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Whoops, I meant to cancel this and have a full squad one instead. I'll just C/P here.
Reserves:
AL:
C- Joe Mauer, Min
C- Matt Wieters, Bal
1B- Paul Konerko, CWS
2B- Ian Kinsler, Tex
SS- Elvus Andrus, Tex
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle
3B- Miguel Cabrera, Det
OF- Adam Jones, Bal
OF- Mike Trout, LAA
OF- Mark Trumbo, LAA
DH- Adam Dunn, CWS
DH- Billy Butler, KCR
NL
C- Carlos Ruiz, Phi
C- Yadier Molina, StL
1B- Brian LaHair, ChC
2B- Jose Altuve, Hou
SS- Starlin Castro, ChC
SS- Ian Desmond, Was
3B- David Wright, NYM
OF- Jay Bruce, Cin
OF- Carlos Gonzalez, Col
OF- Giancarlo Stanton, Mia
OF- Ryan Braun, Mil
OF- Andrew McCutchen, Pit
Pitchers:
AL:
SP- Matt Harrison, Tex
SP- Felix Hernandez, Sea
SP- Justin Verlander, Det
SP- CC Sabathia, NYY*
SP- CJ Wilson, LAA**
SP- Jered Weaver, LAA
SP- Chris Sale, CWS
SP- David Price, Tam
RP- Joe Nathan, Tex
RP- Ryan Cook, Oak
RP- Jim Johnson, Bal
RP- Chris Perez, Cle
RP- Fernando Rodney, Tam
NL:
SP- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
SP- Gio Gonzalez, Was
SP- Stephen Strasburg, Was
SP- Cole Hamels, Phi
SP- Wade Miley, Ari
SP- RA Dickey, NYM
SP- Matt Cain, SF
RP- Jon Papelbon, Phi
RP- Craig Kimbrel, Atl
RP- Aroldis Chapman, Cin
RP- Lance Lynn, StL
RP- Joel Hanrahan, Pit
RP- Huston Street, SD
* Will Miss ASG with Injury
** Injury Replacement
Rosters at MLB.com: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2012/roster_league.jsp
34th Man:
AL:
RP Jonathan Broxton, KCR
SP Yu Darvish, Tex
RP Ernesto Frieri, LAA
SP Jason Hammel, Bal
SP Jake Peavy, CWS
NL:
OF Michael Bourn, Atl
3B David Freese, Stl
OF Bryce Harper, Was
2B Aaron Hill, Ari
3B Chipper Jones, Atl
As far as crimes against selection go, closers with a hot half-season screwing over veteran starters. Case in point: almost the entire AL bullpen over Jake Peavy.
Third note: Rafael Furcal being selected as the starting NL SS over either Jed Lowrie or Ian Desmond is pathetic, but that's the dangers of democracy for you. I'm glad Desmond got selected as a reserve (and he can thank Tony La Russa for that, as La Russa has always openly praised Ian Desmond whenever he gets the chance), but Jed Lowrie really deserved to make the team. Sucks to play for Houston.
I'm pretty frustrated that Santana didn't make the team. I'm quite frustrated that ####### Panda is the starter over Wright. I mean come the #### on. Wright's been the second best player in the NL this year, behind an out of this world Votto.
And I screwed up Lance Lynn, he's a SP obviously, not a RP.
Well, they want one representative from every team.
That explains Cook, but not Perez, Rodney or Johnson. Isn't there a minimum number of relievers they have to take? That's the rule I'd change.
Rafael Furcal being selected as the starting NL SS over either Jed Lowrie or Ian Desmond is pathetic
Furcal's having a pretty good season and has had a better career to date than either Lowrie or Desmond. I would have picked Lowrie but I don't see it as a travesty that he's not on the team.
The guys I would have liked to see make it who didn't are Mike Moustakas, Brett Lawrie and Madison Bumgarner.
Bourn's doubly screwed. Braves fans will vote for sentimental favorite Chipper, and everyone else will go for Harper. He's probably the big snub this year.
