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Amy Adams didn’t win Best Actress for “American Hustle”, so I guess you never know
The usual rule is that a player is consistent when he is young; when he gets older, what he loses is not the ability to produce but the consistency of his production.” Can I take that as fact? Could you, please, elaborate on that? It would make a good subject for a serious study.
1991 she correctly solved an apparently simple question ++ Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?
but until someone produces a study on consistency, it is more obvious that young players are inconsistent. (again young is under 26 years old)
It seems obvious to me that you should switch, what am I missing?....
I can’t demonstrate that it’s true, no. It seems obvious to me,
I think you're right for hitters, but I thought there were studies that showed pitchers are pretty much what they are from the get go.
I think they got it wrong because most people get it wrong.
I don't think I've ever seen anything like that. Most studies I have seen have shown that pitchers prime seasons is older than hitters, and everything I've seen from personal observation has indicated that young pitchers are massively inconsistent.
The Monte Hall problem is a simple example of symmetry breaking. Because the host only shows doors with no prize behind them, he's also telling you something about the door he didn't open -- that, for whatever reason, he *didn't* choose it as an empty door.
Why does it matter? This doesn't change the odds of the second choice at all. It's still a 50/50 proposition.
In fact, because Monty was always going to show an empty door, and because the contestant always gets the second chance, it's wrong to think about the first choice as being a 1/3 proposition. Really the first choice is wholly irrelevant. There's no logic as to why a contestant should automatically change their guess - it's going to be 50/50 either way. When it comes down to it, this isn't really a game about picking among three doors, it's a game about picking among two doors.
Monte hall disputes all the answers with the following quote "i don't always let them switch... and I get to choose when to let them switch knowing where the prize is"
Really the first choice is wholly irrelevant. There's no logic as to why a contestant should automatically change their guess - it's going to be 50/50 either way. When it comes down to it, this isn't really a game about picking among three doors, it's a game about picking among two doors.
Scenario 2: Host randomly chooses a door to open. 1/3 of the time you lose before you get the option to switch. If you switch, you win 1/3 of the time (or 1/2 the time conditional on a losing door being opened). This scenario operates exactly how most people think the problem does. Scenario 2 is Deal or No Deal, with the contestant randomly choosing, by the way.
What if you're trying to win a goat? (Did they actually let you keep the goat?)
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