A little old, but I finally have time today to do this stuff. (h/t Roberto)
• Title: “Wonderful Ignorance”; subtitle: “The Past Is Always Going To Be With Us”
• Bill discusses SABR’s beginnings. It was smaller, allowing for more personal interaction, and more populated by “eccentrics”. He reminds us that founder Bob Davids was reluctant to publish more than one article every two years about statistical analysis in the SABR Journal. He says that of SABR’s 70 members at the time, only himself, ...
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1 2 3 4 >My hockey knowledge is very limited, but my memory is that the playing surfaces used be different sizes, but now they're all standardized. Is that right? If so, when did the changeover occur?
Heh. That's actually pretty good.
During the most recent lockout, a number of NHL players went to the KHL (the top Russian league -- roughly equivalent to baseball in Japan) and it was interesting to see how some stars simply weren't that good on the Russian rink under Russian rules.
Even if this is your stance, having equal dimensions at all parks isn't going to solve this. You'd still have balls hit in places like Seattle, San Diego, and San Francisco that would die in the cool, damp air that would have been home runs at other parks with drier air. And there are surely other effects from weather and from other things beyond weather that you'd never be able to control for. What's the point of getting rid of the uniqueness of parks if you still have massive park effects and the "same fly ball" can be an out or a HR at different parks?
On the LOOGY question: I suspect he's right but I suspect it's closer than he thinks. First, there aren't that many spots where it's easy to platoon -- it's mainly 1B/DH/LF/RF. You can still platoon at those spots pretty easily if you need to. But there's not a big supply of LHB for the IF and C.
The main advantage of the offensive platoon over the defensive platoon is that you platoon against the starting pitcher moreso than the relief pitcher and thereby get more PA. But if you platoon Granderson (for example), your RHB gets maybe 200 PA against a LHP but most of those are low-leverage PAs the first 3 times through the order.
Anyway, platoon pitching came along in part to combat the quite successful offensive platooning of the 70s and 80s. It's gone too far probably -- there's certainly no point in carrying 3 lefties who are relatively ineffective against RHB -- but you probably can't do much more than add one lefty masher. What teams should probably do though is stop carrying the 60 game, 40 IP LHP -- they've got to soak up some garbage time and be at least 80/60.
Even if this is your stance, having equal dimensions at all parks isn't going to solve this. You'd still have balls hit in places like Seattle, San Diego, and San Francisco that would die in the cool, damp air that would have been home runs at other parks with drier air. And there are surely other effects from weather and from other things beyond weather that you'd never be able to control for. What's the point of getting rid of the uniqueness of parks if you still have massive park effects and the "same fly ball" can be an out or a HR at different parks?
I'm never very convinced with the 'we can't fix it 100% so why bother at all' arguments. The strike zone is the same, the mount height is the same, the distance between bases is the same. It's supposed to be the same game wherever you go. Having a few parks with a little league depth fences, one with a giant wall, one with a stupid hill, etc., just make the outcome more arbitrary than it needs to be.
Rk Tm Year #Matching 1 SFG 2004 69 Ind. Games 2 SFG 2012 52 Ind. Games 3 STL 2009 51 Ind. Games 4 NYY 2012 49 Ind. Games 5 COL 2010 48 Ind. Games 6 TBR 2009 47 Ind. Games 7 CLE 1997 47 Ind. Games 8 STL 2005 46 Ind. Games 9 FLA 2011 46 Ind. Games 10 NYM 2008 44 Ind. GamesRk Tm Year #Matching 1 NYY 2012 88 Ind. Games 2 SFG 2004 84 Ind. Games 3 COL 2010 81 Ind. Games 4 STL 2009 79 Ind. Games 5 SFG 2012 73 Ind. Games 6 STL 2005 72 Ind. Games 7 STL 2004 71 Ind. Games 8 TBR 2009 70 Ind. Games 9 TEX 2002 69 Ind. Games 10 CLE 1997 68 Ind. GamesWhat does he mean by that?
Pull the other one.
This sounds like a bunch of yarn.
In all discussions on any topic, whether here and elsewhere, it's like a participant is held to have to know his ultimate position on an issue before the discussion is had--and he's not allowed to later qualify or modify it. If the participant displays any uncertainty that is taken as self-defeating. You got to know the answer before you do the figuring. Moreover, there are implicit strictures, even taboos, that have to do much more with norms and social mores than with reasoned analysis--discussions tend to break down over a how dare you say that, you're on the side of the Nazis or the babykillers, etc. That suggests to me, tentatively, that debate and argument is not about intellectual discovery so much as it is about jockeying for safe and comfortable position in a social pecking order.
Thinking about it. This one might get traded.
Done.
Ppft. If that's true why be so tentative about it!
