Great stuff Dan. Thank you.

I'm not sure about how Av/143 compares to Fair/67 but does it mean that ZiPS thinks Eduardo NunEz is a better starting SS option than Derek Jeter in 2012?

It could just be that I'm spoiled but the overall offensive projection doesn't SEEM that great to me. While I would take the over on Granderson and Cano, I can't say that any individual performance seems way out of line either.

EDIT: Lester as the 3rd comp for Banuelos is interesting.

A-Rod's lost almost 60 home runs off his extrapolated career total compared to 2011 ZiPS; meanwhile Sabathia has gained almost twenty wins, with an almost identical ERA.

Zips time already? Sigh, that means the season is almost over.

I guess this means the Yanks spend a zillion bucks on Darvish.

I'm not sure about how Av/143 compares to Fair/67 but does it mean that ZiPS thinks Eduardo NunEz is a better starting SS option than Derek Jeter in 2012?

Within the realm of Diamond Mind Baseball, yes.

Going from most hated team to most liked team I'm assuming?

Grandy's projections surprise me a bit. I can't put my finger on it, but for some reason I see him as a guy that will occasionally suffer a Dunn-like god awful season now and then. Probably won't be til after he's left the Yanks and has signed with the Royals.

That A-Rod contract is sad in light of this new information.

Not a lot of teams have 6 guys under contract that project to be a league-average 1B

offensively or better.

Yeah, but only Cano would be an above average fielder at first. /ducks

It could just be that I'm spoiled but the overall offensive projection doesn't SEEM that great to me.

On first glance it seems that way, but you have to remember the new offensive environment. My projections look very similar although they're not nearly ready yet, and I had the same thought when I first looked at them. They just seemed low across the board.

Here are the collective AL batting lines over the last four years(minus pitchers & pinch-hitters).

2008_AL: .268/.334/.421
2009_AL: .267/.335/.429
2010_AL: .260/.326/.407
2011_AL: .259/.322/.409

Take Teixeira's 2012 projection of .263/.359/.495 as an example. It's roughly equal to a .272/.372/.510 in 2008 and .271/.373/.519 in 2009.

[9] Fair enough. Maybe I'm just feeling the lack of a superstar hitter (based on these projections). Eyeballing it, it looks like the everyday lineup averages out to somewhere around 110 which is pretty good, so I think it is the lack of a stud.

Man, I love the name Slade Heathcott. He just sounds like a baseball player.

I'm not quite ready to confine Jeter to the land players that nobody's ever heard of.

Maybe I'm just feeling the lack of a superstar hitter (based on these projections).

Yeah, mortal Rodriguez for $32M a year stinks.

They probably need someone they'd feel comfortable playing every day at 3B on the bench, because I'd be more surprised than not if Rodriguez exceeds those projected PA. I don't think Nunez is that guy, since 3B do have to field grounders once in a while.

Like you, I think Granderson will exceed that projection, and maybe Cano, but the rest of the projections all look like about what I'd expect. They can win with that offense, but they really need to beef up that rotation.

I would happily take 16:1 odds on A-Rod hitting 30+ HRs in 2012.

Yeah, mortal Rodriguez for $32M a year stinks.

Is that contract really an albatross, though? Will it hold them back from signing Darvish, e.g.? And he's still a better 3B than most.

Sabathia with 293 wins? I'll take both the over and the under. Noooooobody will ever again retire with 281-299 wins.

Is that contract really an albatross, though?

No, he's not actively hurting the team and he's still an asset to have. The problem is you probably have to assume he'll miss at least 40 games a year now.

Will it hold them back from signing Darvish, e.g.?

I am almost certain that Darvish is going to end up on a team that no one suspects. Nationals, Blue Jays, White Sox. Someone like that.

Is that contract really an albatross, though? Will it hold them back from signing Darvish, e.g.? And he's still a better 3B than most.

Not actually $32 next year, it goes down to $31 and continues to go down as he ages. Now in theory that gets boosted back up by $6 million when he hits #660, #714 and #755 but ZiPS obviously thinks the Yankees will only be on the hook for that first pay-out.

