Let's see...they went 77-85 last year, with the Pythag at 79-83. Their two most valuable players by WAR--Reyes and Beltran--are gone. But you have to figure they get more out of Wright and a couple of other guys (Davis, for example). I would guess Silva wins the bet, but I can't see them getting close to .500.

I think a complete train wreck 100 loss team might be better to watch than another 72-77 win team.

I think a complete train wreck 100 loss team might be better to watch than another 72-77 win team.

My hatred of all that is New York agrees.

Lessee...

Tejada
Bay
Wright
Davis
Duda
Torres
Turner
Thole/Nickeas

What's the over under on HRs? 85?

Santana (?)
Dickey
Pelfrey
Niese (if he's not traded)
Gee

Francisco
Rauch
Ramon Ramirez
Parnell
Acosta
Byrdak
Beato?

Bench

Murphy's ACL
Ronny Cedeno
?
?

Urgh. I can see this going... not well. What we might be forgetting is that even with the injuries, the Mets got good years from Thole, Tejada, and Duda. Certainly as good as we could have expected. Davis was great when he played. Murphy was great when he played. Beltran is gone, but he and Reyes gave the Mets as much as anyone could have asked. Pagan wasn't good, but I think he has more upside than Torres.

Who the frak is going to play a corner OF if Bay gets even worse--Daniel Murphy? Every team has to play their fourth and fifth OFers contemporaneously from time to time. That's going to be brutal. Sure, Wright and Davis were injured, but everyone else was healthy, and the Mets got 157 starts out of their five best starters. Imagine this season if they only get from their top five what most teams get. Imagine if they have bad luck with injuries throughout the roster.

Over-under?

Davis and Wright better. Thole, Turner, Murphy, Duda, Bay, Tejada a little worse, overall.
Capuano gone. Santana better, but pitching less. Some injuries in the rotation, so 40 starts due from guys not even on the roster.

Bullpen about the same (Francisco and Ramirez making up for FRod and Izzy. Rauch useless. Byrdak a little worse, Parnell a little better). All in all a little worse than last year. Maybe. It'll be pretty close in any case.

Oh, and two HOF seasons in Beltran and Reyes gone. Crap.

70 wins, just because I didn't want to write 68.

edit: not because the author thought 68, just because it crosses that line to a lower-lower-middle class neighborhood, like building your houses on Connecticut Avenue in Monopoly rather than [name of one of those purple streets right around the corner].


edit: if I may, the underline function instead italicizes. When I click "edit" I go to the bottom of the page.

I'd like to say this is similar to 2008 when Francesspool gassed out "Mark it down...the Tampa Bay Rays will not win 55 games this season!" (they won 97)

But it's not.

Well, he wuz right, no?

Um . . . I hate to say it, but I'm not seeing how this team (realistically) gets to 70 wins. Sure, the upside is higher than that -- if Wright recaptures some version of 2006-07, and Ike Davis stays healthy and takes a major step forward, and Johan comes back as Johan for some big part of 120 innings . . . . But realistically? I'd take the under on 68.

Think about the basic core of the everyday line-up: it's mostly comprised of the young players they've developed and brought onto the major league roster in the last couple of seasons: Thole, Davis, Tejada, Duda. Maybe Murphy at 2B, too. It's great, to a degree, that they've developed young players, and given them an opportunity, but they all strike me (perhaps with one exception) as having the upside of being complementary players at best. Think about Josh Thole -- what's he going to be, the sixth-best position player on a good team? Maybe he could be fifth-best if the top four are Beltran/Wright/Delgado/Reyes all at their 2006 levels. Tejada isn't going to be a top player on a contender, and neither is Duda. The exception might be Ike Davis, if everything goes right; he could be a top three player on a contender . . . if that team has a really great top two, and a balanced rest of the line-up in which Davis happens to be the third-best. It's nice to have brought along some at-least-decent-young-talent, and giving that talent a chance to play, but a team stocked with those guys isn't going to win 70 games.

And the same is true on the pitching side. Pelfrey is what he is. Dickey and Gee are nice pitchers, but neither is dominant. Niese has the peripherals and might break through to be the best on this staff, but how much does it mean to be the best on this staff -- and even if he's every good, how much is he going to win backed up by a weak line-up? If anyone wants to count on Johan to be the savior (see above), be my guest, but would any of you want to take the "over" getting the equivalent value of 100 innings of league-average pitching from him right now?

