
Read More...From 2005-present, the AL is .553 (2106 games) [against the NL]...
This is an issue that I was just completely wrong about. For years, asked about the relative strength of the leagues, I would say that I didn’t see how there could be a significant disparity between them. The teams in the two leagues draft players from the same talent pool. They send players to the same minor leagues to develop them, and they play against each other in those leagues. They trade players between ...
Login to Join (2 members)
{/exp:tag:subscribed}Page rendered in 1.3418 seconds, 176 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Page 1 of 2 pages
1 2 >I think it's fascinating that now you can ask Bill James a question about the validity of advanced fielding statistics, and have him respond with an anecdote of his own limited personal experience to support them. That it's the exact opposite of what he was doing 30 years ago is delightful irony. It means we've long since won the war he started.
Lawrie's defensive ultra-brilliance is shift-related. Fangraphs rates him as only really, really good (+9 so far this season) but not the Darwin Barney of 3B. :-)
Other folks have posted about it here and hopefully they're being accurate so ... the Jays shift Lawrie to the right side and leave the SS where he is when they shift. Apparently b-r WAR just records those as plays made by a 3B to the right of second and concludes "heavens to Betsy that's amazing range!"
Barney is probably a bit harder to explain as he is a 2B and so he's not ranging across half the diamond to make his shift plays ... and it's not like the shift was invented this year. He is making plays that other 2B aren't making but could even if credit should probably go to Sveum and the coaches rather than Barney.
Also: "Charley Horse" from Wikipedia: "The term may date back to American slang of the 1880s, possibly from the pitcher Charlie "Old Hoss" Radbourn who is said to have suffered from cramps."
How come the team you work for has done so many things that you would have laughed at in the 80s?
Bill's response:
Maybe we now finally have a way to quantify the contributions of managers. Shift Points!
I'm far from well versed in the matter, but it seems like we're at the point now where the value of each outcome is divided up between pitcher, fielder (sometimes), and batter. Crediting Lawrie with all the value of a successful shift (when he makes a play that 99% of infielders could make if they were standing where he is) seems less than ideal. Should the credit go to the pitcher? That doesn't seem ideal either.
Shifts appear to be adding value, but how to incorporate that value into WAR? (or whatever value stat you're using)
EDIT: Apologies for any gross simplification or misunderstanding of what stats like WAR do.
And #14 it's not clear that shifts are adding value. They change who makes the play, but pull hitters don't hit much on grounders at the best of times (and most shifts are for dead pull hitters). I think it's mostly about changing who gets credit on what amounts to a discretionary play. Basically teams are seemingly in the process of changing the expected distribution of outs on balls in play. I don't think it'syet a general problem, but there are specific problematic cases (and Lawrie is one of them)
This may be an area where James' fielding system shows to advantage in that there's a team component to every fielder's rating.
Before I give the Jays (or any other team's management) extra credit I'd want evidence that the fielders are actually making extra plays.
But really, at what point does this community remember that you need a gigantic sample of defensive numbers before you can begin to trust them?
Yogi Bear.
The Baby Ruth bar.
Less clearcut and/or significant: the Keltner list, the Pesky pole, Kiner's Korner, Wrigley's Gum.
And Jack Glasscock.
There was a link a few days ago which went into a bit more detail and it looks like it does. Lawrie is making plays which are ridiculously far out of his zone (in RF). He's compared to other 3B and of course no other 3B is making those plays. UZR ignores shift plays entirely and has him at +9 on the year, not +32.
In the AL, Toronto has the #1 3B, the #2 SS and the #1 2B (Kelly Johnson for crying out loud). In the NL, the Cubs have the #1 2B and the #1 SS (Castro, bwahaha). If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck but fields like Ozzie Smith then it stinks like 3-day old fish.
Here's what I don't get. If the tracker can actually code the "zone" of a batted ball (along with type and speed), they should be able to code the zone each IF starts in before the pitch. In/out of zone then gets measured relative to that starting zone. It will be crude but better than nothing.
Hey, where's MWE? This is the Jeter and Chipper issues all over again really.
But really, at what point does this community remember that you need a gigantic sample of defensive numbers before you can begin to trust them?
Yes, but in the "WAR era" we have never seen half-season numbers like this. Lawrie is already at +32. Brooks has the greatest season ever at +33. He needs to regress all the way to average not to set the record.
Other players (besides Ruth and Reggie) have had candy bars named after them, including Junior Griffey. Joe Medwick, when he was in the minor leagues, had the Duckie-Wuckie bar named after him. This is no longer in production, sadly.
Supposedly named after some president's young daughter.