I doubt it stops them from signing Darvish*. At the moment, 2013 looks like the ugly year in Yankee-land: They have nearly $100 million committed that year to Rodriguez, Jeter, Burnett, Soriano and Teixeira. So that could be pretty bad. On the other hand, more than $44 million of that goes away after that season, so if they're willing to either take a one-year hit or do some silliness with the backloading of contracts, they can probably work around it.

*Whcih is not to say they are a lock to sign Darvish, just that finances won't stop them.

Robinson Cano 2B 65% 15% 10% 7% 3% Buddy Bell Lou Whitaker Chasey Utley

Chasey?

Don't know how that extra y got in there.

Those odds are given the expected AB - ZiPS is mostly soured on A-Rod's durability.

As always, good stuff, Dan.

Couple of requests, if you don't mind: Dan Brewer and Pat Venditte.

Awesome as always Dan! An above average but not great offense combined with a slightly below average rotation doesn't sound like a playoff team though.

Thanks, Dan.

Jesus Montero's comps are funny, then intriguing, then sad. The funny part is Montero being compared to two young catchers who went on to respectable careers as first basemen.

The intriguing, then sad part is Michael Bishop. This is a kid who managed a 1000 OPS between his age 20 and 21 seasons, back in 1980. A very fair comp for Montero, by the numbers. He was playing in the California, Texas, and Pacific Coast Leagues, which I understand were about as hitter-friendly back then as they are now, but given the era, those are great numbers. The Angels appear to have been unable to pick a position for him, as he put up those numbers while filling in at 3B, 1B, OF, and C. Bishop had a weaker but still solid enough year as a 22-year-old in AAA (800 OPS while playing four positions), and when the Angels committed to him as a catcher in 1982, he posted a good 875 OPS. Somehow Bishop never even managed a call-up, and he signed as a minor league free agent with the Mets in 1983.

The Mets continued the trend of jerking Bishop around - he was demoted to double-A and shifted back to 1B. He destroyed AA pitching for Jackson, but his callup to AAA coincided with a move back behind the plate for whatever reason. Bishop struggled in Tidewater and did little with his cup of coffee in the majors. That's where the records end.

As best as I can tell, Bishop disappears from baseball after 1983, despite being just 24 years old, with a solid to quite impressive minor league record. I tried searching for a NPB record for Bishop - a good bat who perhaps didn't have a position and certainly didn't get a fair chance seems like the sort of guy who would have tried out Japanese baseball in the 1980s, but I can find no record of him playing baseball after '83.

Baseball-reference has a note saying that Bishop died in Bakersfield, CA in 2005, at the age of 46. That's really sad. I thought I'd be able to find a record of Bishop through an obituary, but I'm getting zip from Google or Lexis-Nexis.

Does anyone remember what happened to Michael Bishop?

I doubt it stops them from signing Darvish*. At the moment, 2013 looks like the ugly year in Yankee-land: They have nearly $100 million committed that year to Rodriguez, Jeter, Burnett, Soriano and Teixeira. So that could be pretty bad. On the other hand, more than $44 million of that goes away after that season, so if they're willing to either take a one-year hit or do some silliness with the backloading of contracts, they can probably work around it.

Not sure about it, but I didn't think you could backload posting fees. I thought it was all up front. May be wrong though.

Man, folks are missing all the interesting stuff!*

Andruw!

Jesus! If he really is a FR at C, then he's a major asset.

Romine! Look at that comp list -- Maxim St. Pierre!

Swisher. :-( That comp list (and projection) suggests the end is nigh. Henderson and Burroughs ended at 34 and didn't top 500 PA ages 31-34; Snow lasted longer but never topped 500 PA after 32. It's easy to see Swisher lasting as long as Snow (or Kevin Millar say) given he can play a decent 1B and is a switch-hitter but he'll be pretty marginal pretty soon.

Blasphemy! Is this the first time Mariano is not the top projected reliever in baseball? Not even tops on his own team. Time to upgrade the software.

Betances?? He's touted as a pretty prized prospect around these parts but a 5.60 ERA for a 24-year-old doesn't sound too impressive to me.

