Do you think the Astros could have gotten a better return had they used him as a starter this year?

The haul:

BREAKING: @WhiteSox acquire RHP Brett Myers from @Astros for RHP Matt Heidenreich, LHP Blair Walters and a player to be named.

That doesn't sound like very much. Luhnow is trading for some pretty obscure people. I wonder what his plan is.

It's not like he had a choice to acquire top flight talent for these guys and elected for the lesser offers. Jettison the dead weight, accrue some depth, and remake the org. It needs that.

Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon are league average relief pitchers. Getting some depth arms and some upside arms for them seems like a solid haul.

Houston is picking up most of the tab, which seems odd given the return.
https://twitter.com/DanHayesCSN/status/226765083177537536

Houston is picking up most of the tab, which seems odd given the return.

Myers as a starter in the last four seasons put up two crap seasons, an averagish one, and a good one. This season as a reliever he has merely been solid, a 116 ERA+ isn't going to get anyone excited about him. The Astros were never going to get anything particularly good for him but paying most of his salary at least gets them three prospects of some kind of interest.

I like what Luhnow is doing so far. The situation in the short-term is essentially hopeless and there's not much to trade that would bring back a significant return but at least he's aggressively using what little he does have to bring talent into the organization. It's not great talent but the Astros are in serious need of anything they can get on the farm.

Thing I learned after looking at the Astros page and seeing they have a reliever named Fernando Rodriguez: There have been six major league players named F. Rodriguez (Felix, Fernando, Francisco, Francisco, Frankie, and Freddy). They're all pitchers and out of 1547 appearances all but 83 were in relief. Freddy made 82 of his 184 appearances as a starter (but he never had a season where he didn't spend at least part of it in the bullpen) and Felix had one start in his second season.

Frankly, the ChiSox are doing some amazing things while having a pretty bad farm system. Youkilis and now Myers for not much. Good job.

The Astros really had to trade Myers because if he continued as the Astros' closer, he would likely finish 45 games and earn a $13 million vested option for next year. Notice that the performance language is "games finished" as opposed to "saves;" as few games as the Astros win, the Astros would have faced little risk if it were "saves". Presumably the White Sox aleady have a closer and won't use Myers to finish games.

There is no word whether the Player to Be Name Later is a significant part of the trade, but if the Astros paid the larger part of Myers' remaining salary, I assume it is.

Walters & Heidenreich are solid C+ prospects. I'm a little disappointed Kenny gave up both guys to get Myers but if Houston's picking up a significant part of Myers' contract then I'm not too upset.

Brett Myers does not excite me (and his off-the-field actions piss me off, to say the least), but the Sox desperately need relievers. I'd must rather see Huston Street, K-Rod, or Broxton instead of Myers but the Sox also have to operate within the confines of their crappy farm system.

For some reason I can't get the edit feature to work. The 13 million that appears in my comment no.9 should read 10 million.

man i HATE this signing you out every 20 minutes - i just lost a comment

myers is no great loss. the astros are almost all of the rest of his remaining salary for 2 pitchers who aren't on the WS top 10 or even top 20 prospect list. 4 mill is a LOT of money for that.

trading away major leaguers just to get minor leaguers makes the fans happy all right. i'd like to see some guys who actually have some kind of chance to be major league players on a team that is now exclusively AAAA players (except for altuve)

the astros are almost all of the rest of his remaining salary for 2 pitchers who aren't on the WS top 10 or even top 20 prospect list. 4 mill is a LOT of money for that.

But if the Astros took less in return for Myers in exchange for not having to pay his salary you'd be complaining that Crane is trying to pocket as much money as he can at the expense of possibly making the team better.

Thing I learned after looking at the Astros page and seeing they have a reliever named Fernando Rodriguez: There have been six major league players named F. Rodriguez (Felix, Fernando, Francisco, Francisco, Frankie, and Freddy). They're all pitchers and out of 1547 appearances all but 83 were in relief. Freddy made 82 of his 184 appearances as a starter (but he never had a season where he didn't spend at least part of it in the bullpen) and Felix had one start in his second season.