If you gave me my choice of 60, 65, 70, 75, or 80 wins as my prediction for the Mets, as the roster stands right now, I wouldn't hesitate much before I'd pick 65. And to be honest, if you gave me the choice of the Mets winning 80 games, or the Wilpons announcing a sale of the team, I'd take 65-97 in a heartbeat.

My hatred of all that is New York agrees.

How do you hate a city? I can understand hating a place or entity within a city - Wall Street, or the Yankees - but hating a city in general is just weird. I may not have any desire to live in, for example, Boise, but it's not like I reflexively spew bile at anything Boise-related.

I'd like to say this is similar to 2008 when Francesspool gassed out "Mark it down...the Tampa Bay Rays will not win 55 games this season!" (they won 97)

55 != 97 QED

I don't really hate a city, I hate New York's excessive influence on the rest of real America. I do hate the Mess and the Yankees, out of spite, one is a good team, the other is the Mess. then you have the same thing with their two football teams, neither of which is worth a crap and yet both of them chew up a crapload of media space(I mean, seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good(definition of good is top ten in the league) but yet we hear about them all the time. Jeter has won 5 undeserved gold gloves, and you think the excessive media play hasn't factored into that? heck this website, just linked an article in which a a decent major leaguer(a clear step below Dale Murphy) son got signed by the Yankees. really how is that news of any sort? Oh wait, it's because it's New York.

I mean, it's funny to watch tv shows in which unrealistic things happen. I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence(or the upper hollywood influence, which is really just east coasters wishing they were cool enough to be New Yorkers)

I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence

Okay, I'm not going to go into your other complaints, but this is just insane to me. Seriously? You've never had anything else? Is this really normal? Has anybody else here experienced the same thing?

I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian...

Seriously, cardsfanboy, where do you live? I grew up in rural Michigan, which I'm pretty sure counts as "real America," and I know plenty of people there who love sushi and Indian food, though they have to drive all the way to Lansing or Grand Rapids to get them.

Or did my sarcasm detector blow a fuse?

I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence

Okay, I'm not going to go into your other complaints, but this is just insane to me. Seriously? You've never had anything else? Is this really normal? Has anybody else here experienced the same thing?

I'm taking my niece to an Indian restaurant tomorrow night. Tuesday night I went grocery shopping, bought sushi at the prepared food counter, and ate it while driving home.

So, I guess that's a no.

edit: and real people who have never been within 500 miles of NY looooove Chinese food.

edit: and real people who have never been within 500 miles of NY looooove Chinese food.

Most of them have never actually eaten Chinese food, though.

How do you hate a city? I can understand hating a place or entity within a city - Wall Street, or the Yankees - but hating a city in general is just weird.

I see you've never been to Winnipeg.

I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian...

Man, where do you live?

I used to order Indian food to the house all the time, and that was when I lived in Regina, Saskatchewan. (of course it was Regina, so it was pretty much just butter chicken, tikka masala, lamb vindaloo, and some pakoras, but I think that's still at least somewhat legit)
It's only since then that I've developed a taste for sushi (to be more accurate I guess it's wasabi I like, the sushi is just a fine carrier for it), but sushi was quite popular in that massive metropolis of 200,000 a few hours north of North Dakota.

Pesonally I don't much like New York either, because of the teams, and because I'm not a fan of big cities, of which New York seems to be the poster child. But that just seems crazy. (And I hope I don't come off as a dick here, I actually am genuinely curious where you're living that it has no indian food)

How do you hate a city? I can understand hating a place or entity within a city - Wall Street, or the Yankees - but hating a city in general is just weird.

I see you've never been to Winnipeg.

LOVE the weakerthans reference. nicely done sir.

LOVE the weakerthans reference. nicely done sir.

If we're doing Joel Plaskett we could go with Kelowna.

My love for the Weakerthans is the one thing preventing me from ACTUALLY hating Winnipeg. Though that has more to do with personal experience than any inherent fault in the city itself.

Optimism day!

68 wins - I win, 67 wins - I lose, Sam.

71 wins - I win, 70 wins - I lose, something other.

No more than a $25 bbref each. Are one or both of you in?


(I know I have a standing Ollie Pete bet. No one has come to collect!)

seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good(definition of good is top ten in the league)

I think Eli Manning is top ten, but just around 8-10th. Sanchez is not good. He has played well in the playoffs, so got the winner label.

seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good

Manning is actually good. Is there anyone inside of New York who thinks Sanchez is good? I hope not.