I'm not sure the starting lineup is WTF, except for maybe Melky, and he's having a fine season. It seems like these picks are consistent with the players' popularity and the fans' conception of how good they are.
EDIT: Okay, yeah, Panda over Wright is weird, but San Francisco has a relatively fervid fanbase, and not enough Mets fans are going to games this year, where they would be encouraged to vote for Wright.
Fourth note: the Nationals could conceivably place four players on the NL team if Harper wins the final vote. Wow.
I'm more amazed the craptastic Cubs have two players.
16.ShoeGrit posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:27 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
I'm pretty frustrated that Santana didn't make the team. I'm quite frustrated that ####### Panda is the starter over Wright. I mean come the #### on. Wright's been the second best player in the NL this year
Especially with the no-hitter, I'm surprised Johan didn't make it.
24.flournoy posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:39 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
As far as crimes against selection go, closers with a hot half-season screwing over veteran starters. Case in point: almost the entire AL bullpen over Jake Peavy.
Managers prefer to take relievers over starters. There aren't as many restrictions about whether the relievers are allowed to pitch or not, and relievers obviously have more experience pitching out of the bullpen.
25.Shock posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:41 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Wait, Carlos Ruiz is hitting .358/.423/.585 ? !?!??! The hell? And I passed over him in Fantasy for Delmon Young. Blah.
Similarly, Barney's getting an inappropriate amount of defensive credit.
2.4 dWAR in less than half a season? Yeah, pardon me if I don't quite buy that. I mean, his defense is probably good, but not 5 wins/season good.
27.flournoy posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:42 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Uggla and Altuve are interesting selections at 2B:
I'm not sure what your list is intended to prove, beyond that a banjo hitting second baseman for a bad team might be deserving of a slot if you trust some defensive metrics.
28.ShoeGrit posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:44 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Sandoval over Wright and 8 other players is odd:
Not odd if the fans know better than to only consider the first few months of the season when making their all star selections. Ok...I realize it's more about SFO fans ballot stuffing than fan understanding of sample size. (See Cabrera, Melky over Braun)
Oh come on, Shoewizard. If you give any weight to the current season, you've gotta take Wright over Panda. Especially since the last 162 games for Panda goes all the way back to 2010. It's the way the balloting works, so I'm not calling foul or anything, but it is very frustrating especially given that Wright lead in the voting virtually the entire way.
I think you can also legitimately say WTF about Napoli. He's not having nearly as good a year as Mauer or Weiters, Saltalamacchia or even Pierzynski. By fWAR he's tied with Carlos Santana. He's got 1 WAR. He's gone from woefully underrated to massively overrated over the course of about calendar year.
It's all a little less weird when you consider that All-Star voting started something like three weeks into the season.
It is definitely weird that James McDonald wasn't selected. Or even-- and it pains me to say it, somehow-- AJ Burnett. Hanrahan's been great, but the Pirates' pitching overall has been surprisingly good, they should have some recognition.
There must have been a huge push at the very end in SF, just 4 days ago both Wright and Braun were in the lead, Wright by over 400k votes.
32.tshipman posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:54 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
David Wright is on the team. If Mets fans wanted him to start so badly, they should have shown up and voted for him.
Also, dWar has gone from dodgy to almost completely useless with the prevalence of shifts.
Maybe fans are smart enough now to ignore BABiP flukes?
33.ShoeGrit posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:55 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Oh come on, Shoewizard. If you give any weight to the current season, you've gotta take Wright over Panda. Especially since the last 162 games for Panda goes all the way back to 2010. It's the way the balloting works, so I'm not calling foul or anything, but it is very frustrating especially given that Wright lead in the voting virtually the entire way.
I think you can also legitimately say WTF about Napoli. He's not having nearly as good a year as Mauer or Weiters, Saltalamacchia or even Pierzynski. By fWAR he's tied with Carlos Santana. He's got 1 WAR. He's gone from woefully underrated to massively overrated over the course of about calendar year.
The numbers I gave are from June 26, 2011 thru June 30 2011, which is approx 162 games for almost every team. Sandoval's OPS since June 26 of last year is higher than Wrights.