I had to go look it up to verify that the one the Yankees had--or, rather, the one I remember them having most recently--was Felix. I do remember being disappointed in his performance, and he was lousy. Turns out he was cooked. And they gave up Kenny Lofton for him, who could've been a useful player. Now I'm annoyed about this all over again, and I've probably not thought about it for years. That post-2004 off-season was ten kinds of dreadful for the Yankees, they're only just lucky that didn't crush them.

But if the Astros took less in return for Myers in exchange for not having to pay his salary you'd be complaining that Crane is trying to pocket as much money as he can at the expense of possibly making the team better.

But bbc has a point. The Sox have probably the worst system in baseball ... and you're getting guys who aren't in their top 20 (assuming that's correct). $4 M is a lot for that even if that is a better outcome than becoming Crane's pocket change.

Now I know nothing about these particular guys, I'm just commenting in the abstract -- unless the PTBNL is somebody interesting, the Astros spent $4 M to get 3 rolls of the dice. Not that they could have gotten much, if any, more.

jim

that's right. and what is unreasonable about wanting SOMEthing for FOUR MILLION BUCKS besides 2 nobody guys in A ball?

can't wait for coco cordero to start blowing saves

Not that they could have gotten much, if any, more.

That's exactly it and that's the problem Houston is in. When Brett Myers is one of the best trade chips you have there's no reason to expect much in return. Sure, it sucks for Houston fans, but it's not like this should be any kind of surprise. It's a well-known fact that Luhnow took over a complete wasteland of a franchise with a garbage farm system, a garbage major league roster, and not much of anyone that could bring significant prospects in return. The players the Astros got today certainly aren't much in return for several million dollars and a veteran but that's to be expected when the veterans mostly suck and nobody wants to give up anything worthwhile plus have to pay them. Short of gambling on a bunch of big free-agent signings (which often doesn't produce the hoped-for results anyway) there's absolutely no way for the Astros to be relevant in the next couple seasons.

I don't know what kind of owner Crane will actually be or what the future payrolls will be like (and I reject the idea that general statements at a press conference right at the time of purchase should be interpreted to mean anything one way or another) but I think it's to his credit that at least for now he's letting Luhnow ship money out to maximize the little return he can get for the players on the roster.

jim

next couple of seasons? please.
there is no way for the astros to be relevant in the next 10 years. at least. not that i care because this is my last year.

and there is no way to have a big free agent signing because free agents don't want to go to the astros any more than they do oakland. carlos lee was and will be the last one.

we're in the 6th inning, losing 10-1 and have walked 9 already and i would like to see this team do SOMEthing besides acquire nobody A ball guys and talking about "infusing new blood"

on the other hand, maybe we can avoid winning 8 more so as we can set the record and go out with a bang.

jim crane has made it plain more than once that he is not going to spend any money on this team. he isn't kidding and won't nobody care because there aren't any fans left. nolan ryan won. he's like one of those serial killers that gets off going back and screwing the body of the long since rotting corpse he killed

Jeff Luhnow is almost certainly among the smartest people in his peer group. He is very aware of advanced analytical techniques. If I happened to be an Astros fan, I would give him a lot of latitude to reshape the team.

i agree that hou should've gotten a bit more, given the $ they're picking up.
i also agree that luhnow should be given quite a bit of latitude - he's done well so far, i think. that's not going to make people feel better when it's 2014 and the team's on its way to another 100 loss season, but the situation was qf dire.

he's like one of those serial killers that gets off going back and screwing the body of the long since rotting corpse he killed

Hey, I'm pretty sure Nolan Ryan isn't a Yankee fan.

As dire as things are now for Houston, they are a sleeping big market giant when they finally right the ship. The owner being an enormous assh#le is a big wild card, admittedly. They SHOULD be a sleeping big-market giant...

i agree that hou should've gotten a bit more, given the $ they're picking up.

Keep in mind that the Astros are paying less than they avoid, if Myers had stayed in Houston and earned his $10 million option for next year (which he was on pace to do).

