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Isn't the really important thing from the lineup analysis work not to much who bats where, but that you shouldn't bunch all your shitty hitters together? Basically you don't want 3 "easy outs" in a row at the 7,8,9 spot.
I thought the conclusion was the opposite of that. You lump your best hitters together to maximize your chance of scoring in those and put the crappy hitters together so that they don't hurt the rest of the lineup.
Naturally this is totally irrelevant, because no major league players would accept being ordered based on the wisdom of some nerd that plays a lot of video games (nor, one might reasonably argue, should they). Fortunately it doesn't really matter very much.
Who is the last MVP winner (nearly unanimous at that) to hit #5 in his team's lineup?
a dedicated Madden player will manage the clock in as many games in two days as an NFL head coach does in a year.
"thinking that players are the same skill level on a day-to-day basis is about the dumbest concept that the stat junkies of the world has fostered onto the rest of the world."
But won't those games be, say, 10 minutes long? I didn't think most Madden games have a full 60-minute clock.
I honestly don't understand that bit.
These things are not ever considered in any 'lineup' construction models, they always look at just the raw numbers of the players and their lefty / righty splits. There are more than lefty / righty splits, some batters could have splits based upon the arm angle of the pitcher, the style of the pitcher, the park(beyond just park effects) ambiance etc.
The good Phillies teams are an example. I seem to recall them going Utley-Howard-Werth a fair amount, which is just insane.
Thanks for explaining. I'm inclined to think that even if you do know each player's true skill level on a given day, it's better to give everyone stability by writing basically the same lineup card every day than to jigger it each day to optimize for those skill and/or matchup fluctuations, except in extreme cases.
Utley-Howard-Werth would be fine if you were willing and able to pinch-hit for Howard when the inevitable lefthanded reliever faces him late in the game.
In the Pirates' case they bat McCutchen third and Alvarez, who like Howard cannot hit lefties to save his life and never will, fourth. At least twice last year, trailing by one late, they got a runner on first with McCutchen on deck and less than two out, and had the #2 hitter bunt the runner over. In both cases the opposing manager was more than happy to walk McCutchen and bring in a LOOGY to strike Alvarez out.
That's bad strategy and tactics.
Yea, you've played too much strato. If the splits are bad enough sure, don't group them all back to back to back on a day a LHP is on the mound, but worrying about the 7th, 8th and 9th inning reliever matchups when making your lineup should pretty much be ignored. Too much can happen in the meanwhile and if a righty starts, then you're looking at 21 or so outs before it's even a thought.
It's also probably a reason why effective switch-hitters are a bit more valuable than we credit them for.
I suspect that's a big chunk of the reason why Barry Bonds hit #5 in 1993, when he won the MVP in his first season in SF. The middle of that order went R-L-R-L (Thompson, Clark, Williams, Bonds). Of course, Dusty should have swapped Clark and Bonds, but oh well...
It hardly seems accidental ... of the top 20 (by OPS+) switch-hitters of the integration era, 7 have spent at least a few seasons with the Yanks and Beltran is about to make it #8: Mantle, Tex, Bernie, Raines, Beltran, Posada, Roy White, Swisher. Chili Davis and Berkman also had short late-career stints with them.
* Barry Bonds in 1993
Whitey Herzog loved him some switch hitter too...when Joaquin Andujar was batting, the Cardinals could have 7 switch hitters in the lineup.
One of my dreams is to have my son be an effective switch-hitter. He turns 16 in a few days and I'm working on it. 16 months, that is.
In 1961, Roger Maris batted third and Mickey Mantle batted fourth. Maris hit .269 but drove in a team-leading 142 runs (w/ 61 homers), while Mantle batted .317 and drove in 128 (w/ 54 homers). Meanwhile, Elston Howard hit .348, arguably making him the best hitter that year, but had just 77 RBIs. I guess when you've got a number of very good hitters, it doesn't matter where your best one bats as long as your pitchers give up fewer runs than you. (Crucially, the 1-2 hitters -- Bobby Richardson and maybe Tony Kubek, if I remember correctly -- were on base a lot, despite having modest averages in the .270 range.)
Richardson and Kubek each had 170+ hits in 1961, team highs. No they didn't walk much, but they were on base a lot, and if they didn't score more it wasn't their fault. No doubt both Maris and Mantle hit a lot of solo shots. Richardson walked 30 times, which gave him over 200 opportunities to score.
Wow. Just...wow. Rarely do you see somebody work so hard to go out of their way to defy logic.
Of course thanks to retrosheet/bb-ref splits, you can see that Maris had 322 pa with men on, 81 of those with two men on and 2 of those with the bases loaded, meaning he had 407 men on base for him over the course of the season.... not sure if that is a lot or not, but it's a fair number. (looking for someone with a high average and relatively low ops+ and I have Mike Lowell with a .324 avg, 120 rbi and 521 batters on base in front of him) Not sure what it proves...just free thinking.
No doubt both Maris and Mantle hit a lot of solo shots.
It seems that most switch- hitters have L-R splits that are larger than singlehanded hitters. Teach your kid to hit left-handed, and leave it at that.
Was Backman a "natural" RHB or LHB. It seems to me that most of your scrappy infield/CF types taught to switch-hit started as RHB and their teams were teaching them to switch-hit in hopes the LHB-RHP platoon advantage would get their offense up to an acceptable level. It did often turn out that they became better LHB than RHB.
Anyway, Victorino's L/R OPS is 880, it's very unlikely he'd have done that as R/R.
I play a fair amount of Strat-O-Matic, and for me, a real key is going L-R-L-R-L to the greatest extent possible. It may well be more important in Strat, because the opponent knows how his relievers will match up against my hitters, so the L-R-L will force him to make tougher decisions. Still, I never understood why some managers seemed to go out of their way to bunch LH hitters together. The good Phillies teams are an example. I seem to recall them going Utley-Howard-Werth a fair amount, which is just insane.
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