It's not that I'm not weighting this year, it's that you are not weighting post all star break last year AT ALL.
As for AL Catcher, since June 26 last year, (again..aprox last 162 games)
Napoli .980
Mauer .834
Avila .819
You are basically looking at first half numbers, and first half bREF WAR lists, which are hugely flawed cuz the fielding is all messed up, and not considering anything that happened before this year.
I'm not sure what your list is intended to prove, beyond that a banjo hitting second baseman for a bad team might be deserving of a slot if you trust some defensive metrics.
It shows that last year's NL starter is now ranked dead last. He's the anti-Dunn.
35.ShoeGrit posted on July 01, 2012 at 02:56 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
It's all a little less weird when you consider that All-Star voting started something like three weeks into the season.
Kinda surprised Francoeur didn't make it. Sure he's not having a very good year, but if the AL wants to win, they could use his clubhouse presence and light antics.
37.Amit posted on July 01, 2012 at 03:01 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Altuve and LaHair were both players' selections, meaning that they either won the players' vote, or more likely, finished 2nd behind Uggla and Votto.
This shows that the voting probably started too early - both LaHair and Altuve got off to great starts, but were later passed by Hill and Goldschmidt. Or that the players just remembered the hot starts and didn't notice what has happened in the last month.
Actually, I was using Fangraphs WAR. And this is the 2012 All Star Game, not the 2011-2012 All Star Game. So you're right that I'm not putting more weight on 2nd half splits that i'm not already using for Proven Stars v. Guys having a hot first half.
eta: My mistake on thinking you were looking at past 162 player games, not last 162 total games.
edited for clarity.
39.ShoeGrit posted on July 01, 2012 at 03:06 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Some more OPS leaders by position.....roughly last 162 games or 365 days
(min 400 PA's)
NL C
Ruiz .893
Molina .866
Montero .813
AL 1b
Encarnacion .895
Konerko .892
Fielder .890*
Pujols .871*
NL 1b
Votto 1.017
Morse .870
Goldschmidt .869
AL 2b
Cano .934
Kinsler .843
Pedroia .823
NL 2b
Uggla .858
Phillips .833
Murphy .788
AL 3b
Cabrera .980
Beltre .968
Longoria .917
NL 3b
Sandoval .931
Wirght .909
Ramirez .894
AL SS
A. Cabrera .809
Jeter .792
Andrus .768
NL SS
Tulowitzki .942
Reyes .787
Lowrie .768
AL OF
Ellsbury .981
Hamilton .958
Bautista .945
Willingham .902
Granderson .875
Trumbo .863
Gordon .851
Murphy .850
Swisher .849
40.ShoeGrit posted on July 01, 2012 at 03:07 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Actually, I was using Fangraphs WAR. And this is the 2012 All Star Game, not the 2011-2012 All Star Game. So you're right that I'm not putting much weight on 2nd half splits.
Dude...the balloting starts in late April !!! Think for a minute.
41.Amit posted on July 01, 2012 at 03:13 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Dude...the balloting starts in late April !!! Think for a minute.
For me, that suggests the "proven all-star" more than the 2nd half of the previous year.
Dude...the balloting starts in late April !!! Think for a minute.
And over half the votes came in over the last week. And even accepting that they didn't, Wright was up 400k over Panda just 5 days ago. Your argument is ignore that Panda has missed a third of the season and is having a much worse year than Wright because he was really hot at the second half of the last season, and that we should think that people are voting for Panda because he was better in the 2nd half of last year than Wright since the voting started in April. The evidence doesn't back that up. What it backs up is that SF fans voted like crazy in the last few days and got a guy who simply isn't on the same level as Wright this year elected starter.
eta: I mean, you can't see why I'm frustrated? As I said, I'm not calling foul. That's the way it is, and it makes for fun arguments like this over player snubs. But I don't think it's objectively the case that Panda should be the starter given the 2nd best player in the NL is at the same position.
43.tshipman posted on July 01, 2012 at 03:14 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
Proven Stars v. Guys having a hot first half.
Yes, but you're arguing for David Wright. Wright's last three years by WAR: 1.9, 2.5, 2.9.