And I'd like to point out the football teams play in New Jersey.

No bet, Lassus. I am very pessimistic about the level of talent on hand for 2012, but fearing/believing it's gonna be bad is completely fifferent from having a rooting interest in them losing 90-some games. I'd never bet on the Mets to be awful, even when that's what I see.

Eli is really good now. Is he as good as Rodgers, Brady, Brees? Of course not. But he finished 6th in Footballoutsiders DYAR, and 8th in DVOA. I think he is easily within the top 10 in the league, and he may be closer to 5 than 10. Who are the 10 guys better than him? (I also think he should be extra credit for never missing a start).

Edit: At this point, I don't think anyone in NY thinks Sanchez is good either.

Eli is really good now. Is he as good as Rodgers, Brady, Brees? Of course not. But he finished 6th in Footballoutsiders DYAR, and 8th in DVOA. I think he is easily within the top 10 in the league, and he may be closer to 5 than 10. Who are the 10 guys better than him? (I also think he should be extra credit for never missing a start).

I don't think there's anybody other than those three I'd take over Eli right now. He's top-5.

Fair enough, Sam. I admit I didn't think about that part. I don't think you need to have a rooting interest, though. Some Met somewhere on bbref will win. ;-)

Winner gets a vintage Kay/Silvatone Guitar!

I have a 1954 National, but the body was made by Kay.

CFB must be stuck in 1950 somewhere, I live in (near) a city of about 75k that is over 90% white, and we have authentic Indian, Japanese, Greek, Caribbean, Korean, and Mexican restaurants. That's not to say they are all great restaurants, but they are run by ethnic people at least.

It's great, to a degree, that they've developed young players, and given them an opportunity, but they all strike me (perhaps with one exception) as having the upside of being complementary players at best.

I don't disagree too much with this statement but I don't get how that flows to a team that challenges for 100 losses. You say complementary players - I say league average. If your offense is filled with league average players, the pitching would have to be a complete disaster to finish with 95+ losses.

Now, I'm not saying the pitching is good - not by a large margin. But I feel pretty confident that Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey are going to be legitimate MLB pitchers. While Gee is likely to be replacement level, you have to figure Santana or whoever else fills out the rotation will be just as bad, plus some of the first three to miss significant time to get in the neighborhood of that many losses.

Given the Mets recent injury history, I wouldn't rule that out. But I think you have to project bad health from three of the projected starters to get there.

Back to the hitters, here are the OPS projections for the starters from Bill James:

Thole - .722
Davis - .881
Murphy - .811
Wright - .862
Tejada - .656
Bay - .791
Torres - .737
Duda - .852

Meanwhile, here were the OPS numbers for the starters on the 1993 Mets, the last team in franchise history to lose 100 games:

Hundley - .626
Murray - .792
Kent - .765
Bogar - .652
HoJo - .732
Coleman - .691
Thompson - .747
Bonilla - .874

The average NL team scored 4.43 rpg in 1993, likely higher than what we'll see in 2012.

Yes, the James projections are "optimstic" and some of the players won't come close to these forecasts. Regardless, the 2012 offense will be way better than the 1993 offense and it's unlikely the 2012 Mets will have a pitcher with a 68 ERA+ make 18 starts (Schourek) and have another pitcher go 1-16 (Young) like the '93 club did.

It's one thing not to like Indian/Sushi, but to not know anyone who's had it? And what is "real food" to you? What the what? What?

So much wtf?

About hating NY, eh, I get it. I can't stand LA because of its utter lack of public transport (I can drive just fine, but I don't much enjoy it). But I will spend time there to see friends who live there.

I live in NC, in a town with an estimated 50,000 people, 75% white. Our largest minority is Latino and we have many different Mexican restaurants staffed with non-whites. We also have three different Asian places, all staffed with non-whites. We also have a Greek restaurant. The owners are Greek, but the non-relative employees are white.

I'm a Mets fan, I'm more than likely moving to NYC in 6 months, and even I hate NY so I totally get that. It's like the Toronto of America.

But a life without Thai food -- I weep for you and your friends, CFB.

I don't think there's anybody other than those three I'd take over Eli right now.

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Manning Senior, Rivers for sure. Then Stafford, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Romo, Newton. I'm pretty comfortable with all of those above Eli.

He certainly had a good year last year. Still, his career numbers are eerily like those of Elvis Grbac.

here are the OPS projections for the starters from Bill James:

Don't ever use Bill James projections. His offensive levels don't match his pitching levels. The hitting #'s are always wildly optimistic.

