I like that J.D. comps to the guy right above him.

Altuve looks like a kind-of-useful guy to have on a major league roster. And, uh ... Jed Lowrie could be decent if a) his defense isn't terrible, and b) he doesn't get too terribly injured.

Every time I read projections like these, I'm amazed at how far Brett Wallace's value has dropped. I remember when he was drafted and the book on him was that he would hit. Now it looks like he's more of a league-average bat with no other secondary skills.

I had no idea Bud Norris was so old. I thought he was 24 or so.

2011 Outfielder defense per BBREF WAR:

1 Brett Gardner 34
2 Carlos Lee 21
3 Mike Stanton 20
4 Kosuke Fukudome 19
5 Chris Young 18
6 Rick Ankiel 17
7 Chris Denorfia 15
8 Denard Span 14
9 Carlos Gomez 14
10 Michael Bourn 13
11 Peter Bourjos 13

FWIW Fangraphs also has Lee as a plus defender in 2011

Is that even physically possible?

Juan Abreu is listed twice with two different sets of numbers - 4.10 ERA and 5.20 ERA.

Is that even physically possible?

I'd have to guess he got a skewed distribution of chances. Lot's of easy plays that look hard when zoned, either b/c of location, velocity (difference btw a fly/fliner/liner) or his slowness made easy plays look harder.

Yuck.

What order are we going in anyway?

What order are we going in anyway?

Reverse of last year, I believe.

What order are we going in anyway?

It looks like 2010 payroll descending.

Every time I read projections like these, I'm amazed at how far Brett Wallace's value has dropped. I remember when he was drafted and the book on him was that he would hit. Now it looks like he's more of a league-average bat with no other secondary skills.

He was teammates with Ike Davis for 3 years
He outhit Ike EVERY single year- his WORST year had him OPS higher than Ike's college career, Brett's college OPS was 1197, Ike's was 1015- same team same years

Ike was a 1B, Brett was a 3B...
Brett was drafted 13th overall, Ike 18th (And a recall hearing that was a reach)

Brett hit .337/.427/.530 his first pro season at age 21- between the midwest league and AA
Ike hit .256/.326/.326 his first pro season at age 21- in the New York Penn league

Ike reached #62 on BA's prospect list, Brett #27

and now Ike projects to 113, and Brett 97.
Basically after that age 21 year Ike has outplayed Brett in very possible way (except in staying healthy)

How does that happen?

1: Defense/Athleticism, Ike was always a better athlete/fielder- Brett played 3B when Ike played 1B simply because Ike throws left and hence CAN'T play any other IF position*- but in truth he always had better hands, better range than Wallace- who was never going to play 3B in the majors

2: Hitting: I think before age 22, Wallace really was a better hitter, and this is simply a case where Ike improved through ages 22 and 23 and Wallace basically didn't - I don't think there is anyway to predict/project that reliably.


*There were times back in the 1980s, where if the Mets had Keith Hernandez play 3rd, he would have played it better than whoever Davey Johnson was running out there... Ike is not THAT good, but he's got a clear defensive tool separation advantage on Wallace...

That's what I thought originally (payroll) but I didn't think the Twins would be that high ... ?

If I'm reading these numbers correctly, ZiPS projects no Houston position players to be league average talent (off + def) in 2012. Nifty...

Wow, so 2 barely above average starters and maybe 1-2 above average position players. This team is horrific.

Every time I read projections like these, I'm amazed at how far Brett Wallace's value has dropped.

Probably a red flag that he was dealt three times before he even reached the big leagues. It was a game of Hot Potato, and Ed Wade lost.

Third highest OPS is a second baseman born in 1990? That guy must be a star in the making.

Wow, his minor league numbers say so. .389 / .426 / .591 in 391 PA, with 24 steals and only 40 strikeouts. And only 60% of that was with the Lancaster JetHawks!

Is it me or do the Astros and Twins look alot alike?

maybe 1-2 above average position players.

Not when you add in defense.

That second baseman is easy to root for - he's 5-5 which caused him not to make a lot of prospect lists going into last season.

Request for Brian Bixler, please.

Probably a red flag that he was dealt three times before he even reached the big leagues.

Ahh yes, the Andy Marte Rule.

Wow, so 2 barely above average starters and maybe 1-2 above average position players. This team is horrific.