Why shouldn't fans be skeptical of his hot start? In 2010, he hit a .924 OPS in the first half and a .770 OPS in the second half.
Of all the attending SS's, only Cabrera has a higher OPS than Jed Lowrie.
Oh, and ESPN tin-hats note please that the Red Sox have one player.
45.ShoeGrit posted on July 01, 2012 at 03:23 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
I'm not advocating for Sandoval...I'm just pointing out it's not the huge travesty you are making it out to be. And of course #43 above makes the point even clearer.
It all counts. Current year. Last year. History. Offense, defense, context.....there is so much that goes into it. But your arguments are based solely on current first half year performance.
Well, for one, fans usually don't think about splits. For another, while I think Sandoval is a star, I don't think he's in the same category of stardom as Wright, either in the view of the fans or the actual numbers- Wright's at 42 career fWAR. That's on pace to be a surefire HoF player. Since 2010 he's gone 4.0/1.9/4.5 fWAR while Panda's gone 1.8/5.5/1.1 fWAR. Since Pablo's rookie year, cherry picking to make him look as good as possible since otherwise Wright has his monster 7.1 fWAR* season in 2008 included, he's at 13.9 fWAR. Over that same period, Wright's at 14 fWAR. At BEST they come out even on "Proven Star," in reality Pablo is a very good young player and Wright has been a superstar, HoF quality 3B in his first decade.
You're arguing that a guy in the running for MVP should sit for a guy who's only played 44 games because the other guy had an excellent second half last year.
* That's 1.6 WAR higher than Panda's best year, and it's not even close to his best season.
Huh, last I checked Wright had hundreds of thousands of votes over Sandoval. But, whatever. All I care about is RA Dickey starting the game. Make it happen LaRussa!
Yeah, and as I granted, this isn't about the fan vote. It's about the objective choice. You have to cherrypick very carefully to make the argument that the choice of Sandoval over Wright as starter is the objectively correct one. It gets marginally easier, in the literal sense of marginally, if you ignore fangraphs WAR for bref WAR, since Sandoval is then 11.9 bWAR from 2009 on vs. Wright's 11.6. I suppose you could argue that the correct starting choice is solely decided by the guy who's been better over the last 162 games, in which case you might be able to make a colorable case for Sandoval.
49.Tuque posted on July 01, 2012 at 03:45 PM #hit 0 | hit 0
The guys I would have liked to see make it who didn't are Mike Moustakas, Brett Lawrie
How the #### is a third baseman with a 108 OPS+ on pace for a 10-WAR season? What kind of unholy defensive jiu-jitsu is he practicing out there?
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Page 1 of 3 pages
1 2 3 >Reserves:
AL:
C- Joe Mauer, Min
C- Matt Wieters, Bal
1B- Paul Konerko, CWS
2B- Ian Kinsler, Tex
SS- Elvus Andrus, Tex
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle
3B- Miguel Cabrera, Det
OF- Adam Jones, Bal
OF- Mike Trout, LAA
OF- Mark Trumbo, LAA
DH- Adam Dunn, CWS
DH- Billy Butler, KCR
NL
C- Carlos Ruiz, Phi
C- Yadier Molina, StL
1B- Brian LaHair, ChC
2B- Jose Altuve, Hou
SS- Starlin Castro, ChC
SS- Ian Desmond, Was
3B- David Wright, NYM
OF- Jay Bruce, Cin
OF- Carlos Gonzalez, Col
OF- Giancarlo Stanton, Mia
OF- Ryan Braun, Mil
OF- Andrew McCutchen, Pit
Pitchers:
AL:
SP- Matt Harrison, Tex
SP- Felix Hernandez, Sea
SP- Justin Verlander, Det
SP- CC Sabathia, NYY*
SP- CJ Wilson, LAA**
SP- Jered Weaver, LAA
SP- Chris Sale, CWS
SP- David Price, Tam
RP- Joe Nathan, Tex
RP- Ryan Cook, Oak
RP- Jim Johnson, Bal
RP- Chris Perez, Cle
RP- Fernando Rodney, Tam
NL:
SP- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
SP- Gio Gonzalez, Was
SP- Stephen Strasburg, Was
SP- Cole Hamels, Phi
SP- Wade Miley, Ari
SP- RA Dickey, NYM
SP- Matt Cain, SF
RP- Jon Papelbon, Phi
RP- Craig Kimbrel, Atl
RP- Aroldis Chapman, Cin
RP- Lance Lynn, StL
RP- Joel Hanrahan, Pit
RP- Huston Street, SD
* Will Miss ASG with Injury
** Injury Replacement
Rosters at MLB.com: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2012/roster_league.jsp
34th Man:
AL:
RP Jonathan Broxton, KCR
SP Yu Darvish, Tex
RP Ernesto Frieri, LAA
SP Jason Hammel, Bal
SP Jake Peavy, CWS
NL:
OF Michael Bourn, Atl
3B David Freese, Stl
OF Bryce Harper, Was
2B Aaron Hill, Ari
3B Chipper Jones, Atl
Well, they want at least one representative from every team.