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Manning Senior, Rivers for sure. Then Stafford, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Romo, Newton. I'm pretty comfortable with all of those above Eli.

He certainly had a good year last year. Still, his career numbers are eerily like those of Elvis Grbac.

Really? That's crazy talk to me.

We don't know if Peyton Manning will ever throw a ball again. What have Rivers, Stafford, Ryan, Romo and Newton ever done to make you think they're elite?

Football doesn't work like baseball. Stats are completely team and context dependent. Lot's of guys can put up gaudy stats b/c of system and situation.

Edit: Classic example, Matt Cassel looked like a great QB when he got to play for NE.

Eli had his phenomenal year with no running game, and an O-line in complete disarray.

I'm a Mets fan, I'm more than likely moving to NYC in 6 months, and even I hate NY so I totally get that. It's like the Toronto of America.

Or the Paris of France, the London of England and so on.
Any nation that has a "#1 City" (whether by size, population, financial/cultural/commercial influence) is going to have that dynamic.

I say that as someone who "hates" New York as well. Though I don't hate Toronto in the same way (probably because I was born and raised there). But I fully understand people who feel that way about Toronto. (and I know quite a few of them from having lived in other parts of Canada for years) I would never begrudge them that self-indulgence either since I do the exact same thing with New York, and somewhat with Paris as well.

I'm not sure how the describe the dynamic exactly. Inferiority complex seems pretty patronizing/insulting.

I would never begrudge them that self-indulgence either since I do the exact same thing with New York, and somewhat with Paris as well.

There are people that hate Paris? WTF?

I'm not sure how the describe the dynamic exactly. Inferiority complex seems pretty patronizing/insulting.

Antireverseprovincialism. One of those things ze Germans probably have a great word for.

There are people that hate Paris? WTF?

Large swaths of Frenchman for starters.

My dislike of Paris is entirely irrational however. Both times I've been there it's been at the tail end of month+ long tours of Europe at which point I was spent and so did not enjoy it much. Also I'm not much of a fan of large cities. And I find it mildly annoying that large numbers of people seem to love Paris without ever having been there.

I'm not particularly proud of those reasons for my dislike, just like I think my hatred of New York says more about me than it does New York...but there it is.

Well, I'm sure there's some validity to this criticism. I'm not too worried about it because I'm not looking at all of MLB or a significant portion, like making projections for a fantasy league. I'm looking at a subset of 1/30 of the players in MLB. Let's check to see how the Bill James projections did with last year. The Bill James projection will be listed first and the actual in brackets.

Thole - .737 (.690) - .722
Davis - .862 (.925)- .789
Murphy - .794 (.809)- .764
Wright - .890 (.771)- .842
Reyes - .771 (.877)- .776
Bay - .840 (.703)- .804
Pagan - .764 (.694)- .750
Beltran - .847 (.904)- .801

The final number is the ZiPS projection. On the players that they disagreed on (OPS difference of .020 or more) - ZiPS had a better projection for Wright and Bay while James was better on Davis (only 149 PA), Murphy and Beltran.

My main concern is that the comparison was used with a systematic approach. I used Bill James because they were available on the FG player page without having me to add up SLG/OBP. If you did that for ZiPS, you'd get lower numbers than the James but the point would still be the same - the 2012 Mets offense projects better than the 1993 one.

There are people that hate Paris? WTF?

Well, it is filled with French people, so that is a pretty poor start.

Or did my sarcasm detector blow a fuse?

Cardafanboy doesn't do sarcasm. Just baseless, aimless, repetitive rants. I can actually taste the bile when I read his moronic comments.

I think I dislike LA and similar places based on what they represent: just wide unchecked sprawl. But then, I'm very much a subway-riding type. So it does say as much about me as it does about the place.

I might feel differently at age 45 and move. But, my dad is 67 and still lives in Manhattan, so...

(Technically, NY's metro area is larger than LA's, and has many more people, but hopping the Metro-North/NJ Trans/LIRR/Path and reading a magazine doesn't bother me nearly as much as driving 90 mins.)

Yeah, I don't know how anyone could put Peyton ahead of Eli right now. If he's anywhere close to the QB he was before, then sure, but if you could have either guy quarterbacking your team next year, you'd take Peyton over Eli? (If you had to make the decision right now).

I would take Eli over Ryan in a heartbeat. Ryan played 12 games indoors this year, Eli played 3.