Where are you seeing the 2 position players? Altuve, if his D is avg or better, and you ignore his height, and...

Jed "Glassman" Lowrie?

Calling this team horrific is an insult to horrific teams. They were horrific when they had Pence and Bourn. No it's a freak show.

Edit: Coke to Der K 2

Gio Gonzalez was traded three times before he reached the big leagues, and he seems to be doing OK.

Some questions about Jose Altuve
1) Would a major league manager really allow him to go 33/21 in SB/CS?
2) He hit .389 in A+/AA in 391 PA as 21yo last year, with 26/40 K/BB ratio. What are the odds that he really takes a leap forward this year? Or does the 5/29 K/BB ratio in the majors just out weight all those minor league numbers?

That bad a projection for Bogusevic surprises me. It's not like I expect him to have anything close to the 122 OPS+ last season, but I thought maybe he could be an average hitter.

If the Astros trade Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers for prospects, the rotation will be really ugly.

John Sickels seems to think Altuve's for real and that only his tiny size holds most people back as the rest of his skills/performance are astounding. He could be Pedroia 2.0 for this colossally awful team. I'm just curious why he's projected to get gunned down stealing so much 33/54 for a 61% success rate is ARFul and a little surprising since Sickels touts him as "a good athlete, with average speed but terrific instincts on the bases." Is that the worst success rate for a player with that many chances in the ZiPS thus far?

Some questions about Jose Altuve
1) Would a major league manager really allow him to go 33/21 in SB/CS?
2) He hit .389 in A+/AA in 391 PA as 21yo last year, with 26/40 K/BB ratio. What are the odds that he really takes a leap forward this year? Or does the 5/29 K/BB ratio in the majors just out weight all those minor league numbers?

I think if you're playing in MLB at 5'5", you're going to have to show you can do some damage to a fastball down the middle of the plate before you start getting walks.

He needs to generate at least 7-10 HR/triples, and 20 or so doubles to keep them honest. If the .060 ISO from last year persists, he's not going to make it.

The Astros signed Travis Buck to a NRI. Just out of curiosity, how does he project?

The extra Juan Abreu has been eliminated - the first projection was an error because I copied and pasted a line above Juan Abreu and not his 2011 and I must not have overwritten it.

I am irrationally high on Bud Norris and Matt Downs.

ZiPS has always been kinda down on Wallace for awhile.

2009 projection: 275/333/424
Rest of Year 2009 (after trade): 264/323/392
2010 projection: 246/314/385
2011 projection: 261/324/414

ZiPS never really saw Wallace becoming a good hitter at a position he could play and so far, it hasn't been wrong.

So, can this team take a run at the 1962 Mets?

I think they'd have to get rid of Wandy and Myers (otherwise the SP is too cromulent), but that should be coming soon.

Before the Latos trade, the Louisville Bats might've had a better offense than this group.

That bad a projection for Bogusevic surprises me. It's not like I expect him to have anything close to the 122 OPS+ last season, but I thought maybe he could be an average hitter.

3 years in AAA, not once did he reach league average, 1410 AAA PAs, and I'm guessing his mles work out to a 60-70 OPS+
against that you have 213 MLB PAs at a 111 OPS+ (most during his age 27 season), it may have helped a little that he was literally never allowed to bat against lefties...

So, can this team take a run at the 1962 Mets?

The most obvious comparison is the 2003 Tigers.

The 2002 Tigers went 55-106. Then they got rid of their 2002 All-Star (Robert Fick, of all people) thinking that Dmitri Young could play left field and Dean Palmer was healthy enough to DH every day. They got rid of recent All-Star Damion Easley and replaced him with recent near-ROY Warren Morris. They gave the exciting prospect Eric Munson the 3B job and the not-even-close-to-ready Omar Infante the SS job. They got rid of their #1 starter (Mark Redman), after already trading their other two proven starters (Jeff Weaver and Brian Moehler) mid-season.

The starting rotation (Maroth, Bonderman, Cornejo, Bernero, Knotts) had a total of 56 career starts as of Opening Day, and only Bonderman and Cornejo were any sort of prospect.

And they did take a run at the 1962 Mets.

The Astros lineup looks a lot like that Tigers ilneup, with Carlos Lee playing the role of Dmitri Young, and no obvious Bobby Higginson in sight. But the rotation, that's a little better.