I'm not a huge believer in the adversarial system of accumulating knowledge. I'm much more inclined to trust someone who presents a range of perspectives, some of which may contradict his/her ultimate argument, than someone who is absolutely sure of their opinion and only sees confirmation in everything around them.
Of course, that approach doesn't really work as well when people are debating what 2+2 equals, but in the humanities I find it a good rule of thumb in general.
EDIT:
Or to quote the great Joel Plaskett
Are you with me or are you leavin?
Are you argumentative?
You all want some true believin'
Why'd you act so tentative?
That he's not interested in purported baseball books in which the author, not baseball, is the subject?
If James is wrong, and I don't know that he is, it would be because you'd be bringing in your lefty particularly against guys who crunch righties but can't hit lefties at all. The advantage you get against the 200 hitters James mentions that the lefty faces isn't going to be the average platoon difference in the majors, but the difference for guys who are particularly susceptible to failing versus LHP.
That's his problem, right there. You're not always or even often bringing in your lefty specialist to face hitters who have "typical" platoon splits.
Why? I find the differences between parks charming, adding interest to the game as played, and to the history of the game.
I think that's the difference. I don't see it as making the outcome arbitary, but rather more interesting, and requiring more skill from the players. LF in Boston versus CF in Detroit for example.
@17: Yup. And for some reason a perfect example comes to mind.
Man, talk about a self-centered and precious comment. There are times when James sounds like the tiredest old fart on Earth.
Not to mention that My Baseball Diary is a terrific book. He should just admit that he hadn't read it and leave it at that.
It seems to me that most advancement is through a adversarial system, whether that be science, applied science, lit and art, as well as philosophy and other scholarly pursuits. The game of baseball is adversarial, I believe. If it weren't, few would be interested, and there would be little change or adaptation.
Well, MLS (historically) had to make do with whatever size field the football/baseball stadium could handle without causing major problems for getting it ready for football/baseball again. When the World Cup was in the US, many of the football stadiums weren't big enough to hold a World Cup sized field and special measures had to be taken. Sometimes rows of seats were lost as they brought in a raised platform and put sod on top of that.
A number of MLS teams now have their own stadiums but I'm not sure if they've all gotten international size fields when they did. I assume the ones that have hosted US qualifiers have full-sized fields.
When the Rapids built their stadium they made a point of making it the maximum allowable size, which I believe is 120 x 75 yds., figuring that it would maximize their advantage being accustomed to playing at altitude. But the World Cup qualifier next month is at the Broncos stadium.
Of course My Baseball Diary is "about baseball" from the first page to the last. Perhaps Farrell's next "whatever" critic will actually have read the book before dismissing it.
What's old fartish about James's stupid comment isn't his preference for one genre over another. It's that the smallminded tone of his complaint makes him sound more like Murray Chass talking about sabermetrics than the Bill James of the Historic Abstracts.
With DMB I've been playing a 162-game season against a league of computer managers and have been toying around with:
1. Putting a RH reliever on the mound and when I bring in the LH reliever, stashing the RH reliever at 1B or in RF and swapping the two batter by batter. Yes, I think this is overkill and would never really advocate it for a real team, but it's something I've been experimenting with.
I do generally agree with James that managers platoon with their relievers far too often. You shouldn't need fourteen relievers to get through the 7th inning. This is probably also one reason why relievers' stats are on average better than starters'.
2. I don't use a closer and have no set roles for relievers. I try to use my better ones in any 'high' leverage situation from the 5th through the 9th depending on situation and rest.
3. I don't have a set rotation. My 1-3 starters tend to pitch every turn but I have no set 4-5 slots. Also, all of my starters will relieve if they are rested and the situation calls for it. Even sometimes if they are not rested but I need a batter out of them.
4. I have only 11 pitchers on my active roster.
5. I platoon with my lineup heavily, and will pinch hit for my non 3-5 hitters at any time in the game if there are men on base and I can get a better hitter or platoon situation. I tend to run through most of my offensive players in a game. I will absolutely pinch hit for the pitcher in the early innings with men in scoring position or bases loaded.
1. Putting a RH reliever on the mound and when I bring in the LH reliever, stashing the RH reliever at 1B or in RF and swapping the two batter by batter. Yes, I think this is overkill and would never really advocate it for a real team, but it's something I've been experimenting with.
How does this comply with MLB rule 3.03? (Who are the "two" you mean? LHRP and RHRP or RHRP and 1B/RF?)