I should clarify that Lawrie also looks pretty awesome at 3B. I can easily believe Lawrie is a great 3B that is getting some kind of shift bonus that makes him look other-worldly.
That's how I felt about Alan Embree. We all knew how great he was, but I sometimes wished another guy would get a chance in the post-season.
Yeah, that is interesting. We all think as impressionable young folks that it's named after Babe Ruth. Then we're told it's after Cleveland's daughter--mainly because that's what the candy company maintained. But, it turns out, it probably was named after Babe, and the Cleveland thing was promoted so as to not have to pay Ruth for the use of his name. Of course, a lot of this is just argument. See snopes.
So far this year, according to FG, Brett has made 49 out of zone plays. 181 balls in zone and he made 140 plays on those balls.
Moustakas is only a thousandth of a point behind Lawrie in RZR but is 21 plays behind in OOZ. DRS views Mike as a +9 runs guys while it views Brett as a +32 runs. UZR has them at 8.5 and 9.1 respectively.
For the record, Hanna Barbera also denied naming Yogi Bear after anybody. And if you can't trust a company that ripped off the vocal inflections of Phil Silvers, Art Carney, Jackie Gleason, Ed Wynn, Bert Lahr, Peter Lorre and Jimmy Durante, who can you trust?
Other plays that might be considered OOZ but are more normally expected of a 3B are 12 plays in the 6 zone, 1 play each in the 25, 9, and 2 zone. So that is 35 plays.
Now then I found 6 groundballs for singles that went through the 56 zone with a LH up against Toronto.
edit: A BIP query turns up 15 plays for Lawrie in the 34 zone and 4 plays in the 4 zone. The extra two plays are a ROE and a hit.
I wonder if Oscar Charleston would've squawked if Curtiss had put out a candy bar named after Cleveland's rape child and refused to pay him any royalties.
Wrigley's Gum dates back to the 1890's, long before the Wrigley family had anything to do with the Chicago Cubs or Wrigley Field.
I think that goes too far the other way, and I disapprove of UZR just ignoring selective plays because they don't match up to its theoretical framework. Lawrie's certainly making plays, and I think he should be credited for them somehow. Not as much as dWAR says, but I don't think you can just assume that all the balls in the area would have been outs without him.
This is a weird, weird development. A few years ago I remember incurring the pique of Chris Dial in one of these threads for opining that strict by-position assessment of baseball defense was artificial, in that there's really no reason anyone except the pitcher and catcher must play anywhere special, just that they must start in fair territory. Nonsense, said Chris (with reason), the seven fielding positions were established æons ago, and are as graven in stone as any Commandment. But within almost no time, fielding metrics are indeed being bedevilled by the fad/trend/seachange/whatever of sticking various guys just about anywhere the ball is likely to be hit.
bWAR's fielding component is plus/minus, also known as DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). They are the exact same thing.
How are you supposed to measure it though? UZR and other defensive metrics are based off of comparing the player to his peers. If his peers aren't moving around the diamond, how do you credit or debit someone for playing out of position?
I don't know how much this would help, but for those plays, they could consider it a temporary position switch. Lawrie is playing 2B, the 2Bmen is playing SS and the SS is playing 3B.
But that isn't what is happening when Lawrie moves.
It's like I'm on ignore or something. DRS gives Lawrie something like .99 runs when he makes a play in the shift but penalizes him something like .94 runs when a ball is hit to third base and he is in the shift. So far Brett has made about 25 plays in the shift and had 8 groundballs go through the third base area while he has been in the shift.
Plus Brett gets no penalty for not making a play while in the shift since it is considered a bonus play for him.
No idea! I just know I don't like any of the solutions so far. Perhaps, since Lawrie is effectively playing a defensive position unique in baseball, the defensive metric just weren't built to handle this situation.
I don't think there's any "perhaps" about it. I certainly prefer UZR's method to one where Lawrie suddenly becomes the bestest third baseman of all-time.
If managers are going to create new defensive positions (basically Lawrie is playing short-RF "rover" from men's league softball on shift plays) then analysts need to account for this change in tactic, not sit around and demand that the game can only be measured according to their already-existing methodologies.
As to the issue of defensive stats generally, the problem is not the limitation of the defensive stats; the problem is that people treat defensive stats with the same confidence as offensive stats. Isn't that what WAR does, after all? Just add oWAR and dWAR as if they're both calculated to the same degree of confidence?
I guess that's the best solution for now, but I still think it's weird to start doing that just as teams start shifting all over the place. It makes defensive statistics even sketchier.
If B-R had a WAR number with a smoothed out dWAR (a regressed multi-year average or something), I believe that people on this website would use it.
Page 1 of 2 pages
1 2 >You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.