BBTF.org/m/angels : Josh Hamilton reportedly has a five-year deal with the Angels

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Mike Trout hits for the cycle in Angels’ 12-0 win over Seattle

(www.latimes.com)

posted 3 days ago by Repoz to angels | 43 comment(s)

No Frownland here…

The Angels broke out the disco ball in the clubhouse, and why not? That was quite a party.

Mike Trout, the guest of honor, became the youngest player in American League history to hit for the cycle. Josh Hamilton, the birthday boy, enjoyed two rounds of serenades from the crowd. The Angels posted their most lopsided victory of the season, a 12-0 rout of the Seattle Mariners.

The fans even went home with party favors — Mike Trout pint glasses, in honor of a player of ...

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 3 pages 1 2 3 >

1. Tripon posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:33 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Rangers are fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked.

2. JJ1986 posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:35 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Rangers are fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked.

Michael Bourn is probably happy, though.

3. Davo Mastroianni posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Michael Bourn is probably happy, though.

For some reason, I see the music stopping and Bourn without a chair. Like, a 1-year deal, try his luck again next year.

4. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

That's a great pickup for the Angels.

5. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

5/125 apparently. (ESPN Dallas, via MLBTR of course.)

That's more than I'd want to pay for Hamilton. Not by tons, but by a couple million per season.

6. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:41 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Huh. I don't watch many Angels games, but it looks like their usual OF configuration last year was Trumbo-Trout-Torii, so Josh could slide right into the Torii hole. Makes sense. I'm curious, Angels fans, what seemed to be their plan for RF before this signing?

7. asinwreck posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Michael Bourn is probably happy, though.

Unless this makes Peter Bourjos a trade chit.

8. Davo Mastroianni posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I for one thought he was going to get a lot more money, and at least 6 years.

Very surprised.

9. JJ1986 posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Angels fans, what seemed to be their plan for RF before this signing?

I would guess Trout in RF and Bourjos in CF.

10. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:43 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The average guess in the free agent contest was $140M total.

11. sistercristian guzman posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:44 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

At this rate I'll never be able to keep track of which irresponsible spendthrift team is ruining baseball.

12. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:44 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

That's more than I'd want to pay for Hamilton. Not by tons, but by a couple million per season.

So basically it's a good deal? If their choices were to have the Rangers sign him for $23M/year or they sign him for $25M/year I can see why they'd choose the latter option. This seems like a good deal for the Angels if you ask me. Using Swartz's numbers he just has to be a 4 WAR player for this to be a market value deal, and even if it were higher than a market value deal, it could still be good because the Angels can now trade Bourjos or Trumbo for a pitcher, in addition to signing Sanchez/Jackson/Lohse/Marcum.

13. JoeHova posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:45 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Seems a bit surprising. I think it's a pretty good move for the Angels. It also means that the Angels have the two most recent guys who have been called the next Mickey Mantle.

14. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:45 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Great Los Angeles Payroll Dick Measuring Contest of 2012.

15. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:47 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Using Swartz's numbers he just has to be a 4 WAR player for this to be a market value deal, and even if it were higher than a market value deal, it could still be good because the Angels can now trade Bourjos or Trumbo for a pitcher, in addition to signing Sanchez/Jackson/Lohse/Marcum.

What are Swartz's numbers?

My back of the envelope calculation is $5.5M per win with 5% inflation, projecting future WAR by a very simple 0.5 per season decline. That would mean Hamilton needs to project as a 5 WAR player to be worth this contract.

I'm not, like, railing against this contract for the Angels. I think it's basically market value plus a small but notable premium. The determinative question with Hamilton is health (physical and mental), and we really won't know whether this was a good bet until after he's been playing, or not playing, for a couple seasons.

16. Tim D posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:49 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I had the feeling the market was too low for Hamilton and that somebody would swoop in. Good pick up for the Halos, takes some thunder back from the Dodgers. I'd guess they would go Hamilton/Bourjos/Trout left to right and dangle Trumbo, but it's just a guess. Bourjos might bring more in trade.

17. Shredder posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:49 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I would guess Trout in RF and Bourjos in CF.

I would have guessed Trout in left and Trumbo in right.

I'm actually not all that jazzed by this. Probably has something to do with Hamilton's past. Maybe the fact that it wasn't a position of need. Maybe it's because my dad died a month ago and I have no one to call and talk to about this. Gonna be a heck of a middle of the lineup this year though. If they can score a ton of runs, it looks like the bullpen may be able to actually finish games this year.

Notice as well that the deal ends just as Trout hits free agency, assuming he's not locked up before that. Or more likely they structure his deal so that the dollars go way up in 2018.

18. Rough Carrigan

posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I wonder if they felt pushed to do this by all the Dodgers' spending.

19. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Wouldn't you keep Trout in CF? Trumbo in left, Hamilton in right, Trout in CF and Vernon Wells to Knottsberry Farm.

20. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:56 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Angels fans love Peter Bourjos.

21. charityslave is thinking about baseball posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If the A's or M's win the division this year, that would be tremendous.

22. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Damn, is Los Angeles just made of money these days?

EDIT: The city, not the team. Cokes all around

23. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Angels fans love Peter Bourjos.