And I screwed up Lance Lynn, he's a SP obviously, not a RP.
That explains Cook, but not Perez, Rodney or Johnson. Isn't there a minimum number of relievers they have to take? That's the rule I'd change.
Furcal's having a pretty good season and has had a better career to date than either Lowrie or Desmond. I would have picked Lowrie but I don't see it as a travesty that he's not on the team.
The guys I would have liked to see make it who didn't are Mike Moustakas, Brett Lawrie and Madison Bumgarner.
EDIT: Okay, yeah, Panda over Wright is weird, but San Francisco has a relatively fervid fanbase, and not enough Mets fans are going to games this year, where they would be encouraged to vote for Wright.
I'm more amazed the craptastic Cubs have two players.
Last 162 games..
Best OPS among NL 3b
Sandoval .931
Wright .909
Ramirez .894
It's not like either one is all that good either. LaHair especially is a strange choice. It's like picking Brian Daubach or somebody like that.
50%+ games played at 2B, sorted by WAR
Uggla .858
Phillips .833
Murphy .788
I think that's because it's assigning some huge (unjustifiable) debit to Altuve for his defense.
Similarly, Barney's getting an inappropriate amount of defensive credit.
For single seasons, Playing in the NL, For 2012, Played 50% of games at 3B, sorted by greatest WAR Position Players
Managers prefer to take relievers over starters. There aren't as many restrictions about whether the relievers are allowed to pitch or not, and relievers obviously have more experience pitching out of the bullpen.
2.4 dWAR in less than half a season? Yeah, pardon me if I don't quite buy that. I mean, his defense is probably good, but not 5 wins/season good.
I'm not sure what your list is intended to prove, beyond that a banjo hitting second baseman for a bad team might be deserving of a slot if you trust some defensive metrics.
Not odd if the fans know better than to only consider the first few months of the season when making their all star selections. Ok...I realize it's more about SFO fans ballot stuffing than fan understanding of sample size. (See Cabrera, Melky over Braun)
I think you can also legitimately say WTF about Napoli. He's not having nearly as good a year as Mauer or Weiters, Saltalamacchia or even Pierzynski. By fWAR he's tied with Carlos Santana. He's got 1 WAR. He's gone from woefully underrated to massively overrated over the course of about calendar year.
It is definitely weird that James McDonald wasn't selected. Or even-- and it pains me to say it, somehow-- AJ Burnett. Hanrahan's been great, but the Pirates' pitching overall has been surprisingly good, they should have some recognition.
Also, dWar has gone from dodgy to almost completely useless with the prevalence of shifts.
Maybe fans are smart enough now to ignore BABiP flukes?
The numbers I gave are from June 26, 2011 thru June 30 2011, which is approx 162 games for almost every team. Sandoval's OPS since June 26 of last year is higher than Wrights.
It's not that I'm not weighting this year, it's that you are not weighting post all star break last year AT ALL.