Let the J.A. Happ 20-loss watch commence!

Carlos Lee reminds me of the old woman in Dolores Claiborne (not the Kathy Bates character; the woman she Kevorkian'ed) -- "I'm tired, I just wanna be done." Bad as that line is - I'll take the under.

#17 and #19, yeah, I was thinking Altuve @ 98 OPS+ and Average or better D being above average for a 2b, and Lowrie being possibly above average if he's healthy. It's downright dire.

Brian Bixler is with the Astros now, too. Can we get a projection for him, please?

Jordan Schafer... man, he dropped off the planet. His #1 comp is Maiko Loyola, who I had to look up - a guy who never played above A ball (and I was really hoping that I'd somehow just missed a guy named Maiko Loyola playing in the bigs).

Marwin Gonzalez -- awesome. Might I suggest his comps should be Marvel Wynne, Wonderful Monds and Darwin Barney?

3 years in AAA, not once did he reach league average, 1410 AAA PAs, and I'm guessing his mles work out to a 60-70 OPS+

Bogusevic's career path in the minors isn't exactly normal. That might change some of the interpretation--or maybe not. Bogusevic was picked in the first round as a pitcher and worked his way up to AA as a starting pitcher. The Astros then changed his position to outfield, and his first couple of minor league seasons had to be a big transition, since he hadn't batted as a position player since he was in college. The Astros pushed him to AAA rather quickly because of his late age. If his performance is based on the typical 27 year old minor league outfielder, that may not fit, since his late age for AAA is due to the career change. I would like to see Bogusevic succeed at least as a platoon RFer because it's fun to watch him throw out runners.

Brian Bixler is with the Astros now, too.

Bixler was removed from the 40 man roster when the Astros traded for Lowrie.

Not to be picky, but it's the "AL West bound" Astros, not NL West bound.

Is it bo-GOO-seh-vich or BO-goo-SEH-vich?

They gave the exciting prospect Eric Munson the 3B job

You must have a different definition of "exciting prospect" than me, while formerly a first round pick he'd already dropped off of BA's lists 2 year before, I think it was more the 2003 Tigers saying, oh well we have some guys at Toledo who are not terrible, Munson, Monroe, Infante, lets pay them league minimum and throw them against the wall, we're gonna loss 100 again anyway...

That Bogusevic projection is bogus!

Is it bo-GOO-seh-vich or BO-goo-SEH-vich?

boe-guh-SEV-ic

Yikes! Who's the All-Star from this team? Altuve I guess.

I think the correct term to describe the Astros' roster is "barren wasteland."

I'm pretty surprised that Altuve projects so well, given that his minor-league numbers were mostly in high-octane environments and relied in decent part on sky-high BABIPs. I'm also surprised that Wandy projects so poorly, considering that he's been at least 0.29 below that ERA in each of the last four seasons. I suppose it's a combination of age and a concerning FIP last season.

Yikes! Who's the All-Star from this team? Altuve I guess.

Or some reliever lucks into 25 innings of goodness or Wandy is Wandy.

Hey Dan, what does ZiPS think of Mark Melancon in Boston (since he slipped through the cracks)?

W/o doing the research, this is the worst collection of position players in the last 30 years. While those '03 Tigers were terrible, a number of those position players were up-and-coming & had solid careers (Carlos Pena, Brandon Inge, Omar Infante, etc). It's possible that none of the 2012 Astros are in the MLB in 2015, although I expect Jason Castro to be the below average catcher for awhile.

Some of the Devil Rays lineups back in the Damian Rolls era were absolutely filled with young guys who would never accomplish anything. But they also had Carl Crawford starting in 2002, and veterans like Fred McGriff and Greg Vaughn and Gerald Williams and Vinny Castilla before then.

The 2002 lineup was absolutely awful before Crawford was called up in mid-July, but it did include Randy Winn. On the occasions that Winn didn't start, it was

C Toby Hall or John Flaherty
1B Steve Cox
2B Brent Abernathy
3B Jared Sandberg or Russ Johnson
SS Chris Gomez
LF Jason Tyner
CF Jason Conti
RF Ben Grieve
DH Greg Vaughn

Those projections read like an excerpt from the Necronomicon...