Also, Luhnow may rate some of the acquired players higher than their ranking on internet scouting lists. For several of the players in recent trades, Luhnow said he had followed the players since they were amateurs and had wanted to acquire them when he was in St. Louis. I would give him the benefit of the doubt in those instances.

I was coming here to say what #22 said. While $4 million is a lot, it's less than that $4 million plus $10 next year for the vesting option. However, bbc has valid points as well. But, they do save money with this trade - even if that is little consolation.

I wish Reagins could have done this last year with Abreu. But with his track record, he'd have traded him for the final years of Alexis Rios to reunite Wells with his old buddy.

Teams normally value prospects that they acquire more than does the CW - that's why those were the guys dealt.

As said earlier, key here is probably Myers vesting option. HOU had to get out from under that thing.

1 - have asked around about the 2 WS guys and can't find anyone who thinks they are anything but minor league filler. keith law is also unimpressed. i know they HAD to dump myers. the astros FO were vocal from the end of last year that wandy, myers, lyon and carlos lee WERE going to be gone by the trade deadline

2 - i am not understanding the reasoning behind all the "jeff luhnow is certainly among the smartest guys in his peer group" stuff. if peer group means GM. i am extremely skeptical about the "trust the process" stuff because these days, you can't dump your FA for picks, you can't pick up FA for picks and you can't even get higher priced picks. there will be very VERY few compensation picks. why on earth should i have all this faith in jeff luhnow?

3 - shooty, nolan ryan isn't interested in yankees. he is into revenge and into destroying the team that twice rejected him. he got his wish

as for the sleeping market giant thing, i'll say this - the astros lost the austin and san antonio market to the rangers already. nolan ryan saw to that. because the astros will not be on foxsports next year, all the time warner subscribers will not see astros. the astros never had much presence in the smaller texas cities because they weren't marketed. they had a little fan share in lousiana when the AAA team was in nawlins, but that's gone. oklahoma belongs to the cards as the rangers found out. i would say that the astros should at least TRY to move the AAA team to san antonio (marlins have the AA franchise there and aren't about to trade it for oklahoma) but unfortunately, they have time warner, so no astros game on TV.

and, having lived here since i was born, i'll tell you that through all the winning seasons from 97 on, there wasn't really much interest in the astros UNTIL the winter of 03 when the clemens drama started. 04 and 05 were absolutely INSANE. and when roger lost interest, so did the fans. and so did the owner.

it isn't quite like the old wayne huizenga marlins stadium - you'll get the usual season ticket holdwers who are corporations, you'll get the usual fireworks/weekend crowd, yankees and redsox fans will pack the place for 6 games a year. rangers fans will pack the place like they do now. no one is going to make any effort to see our great rivals the mariners, athletics and angels. they won't make our "natural" NL rivals the cubs, because of the white sox, but the rockies or whoever aren't gonna pack the stadium.

you won't get ASTROS fans back, not for years and years. free agents don't want to come here - i mean the carlos beltran kind of STAR!!! free agent and carlos lee did only because of his ranch and the rangers didn't want to keep him. and most of us don't want to watch DH ball, and us diehards are not coming back no matter WHAT the team does.

sleeping big market giant is not gettin it up for some crappy AL team. and, by the way, the rangers are not and never will be a rival. no one gives a damm about dallas and rivalry with dallas except for nolan ryan. and he's already won permanently. permanently being the rest of my lifetime.

oh yeah

i know they had to get out from under the myers option and i know they have to get out of wandy's contract. fact is, they COULD have gotten rid of wandy's contract last year when they had more than 1 team willing to pick up the ENTIRE thing - of course, nothing back

it's the getting of nothing worth much of anything back part that bothers me

ed wade's ONLY asset was getting relievers who turned out to be good offn the waiver wire. so far, the luhnow team has sucked at this

2 - i am not understanding the reasoning behind all the "jeff luhnow is certainly among the smartest guys in his peer group" stuff. if peer group means GM. i am extremely skeptical about the "trust the process" stuff because these days, you can't dump your FA for picks, you can't pick up FA for picks and you can't even get higher priced picks. there will be very VERY few compensation picks. why on earth should i have all this faith in jeff luhnow?