He should still see a lot of playing time, I'd think, as the 4th outfielder.

24. Shredder posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Angels fans love Peter Bourjos.

I don't think any of us are really wedded to the idea of Bourjos playing everyday. But if he IS going to play every day, it should be in center.

25. JJ1986 posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:58 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If the A's or M's win the division this year, that would be tremendous.

or the Astros.

26. Bitter Calculus Instructor posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Wow. I was expecting $170 mil guaranteed at least. Then again, it's only five years, but the average is still about $2m less than I thought it would be. Good deal for the Angels.

27. Gamingboy posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

WHAT!?! WHAT!?!?! WHAT!?!?!! WHAT!?!?!?!
WHAT!?!?! WHAT!?!?! WHAT!?!?! WHAT!?!?!?!?!

28. dave h posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

MCoA, how do you deal with contract length? My understanding is that the $/win calculations ignore that premium players are compensated with longer contracts. Since Hamilton is a premium player (at least in this market) but isn't getting as long a deal as some, that has a particularly large impact.

29. Swedish Chef posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This is a bargain far under market value, in the LA market that is. It's a pretty reasonable deal if you also compare with wages in other, poorer cities.

30. Tim D posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:01 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Astros might not win 50 next year.

31. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:03 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

MCoA, how do you deal with contract length? My understanding is that the $/win calculations ignore that premium players are compensated with longer contracts.

I may not understand your question, but the back-of-the-envelope method deals with contract length by projecting rough 5% salary inflation and rough five-run-per-season player decline.

32. YR Misses Reggie Bars posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:05 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

At this rate I'll never be able to keep track of which irresponsible spendthrift team is ruining baseball.

It's the one who wins the most games.

33. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Astros might not win 50 next year.

The man they're paying more next year than any two other players put together, Wandy Rodriguez, might have something to say about ... never mind.

34. NattyBoh posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Astros might not win 50 next year.

Where is Astro Boy when you need him?

35. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I am okay with this.

36. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Angels fans love Peter Bourjos.

You would expect a Los Angeles team to have a lot of fans among the bourjosie.

37. dave h posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

MCoA, what I'm getting at is that if you just take the total number of wins provided by free agents, and divide by their total compensation, then you assume that $/wins is linear with wins. It appears to be true if you look at annual value, but it breaks down because premium players sign very long contracts. I understand why people ignore that (it's not an easy problem to solve) but this seems like a case where it could cause a lot of error. If the $/win this year is higher, but the discount for later years should be larger, then a 5-year deal for a premium player is going to be much better in reality than your calculation.

38. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Rangers are fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked.

Am I way off thinking that the Rangers could spend that money on Swisher and Anibal Sanchez and be in a better position than if they brought back Hamilton?

39. AROM posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:18 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Michael Bourn is probably happy, though.

Not sure I'd want to be Bourn. Right now any team he meets with that needs a speedy CF will be weighing Bourn's salary demands against the trade demands from a team with an extra speedy OF whose name also starts with Bour.

40. Gamingboy posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Wash, how hard will it be to win the AL West next year?

"It'll be incredibly hard."

41. Tippecanoe posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:22 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Apparently the Angels have decided that it is an annual event to sign a 32-year-old slugging former MVP for $25M/yr.

42. dlf posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:24 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Maybe it's because my dad died a month ago and I have no one to call and talk to about this ...

My deepest sympathies Shredder.

43. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

dave -

If the Angels are paying a "premium in years", then that can show up in the Angels overpaying in year 4 in my method.

Now, it is possible that in general, recent $$/win calculations have come out a little bit too low, because they haven't accounted for the premium player / contract length issue. That would be a problem that would apply equally to Josh Hamilton and Koji Uehara.

It seems to me that you're arguing that this is a problem that applies specifically to the Hamilton contract, and I don't believe that logic follows.

44. Fred Garvin is dead and Joe Biden is alive posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:28 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

That's a helluva lot for a guy who probably won't play much more than 120 games/yr.

45. Mayor Blomberg posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:31 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Matt, using your numbers, if he averages 4 WAR/season (one definition of a 4-WAR player: over the course of the deal) I get $121.5M value.

46. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:34 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Its a bad day to be an atheist.

47. DL from MN posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:34 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Good thing for Bourn is his two most likely suitors - Seattle and Texas - are also two of the least likely places for Bourjos to land.

48. Jeff Frances the Mute posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Seems like a solid signing although it may not be as big of an upgrade from last year as it might seem:

2012 BB-Ref WAR
Hamilton: 3.4
Hunter: 5.5

49. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:43 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Matt, using your numbers, if he averages 4 WAR/season (one definition of a 4-WAR player: over the course of the deal) I get $121.5M value.

Oh, gotcha. Yes, if Hamilton averages 4 WAR per season, he's roughly worth the contract, assuming normal inflation.

50. depletion posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:46 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Maybe it's because my dad died a month ago and I have no one to call and talk to about this.

Sorry to read that, Shredder. Well, you still have us anyway for baseball chats :)

Page 1 of 3 pages 1 2 3 >

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

/m/angels

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Mike Trout hits for the cycle in Angels’ 12-0 win over Seattle

Reader Comments and Retorts

Angels Think Factory