As for AL Catcher, since June 26 last year, (again..aprox last 162 games)
Napoli .980
Mauer .834
Avila .819
You are basically looking at first half numbers, and first half bREF WAR lists, which are hugely flawed cuz the fielding is all messed up, and not considering anything that happened before this year.
It shows that last year's NL starter is now ranked dead last. He's the anti-Dunn.
This...a thousand times this.
This shows that the voting probably started too early - both LaHair and Altuve got off to great starts, but were later passed by Hill and Goldschmidt. Or that the players just remembered the hot starts and didn't notice what has happened in the last month.
Actually, I was using Fangraphs WAR. And this is the 2012 All Star Game, not the 2011-2012 All Star Game. So you're right that I'm not putting more weight on 2nd half splits that i'm not already using for Proven Stars v. Guys having a hot first half.
eta: My mistake on thinking you were looking at past 162 player games, not last 162 total games.
edited for clarity.
(min 400 PA's)
NL C
Ruiz .893
Molina .866
Montero .813
AL 1b
Encarnacion .895
Konerko .892
Fielder .890*
Pujols .871*
NL 1b
Votto 1.017
Morse .870
Goldschmidt .869
AL 2b
Cano .934
Kinsler .843
Pedroia .823
NL 2b
Uggla .858
Phillips .833
Murphy .788
AL 3b
Cabrera .980
Beltre .968
Longoria .917
NL 3b
Sandoval .931
Wirght .909
Ramirez .894
AL SS
A. Cabrera .809
Jeter .792
Andrus .768
NL SS
Tulowitzki .942
Reyes .787
Lowrie .768
AL OF
Ellsbury .981
Hamilton .958
Bautista .945
Willingham .902
Granderson .875
Trumbo .863
Gordon .851
Murphy .850
Swisher .849
NL OF
Braun 1.028
C. Gonzalez 1.007
Kemp .998
Beltran .970
Stanton .915
Fowler .896
McCutcheon .887
Melky Cabrera .887 *
Holliday .871
DH
Ortiz .972
Butler .837
Dude...the balloting starts in late April !!! Think for a minute.
And over half the votes came in over the last week. And even accepting that they didn't, Wright was up 400k over Panda just 5 days ago. Your argument is ignore that Panda has missed a third of the season and is having a much worse year than Wright because he was really hot at the second half of the last season, and that we should think that people are voting for Panda because he was better in the 2nd half of last year than Wright since the voting started in April. The evidence doesn't back that up. What it backs up is that SF fans voted like crazy in the last few days and got a guy who simply isn't on the same level as Wright this year elected starter.
eta: I mean, you can't see why I'm frustrated? As I said, I'm not calling foul. That's the way it is, and it makes for fun arguments like this over player snubs. But I don't think it's objectively the case that Panda should be the starter given the 2nd best player in the NL is at the same position.
Yes, but you're arguing for David Wright. Wright's last three years by WAR: 1.9, 2.5, 2.9.
Why shouldn't fans be skeptical of his hot start? In 2010, he hit a .924 OPS in the first half and a .770 OPS in the second half.
Oh, and ESPN tin-hats note please that the Red Sox have one player.
It all counts. Current year. Last year. History. Offense, defense, context.....there is so much that goes into it. But your arguments are based solely on current first half year performance.
Also, you read my post #28 , right ?
You're arguing that a guy in the running for MVP should sit for a guy who's only played 44 games because the other guy had an excellent second half last year.
* That's 1.6 WAR higher than Panda's best year, and it's not even close to his best season.
Yeah, and as I granted, this isn't about the fan vote. It's about the objective choice. You have to cherrypick very carefully to make the argument that the choice of Sandoval over Wright as starter is the objectively correct one. It gets marginally easier, in the literal sense of marginally, if you ignore fangraphs WAR for bref WAR, since Sandoval is then 11.9 bWAR from 2009 on vs. Wright's 11.6. I suppose you could argue that the correct starting choice is solely decided by the guy who's been better over the last 162 games, in which case you might be able to make a colorable case for Sandoval.
How the #### is a third baseman with a 108 OPS+ on pace for a 10-WAR season? What kind of unholy defensive jiu-jitsu is he practicing out there?
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