Well, in terms of evidence he is smart, he's got two undergraduate degrees from Penn and an MBA from Kellogg, and he was hired out of school by McKinsey, which specifically prizes intellectual and analytical ability. McKinsey does hire some dumb people by mistake, but they wash out quickly. Luhnow worked there for 5 years. So the "smarts" pedigree is there.

From a baseball results perspective, he had a central role in one of the two or three most admirable front offices over the last 5-10 years. He had a major hand in building the front office talent there as well as an extremely productive farm system. It *might* be worth giving him more than half a season given how abysmal the Astros have been in recent years. Or you could throw the bum out, but I doubt you'll find someone with better odds of success.

Wasn't one of the things about the minor league system Luhnow helped oversee in St. Louis was that it was surprisingly productive? It sort of crept up on the experts. Or I am not remembering that correctly?

I don't know anything about Luhnow's probability of success. But I do know that, here, he made a trade that any GM could make -- trade a vet, pick up all the salary, get low-ranked prospects back. In the Carlos Lee trade, he made a trade that any GM could make. And at 34-61, I'm pretty sure any GM would recognize that it's time to trade the pending FAs (and the pending vesting options).

Which is fine -- even a genius GM can't pull off miracle trades every time. But these moves are nothing to get excited about or even like from a baseball perspective, they're just the unmelted American cheese on a quarter pounder.

jobu

the doug glanville penn or the child molesting penn?
i don't know about his IQ and analytical ability. you don't need all those fancy degrees for that - see gerry hunsicker. i don't know what was mozeliak and what was luhnow and what was the scouting director and or head of player development.

st louis wasn't like this mess of a club when luhnow was hired.

i'm not asking for him to be tossed or replaced. seriously, what for? all i am saying is that i haven't seen anything that he's done that impresses me as a smart or good move. he hasn't acquired any minor leaguer who is on any top list. in other words, ed eff wade coulda made trades like this - although he would have had a tougher time, seeing as how philly is clean out of minor leaguers to trade.

i will note that none of the player development people have been replaced.

i am not calling for the manager to be fired because it is only in the movies that you win with a bunch of minor leaguers/AAAA guys. millsie-poo doesn't know when to pull a guy who has lost his stuff, but hey, i'm used to that.

the doug glanville penn or the child molesting penn?

Penn State was where the child molester was. Penn is where Luhnow went, and where they sell a whole lot more "Not Penn State" t-shirts now than before.

BBC, I was shocked that Lee was actually tradeable, given that he had already vetoed the trade to LA and the Astros were confined to trading him to teams that were the most unlikely to want him. You aren't going to get Top 100 prospects for Lee, even if you pay his salary, but the fact that Luhnow got a couple of prospects back that he likes is not bad.

Trading Melancon to the Red Sox for Lowrie and Weiland was excellent, in my opinion.

The prospects received in the Jays' trade were interesting, with at least one of them likely to make the Astros top ten prospect list (and very close if not on the Top 10) and Luhnow projecting that one of the pitchers will be on the major league team by the end of next year.

Trading Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero for prospects who have a good chance of becoming major leaguers was a smart trade. Bourgeois is back in AAA and Quintero was waived by the Royals.

This is a painful process because Luhnow doesn't have tremendous parts to trade and the improvement in the farm system has to be in bits and pieces. Walt may be correct that other GMs would make the decisions. But I'm satisfied with what Luhnow has done so far.

With the concern about whether Crane would spend money on improving the team, it's kind of encouraging that he didn't tell Luhnow to go for straight salary dumps for Lee and Myers. He was willing to pay for getting something in return, even if it wasn't franchise-altering. It's also encouraging that Crane authorized draft spending that exceeded the Astros' slot pool.

+1

Trading Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero for prospects who have a good chance of becoming major leaguers was a smart trade. Bourgeois is back in AAA and Quintero was waived by the Royals.