Whether I or James has read the book that you love is beside the point. Someone described it as a "baseball memoir". Forgive him for not assuming that it transcends the genre, will you? Baseball memoirs are awful. You're right--I haven't read this particular one, and perhaps it's exceptional, but it's hardly old fartish to say to someone who asks if you have read a book that he identifies as belonging to a terrible genre "I don't like that genre." Because that genre, on average, is like the worst thing ever. Bill Simmons at 400+ pages, which...puke
Bill Simmons ought to know whether the characterization is correct, or if he doesn't know, shouldn't pretend like he does know. He could say: "I don't know about that book in particular, but I find most baseball memoirs rather uncompelling...etc."
Otherwise I don't see how it rises above the level of "Billy Beane should never have written that book."
You mean Bill James, not Bill Simmons, but otherwise your point is spot on.
A) It wouldn't make that much difference to the calculation. There aren't that many hits at stake.
B) If you're platooning you can get the Lowenstein out of there (Lowenstein rarely faced a lefty under Weaver) and your lefty has to stay and face the batter. A lot of the loogies have butt-ugly splits against righties.
Now one member of the platoon has to take platoon busting from time to time. With Roenickstein it was (generally) Roenicke (In other words, if Lowenstein started and a lefty was brought into the game, generally Weaver reacted by bringing in Roenicke but he didn't always lift Roenicke if the manager switched to a RHP) while with Mullinorg, it was basically react once and that's it (So if Mulliniks started and the other team brought in a lefty Iorg would normally come into the game and finish it. Reverse applied if Iorg started)
With today's smaller benches, a manager often has limited options, but that's the point that James (and others) have been making for some time. Managers are choosing to accept that they can't pinch-hit at will.
Hah! I'm a moderator for the mailing list/forum and definitely know about the discussion he's talking about.
He originally said that Altuve should be the first player selected by keeper teams among the "crossovers" (NL players moving to the AL in the off-season), ahead of Dickey, Buerhle, Reyes, Johnson, etc.
His explanation:
Well, I was just going by the Bill James projection for this 22 year old
secondbaseman: .347 OBA and .417 slugging. It reminds me of my first
pick in a continuing league ever: a 22 year old Robbie Alomar with the
8th overall pick in 1991. Altuve has several years of growth to go, so
he has a decent chance of being an incredible stud at a scarce position.
...
I'm not militant about Altuve, but I don't see a distinctly better
choice.
Also, a 12 man pitching staff has 7 relief spots. A long reliever, a closer, a setup man -- you've still got four relievers to go. If you're carrying that many relievers anyway, why not make one a lefty specialist?
The thing that's driving up the size of relief corps isn't a proliferation of roles. It's the need for relief innings.
I think you're allowed to do this once per inning. It's not unlimited.
That's the thing. If there is a need for "relief innings", carrying someone who, at best, will give you a third of an inning per outing is a huge penalty.
I think, rather than three "lefty specialists" who, let's face it, generally suck overall, teams should work to identify and sign a good left-handed pitcher - someone who has some capability to get right handers out as well and who can go an inning or two at a time. In other words, sign good pitchers, with an eye to having some balance between lefty and righty. But signing a shitty lefty just so you can bring him in against guys who can't hit left-handers is a waste.
This. The alternative to carrying a LH reliever is mainly a RH reliever, not a 6th OF. Maybe teams that carry 13 pitchers would be better off with 12, but we're talking about an advantage on the margin here.
I also suspect James' outlook is shaped here by his work for a rich team. In his mind, the worst LHR on the staff is probably being replaced by a contemporary version of Gary Roenicke. But a guy who is a 110 OPS+ hitter and a league-average OF is a long way from a replacement player. I would guess you have to pay him quite a bit more than you do a LOOGY. Moreover, such hitters are good enough to be in MLB, they are already serving as 4th and 5th OF. Why don't we see more platooning as it is? I suspect that there just aren't that many LHH OF/1B who are worth replacing with the available pool of RHH bench OF/1B, even against a LHP.
Yes. I really think platoons should be used for at least half the lineups and thus the ideal number of PAs for most non-great hitters is 400. A manager should immediately check to see that every starter in his lineup is a better option vs each handed pitcher. Very good hitters can hit both LHP and RHP, but most hitters have significant platoon splits and are significantly worse vs one hand of pitcher such that their backups are a better option. I wouldn't ruin a young hitter this way -- I'd give him a chance to see what he can do against both hands -- but for established players where you know what you're getting I would definitely platoon half the lineup. This seems worlds better than carrying eleventy thousand relievers.
On the Ryan Howard situation, a manager who is aware would PH for Howard when you bring in a lefty reliever, but, well, sadly that is not most managers.
There are real gains to be had with liberal platooning.
I didn't know about the pitcher-switching rule. Is that relatively recent? I think many of us remember Davey Johnson and Whitey Herzog shuttling pitchers between the mound and a fielding position in the mid-'80s, and at least according to my bad memory, it was more than one switch in an inning.
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