Nitpick: Bell seems odd as Cano's #1 comp. Bell never hit for anything like that kind of power. He did have a big year (OPS+ wise) at 28 but wasn't in Cano's league at 26 and 27. I know there aren't a lot of 2B that match Cano's profile so it's not surprising that ZiPS went outside the box but a moderate power 3B seems an odd choice. Even the crappy sims at b-r turn up Brett (too good at those ages), Torre (just about right) and David Wright (too many walks and that plunging BA thing). Positionally, Vidro or Alomar would seem better comps than Bell; non-positionally Yount or Bernie Williams (too many walks).

* interesting stuff = trivial bits I noticed

Jesus! If he really is a FR at C, then he's a major asset.

Those catcher ratings are just for throwing, not overall defense.

Blasphemy!

I didn't miss that (or Andruw), and that was the same word I thought of using. But since I couldn't think of anything else funny too say, I didn't bother...

Man, I love the name Slade Heathcott. He just sounds like a baseball player.

He's no Blast Hardcheese.

I figured this would be as good a place as any. I just downloaded DMB, though don't have a disc yet. Is there a place to download any old thing for free just to give the game a whirl? I'm intending to use it to transfer my 6-team fictional table top league but that's going to take quite a while to do. I was hoping in the mean time to just play a game or two to see what it's like.

I'll make sure to do Venditte and Brewer. Not sure why I didn't do Venditte since I did him last year.

Greg, email me and I can give you something to play with.

DSzymborski@gmail.com

Will do, thanks a lot!

I'll take the over on Mo's ERA+

Here's a homemade All-Time Greats disk for DMB.

Not sure about it, but I didn't think you could backload posting fees. I thought it was all up front. May be wrong though.

I don't think you can, but I was just talking about free agent contracts in general, not Darvish in particular.

Awesome as always Dan! An above average but not great offense combined with a slightly below average rotation doesn't sound like a playoff team though.

Well, depends how many playoff teams Bud is letting in! Jokes aside, I would guess the Yankees make a real effort at improving their rotation one way or another.

Thanks for the disc Dan.

I didn't realize there was pitch-by-pitch play-by-play! Endless fun.

I appreciate any mention of Jeff Manto.

Going from most hated team to most liked team I'm assuming?

It would be really great if, instead of switching to random draw, Dan started deciding different odd sets of criteria like that each season to determine the order.

Chasey?

Don't know how that extra y got in there.

That would have been his nickname 100 years ago.

I wonder who the most liked team would be. Tampa?

I wonder who the most liked team would be. Tampa?

If Dan is doing the list, that'd be Baltimore

If Dan is doing the list, that'd be Baltimore

I wouldn't be so sure about that, have you seen the Orioles the last decade+?

With the AL ERA down to 4.19 this year, are 96 & 108 ERA+ still the league average for SP and RP? Also, could you give us the average OPS+ for each position this year? Thanks.

With the AL ERA down to 4.19 this year, are 96 & 108 ERA+ still the league average for SP and RP?


Sigh.

Wow, I did not realize how bad an August onwards Brett Gardner had.

Wrong thread.

Looks like ZiPS doesn't see Teixeira's average coming back.

Jeter's defensive projection (Fr) surprised me, and so does his offensive projection (82 OPS+). I guess ZiPS sees Jeter cratering after all.

I see ZiPS thinks ARod's decline is here to stay. I still see a couple more big seasons from him. Don't know when they'll come.

By reputation, the defensive ratings for Teixeira/Cano/ARod would seem to be better than AV. Especially the first two.

44 - Gardner is very, very streaky. He doesn't really have any setting between what he did in August and September and what he did against Detroit in the ALDS.

I personally enjoy that Freddy Garcia's #1 comp is Aaron Small.

Sorry. What I meant was where did the AL starters average ERA land... Somewhere around 4.36 with RP 3.88? Thanks 'zop. Helpful.

According to Baseball Reference's league splits, AL starters had a collective ERA of 4.21 compared to 3.82 for relievers. ERA+ of 97 and 107 respectively.

I wonder who the most liked team would be. Tampa?

If Dan is doing the list, that'd be Baltimore

And if Yankee fans are doing the list, they might agree, since the Birds put the "over" in "It's over".