You can't call a 14th round pick who is still in short-season ball a guy with a "good chance to become a major leaguer."
As for Chapman, he is a AA lefty with stuff, so yeah he has a chance to make the bigs, but he still can't throw strikes and even if he could throw strikes his ceiling is a LOOGY.

Don't get me wrong, it was still a good trade, but not because Chapman and Toney are guys "who have a good chance of becoming major leaguers."

he hasn't acquired any minor leaguer who is on any top list.

Not in trade, but he pulled a very nice get with Lance McCullers in the draft.

tricky

the melancon trade was a huge risk and depended on lowrie staying healthy which, of course, he didn't. and on the bullpen not needing anyone who could like, you know, get anyone out. i hear tell that the idea was to flip lowrie for something more valuable, before he broke down, and THAT was a good idea, but the gamble didn't pay off, unfortunately. so we'll have to see. he's gonna be getting expensive quickly, so not sure how long he's gonna last. weiland - have to see him pitch more than a couple games before making any judgement. so at this point, i'm gonna call it a draw

quintero/bourgeois were traded for a AA LOOGY who walks tons of guys at AA and somebody at rookie league - major leaguers my butt. bourgeois never had a chance on a team that already HAD 5 major league OF. quintero had a quintero year and it's better than snyder, who is not exactly a good defensive catcher any more and he can't hit any more. so not that i'm this huge quintero fan, but i sure don't see any WIN there. and neither one was under contract and didn't HAVE to be re-signed. and it's not like they saved any money neither. i'd FAR rather have bourgeois than mary jane schafer, who sucks - you see him with that fly ball in the 7th? i wanted to REALLY kick him, and it's not exactly the first time. all the braves fans were right.

what do you mean exceeded the slot pool? i didn't read anywhere that the astros went over their total budget or had to pay tax. i know he went over "slot" with mccullers, rio ruiz and preston tucker, but the money came from what correa DIDN'T get.

which reminds me - the one thing about luhnow/crane i DO like is that they aren't absolutely refusing to do any business with scott boras. the only boras client drayton and gang ever signed was pudge rodriguez and he was barely over minimum. see, i'm not all negative.

i'd just like to see them do some GOOD deal before the astros cease to exist at the end of the year, not just get filler.

i looked over the toronto pitchers - toronto is so desperate for ML pitchers that they wanted j HAPP - who is a 5th starter. if they had any guy who was any sort of legitimate major leaguer, you think they would have gotten rid of him? especially seeing as how 3 of their guys won't be back this year at ALL? can you find ANY prospect specialist who thinks that any one of those 3 guys will be a legitimate major leaguer in 5 weeks?

forgot

carlos lee really REALLY didn't want to be traded and he gambled that crane wouldn't pick up the whole tab - guess he missed his guess. miami was a good one to block because at the end of last year, who would have guesssed that gaby sanchez would turn into less than mendoza?

if you get NO salary relief, then you SHOULD get something decent in return. sure doesn't look to me like they did

lowrie put up a 115 ops+ as a ss in 80 games (1.9 bb-ref WAR). melancon has an era of 6 in 19 games.
draw?

they exceeded the pool by $157,500, per BA

you want bourgeois, go get him. he's hit .209 w/o other positive attributes in omaha.

in 5 weeks? nope - these are all long haul guys. luhnow's plan will make things worse before they get better - it's been suggested that he wants to stockpile high draft picks.

i'm not seeing houston get any big off the field trade wins, but look at their deals as a bunch of tiny victories. that's not a bad thing.

