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It's nearly unprecedented for a player of Albert's caliber or class to decline this badly
157 OPS+ isn't a dead-cat anything. You're talking about a 7-win season.
his foot is in the second best shape of its life!
In my head I always thought his collapse cost him his shot, but really he needed better than a non-collapse; he needed to perform pretty darn well through his mid-30s to be in range.
a normal decline phase and he is at 65 war probably
You're risking a patient's foot!
Playing the realism game with House is fraught with danger, of course. After the first couple of seasons, that crew had to be the worst set of doctors in the history of television.
Murphy plus the average of his comps after age 31 doesn't look like an HOFer, really: 54 WAR, 450 HR, 2274 hits, 1383 RBI.
You're right that those aren't overwhelming numbers, but 450 HR (in a pitcher's era) + two MVPs + center field Gold Gloves + universal belovedness still = easy induction, IMO.
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