy, Korea is going to massacre the Aussies aren't they...

The tiebreakers are very confusing. There is a real chance if three. 2-1 teams in Pool B with all three being 1-1 against each other. That (according g to Wikipedia) gets us to a tiebreaker where some sort of coefficient seems to get used. Is there any place where I can find that ranking. I'm pulling for the Honkballers and Taiwan, it feels exciting to me that a two time semifinalist would be knocked out in group play. I just can't figure out what their chances are.

The formulas for tiebreakers are here: http://web.worldbaseballclassic.com/wbc/2013/about/rules.jsp#pool_first

Speaking of tiebreakes, I was just looking over the qualifying rounds and trying to figure out how Spain advanced over Israel. It was a double elimination, but Israel lost only once. They won their first 2 games, one of which was over Spain, to advance to the final. Spain then won the losers bracket, and a 2-1 Spain then beat a 2-0 Israel and advanced. So, was it not a true double elimination? Does the winner of the final automatically advance or was there some sort of tiebreaker used, like total runs scored or something?

edit: OK, found it on Wiki:

"The qualifiers were organized as four independent modified double-elimination tournaments featuring four teams each. The modification was that the final game was winner-take-all, even if won by the team emerging from the loser's bracket. That is, the team emerging from the winner's bracket might be eliminated despite losing only one game (as, in fact, happened to Israel in Qualifier 1)."

The qualification was set up so the final game was winner take all. Up until that point it was double elimination.

Speaking of tiebreakes, I was just looking over the qualifying rounds and trying to figure out how Spain advanced over Israel. It was a double elimination, but Israel lost only once. They won their first 2 games, one of which was over Spain, to advance to the final. Spain then won the losers bracket, and a 2-1 Spain then beat a 2-0 Israel and advanced. So, was it not a true double elimination? Does the winner of the final automatically advance or was there some sort of tiebreaker used, like total runs scored or something?

edit: OK, found it on Wiki:

"The qualifiers were organized as four independent modified double-elimination tournaments featuring four teams each. The modification was that the final game was winner-take-all, even if won by the team emerging from the loser's bracket. That is, the team emerging from the winner's bracket might be eliminated despite losing only one game (as, in fact, happened to Israel in Qualifier 1)."

Yeah, it was a dumb format. The best way to do double elimination with 4 teams is how it usually gets done in video game competitions:

Game 1: A vs B
Game 2: C v D
Game 3: Winner 1 vs Winner 2 (winner advances)
Game 4: Loser 1 vs Loser 2 (loser out)
Game 5: Loser 3 vs Winner 4 (winner advances, loser out)

I don't think that's how they're doing it after the round robin either, which is unfortunate.

Yeah, it was a dumb format. The best way to do double elimination with 4 teams is how it usually gets done in video game competitions:

Game 1: A vs B
Game 2: C v D
Game 3: Winner 1 vs Winner 2 (winner advances)
Game 4: Loser 1 vs Loser 2 (loser out)
Game 5: Loser 3 vs Winner 4 (winner advances, loser out)

I don't think that's how they're doing it after the round robin either, which is unfortunate.

Well, that is how they did it, but your method eliminates only 2 and they needed to eliminate 3, so you're missing a step. Game 6 is winner 3 vs winner 5. In a true double elimination, if the winner of 6 has a loss, a game 7 is played. They skipped this step, and had winner 6 advance regardless. Thus, Israel lost only 1 game and was eliminated.

I know I said it on Twitter and I really should have figured it out in '09, but...wow, does Lee Dae-ho remind me of Adam Dunn (except batting right.) And his initials are DH, which is what he should be playing; yet like Dunn, teams insist on playing him at 1B for some stupid reason.

As far as the tiebreaker in Pool B goes, it's essentially Runs Scored-Runs Allowed. (They include the # of innings played, but that doesn't have much of an impact here.)

The current info:
Chinese Taipei: 12 RS, 4 RA
Korea: 6 RS, 5 RA
Netherlands: 8 RS, 8 RA
Australia: 1 RS, 10 RA

The possible 3-way ties are the top 3 at 2-1, or the bottom 3 at 1-2. In either case, it would require a significant blowout for Chinese Taipei to lose the tiebreaker, or for Australia to win it. Korea and the Netherlands are too close to call right now, but obviously the Dutch have the better matchup.

The actual numbers by the formula right now:
Chinese Taipei: 0.527
Korea: 0.039
Netherlands: 0
Australia: -0.532

I think the local news is reporting that Korea needs to beat us by 6 or more to advance. so theoretically the odds are pretty good for us (not to mention a potential Netherland meltdown against the Aussies), but we're nevreous as hell here.

though then you might see the rather dubious occurance of the losing team celebrating like hell tomorrow.... so... please beat Korea.

So, if the tiebreaker is close to run differential, The Netherlands is through with a 5-run victory. A 4-run victory, and a 4-run victory by Korea would come down to percentage points. A 3-run (or less) victory, and Taiwan and Korea could both advance with a small Korean win.

yeah, so it's going to be bah unless it's a TW win + Netherland win tomorrow , otherwise it's going going to be a tie breaker of some sort.

Well, I was foiled by the alarm clock not working correctly this morning, but it doesn't seem to be that I missed much.

it would be amazing if he could throw a 70mph curve while only being able to throw his FB a few mph faster though.

but yes it is often surprising how guys who can hit 100mph fast balls sometimes have problem hitting 80mph once.

Hitting is incredibly hard.


And given the discussion of non-double elimination double elimination, I remind everyone of the 1990 NCAA championship.

[24] It's run differential (or TBQ which is only slightly different) in games played against the other tied teams. So, the Netherlands at +3 against Taiwan/Korea advances if they beat Australia. If Netherlands beats Australia, then Korea would have to beat Taipei by four runs to advance, while Taipei would advance with a win or a loss by 3 runs or less.

If Australia beats the Netherlands, then Taipei clinches, Korea advances with a win, and a Korean loss would lead to a 3 team tiebreaker at 1-3.

As a Honkbal fan, I'm just going to root for Taipei to beat Korea. A real possibility, given that the Taiwanese will no doubt want to send the hometown fans happy.

that and we generally want to beat Korea no matter what.

they're starting Yang tomorrow, he can be electric when he's on, though his recent outings seem to suggest that he's not on at the moment, but who knows.