Wy are people engaging BBC on the Astros? She decided long ago to interpret everything they do in the worst way possible. Let her yelp into her echo chamber.

melancon gave up like a zillion runs in 1.2 innings first thing in the year. he had an ERA of 50 or something. after he got back from the minors, where he was kept for a long time to punish him good, he has had something like 15 appearances and has given up 2 runs, no losses, no blown saves. we'll see how he does from here. i don't have a problem with lowrie, but since the idea was to flip him at the deadline if he was any good and wasn't hurt, it kind of didn't quite work out the way he planned. of course, i didn't expect lowrie to be the best hitter on the team neither. we'll see how long he's gone, and what we get for him in the offseason before i pass judgement. same thing with weiland. the guy had an infection inside his throwing shoulder joint. that's pretty bad and it will be like this miracle if he can throw decently again. look what happened to dale murphy's knee.

bourgeois is better than schafer. period. runs better, fields better, pouts less. but he's finished with the astros so they are not gonna go get him. and quintero hooked on with miami. it's not that they were great. it's that a AA loogy ain't much.

you can't stockpile high draft picks any more and especially the astros can't seeing as how they aren't gonna get compensation for anyone. they get 1 pick in the first round/yr and they better hope they get better results from who they DO pick than what they have done. and how they hope to get better results with the same shtty player development people i don't get.

justin t

because they feel sorry for my poor husband that's why

But bbc has a point. The Sox have probably the worst system in baseball ... and you're getting guys who aren't in their top 20 (assuming that's correct). $4 M is a lot for that even if that is a better outcome than becoming Crane's pocket change.

Its a sunk cost. The Astros had to spend that $4 million one way or another. The only question is which would you rather have - Brett Myers or three lottery tickets? It makes much more sense for the Astros to have three lottery tickets, and that's before you even factor the money they save by not having to pay the vesting option.

honestly i DO understand about sunk cost. and lottery ticket is about right. i guess i just wanted something with better odds...

sigh

yes i am sticking it out until the end of the year, even though we won't have any major league players left. it's a heck of a way to go out

I kind of like Walters. I have not actually seen him pitch though, so maybe he has absolutely no stuff. But if he has any stuff, he has maintained a good k rate at 3 levels in one year as a starter, a low walk rate, and is years away from having to go on the 40 man roster. Barring injury, I think he makes the majors, and there is a decent chance he is a solid contributor. Not a star, but someone teams need to have.

Its a sunk cost.

of coruse it is. Like I said, it's a move any GM could and would make under the circumstances. There's no reason to get excited about getting 3 daily game lottery tickets even if you got them for "free." Just like there's no reason for Sox fans to be excited to pick up 2 "free" months of Myers for 3 daily game lottery tickets. The Sox just hope that his .5 WAR contribution arrives in the right game at the right time to keep them ahead of Detroit.

Barring injury, I think he makes the majors, and there is a decent chance he is a solid contributor. Not a star, but someone teams need to have.

I don't know how you can be so confident in the future a college arm who has yet to even crack AA (and whose intro to high A hasn't gone well), especially considering you have never seen him pitch and haven't a clue as to what his stuff looks like.

He is a college arm who has succeeded in low-A. That doesn't say much.

Jeff Luhnow is almost certainly among the smartest people in his peer group. He is very aware of advanced analytical techniques.

It will be interesting to see just how valuable this particular skill set is with a team that's as bereft of impact-caliber ML and MiLB talent as Houston. It will also be interesting to see what happens this offseason, as Luhnow apparently inherited a baseball operations staff full of people who already had contracts for 2012 by the time Luhnow was hired last December. It's likely that both finances and timing prevented him from making wholesale changes last offseason.

Given all of the preceding, it's far too soon to judge Luhnow. My only minor surprise is Houston's apparent passivity before the new spending rules kicked in. Perhaps the Astros made an effort under the radar, but I don't recall hearing the Astros in the mix for any of the major Cuban free agents (Cespedes, Soler, Puig, Concepcion, Luis, et al.) or any of the leftovers from 2011's July 2 class. Now, moving ahead, Houston will be trying to rebuild with essentially the same number of draft picks and same international signing budget as the other 29 teams. Even if the Astros pick in the top 5 for the next three to five years and hit on all of their picks, they'll still be a lot of bodies short of a championship-caliber team.

I grew up working for an Astros affiliate and they're still a sentimental favorite, so I sympathize with Lisa. It's hard to believe the franchise fell as far as it did in the last few years of McLane's ownership.