Rivers I would've agreed with you on before this year, but he had his worst year and Eli his best year this year. Still might side with Rivers.

I would take Eli over Ryan in a heartbeat. Ryan played 12 games indoors this year, Eli played 3, and I don't see why Ryan did that was more impressive anyway.
Stafford? Guy has played one healthy year. It was a great year, but Eli threw for more yards per pass, pretty significantly (8.38 to 7.6), I can't find the net numbers, but Eli didn't take a lot of sacks, so I'm guessing he's still going to be ahead of him there. And I count 11 dome games for Stafford.

Not going to go through all of the guys. The big 3 are the only guys I would definitely take over Eli. I think guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger are in Eli's class.

Eli is really good; as Snapper points out, they haven't been able to run the ball, and I don't think the Oline has been all that great pass protecting, but he doesn't take sacks. (6th in the league in adjusted sack rate). He pretty clearly became a better QB during that super bowl run, he went from a 57% completion rate to over 60%, and he's stayed there every year, with more yards per pass.

I'm not too worried about it because I'm not looking at all of MLB or a significant portion, like making projections for a fantasy league. I'm looking at a subset of 1/30 of the players in MLB. Let's check to see how the Bill James projections did with last year. The Bill James projection will be listed first and the actual in brackets.

That's exactly why this criticism *does* matter. If you were looking at all of the players, they would all suffer from the same bias, and it wouldn't affect you. But since you're looking at a handful of projections in a vacuum (essentially comparing them to the offensive level you and the readers have in their heads), the projections are going to seem better than they really are.

As regards Winnipeg, I have never myself voyaged there but I have two very conflicting data points established in my mind.

One is the group Venetian Snares, which makes terrible music my roommates used to listen to jokingly and has songs titled "Winnipeg is ####### Over" and "Winnipeg is a Frozen ########."

The other, however, is Guy Maddin's lovingly crafted "My Winnipeg", which makes it seem like a pretty cool place, at least if you're a native.

Bench

Murphy's ACL
Ronny Cedeno
?
?

Scott Hairston is one. The other's going to be someone like Mike Baxter.

The other, however, is Guy Maddin's lovingly crafted "My Winnipeg", which makes it seem like a pretty cool place, at least if you're a native.

Oddly enough this is one of my negative Winnipeg data points as the only things I know about Guy Maddin are what I gleaned from having drinks with his ex-wife once. It was not a happy divorce.

(in case it's not clear, my dislike of Winnipeg is mostly based on personal experience, irrational bias, and says more about me than the town)

I mean, it's funny to watch tv shows in which unrealistic things happen. I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence(or the upper hollywood influence, which is really just east coasters wishing they were cool enough to be New Yorkers)

This is just crazy talk. I live in a midwestern suburb and I get Chinese food delivered all the time. My entire family has had Indian food, sushi, Mongolian food, Spanish food (which is NOT Mexican food), and so on.

None of which has jack all to do with New York, might I add.

Honestly, I don't know how you've never met someone that's eaten Chinese food, at least. How can that be possible? Where do you live? I've been to tiny rural towns that have Chinese places.

And how does he know he's never met someone who's eaten Indian food? It's likely you have.

Do you ask all of them if they're limited in gastronomical experience?

(I mean, seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good(definition of good is top ten in the league)

This is such a wrongheaded comment on every level
(caveat I'm a Jets fan)
1: No one in NY (save some people who run the Jets unfortunately) thinks Sanchex is even adequate, let alone good- if you are getting the impression that some people somewhere think Sanchez is good, you are not getting it from NY/New Yorkers
2: I'm not a Giants fan, and thought it was hysterical when Eli claimed to be as good as Brady, but Brady is not the standard for "good," but lets see, top 10 in TDs, 6 times, 7th overall among active QBs, passing yards top 10, 4 times, 9th among active QBs, passing yards per game, top 10 3 times, yards per pass attempt top 10 3 times- the last 3 years, yes he reeked his first couple of seasons, that was then, this is now

I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence(or the upper hollywood influence, which is really just east coasters wishing they were cool enough to be New Yorkers)

Hell, I live in Colorado, not even in Denver, and there's damn good foreign, not-Mexican-or-Italian food all over the place, all doing great business. Thai, sushi, Vietnamese, Indian, even Ethiopian. There's a good Indian restaurant 5 blocks from my house, I go there all the time. What the hell are you talking about?