Oddly enough, Dickey had a WP only about one per 60 innings perhaps meaning his "WP" are getting coded PBs. (His WP rates in the past were always high.)

...

the Mets led the league in PB (thanks to Dickey games) but had the 4th fewest WP. The Giants were tied for the fewest PB (5) but were 6th in WP. Combining the two, the Mets had 72 to the Giants 59. That difference is Dickey.

Do Dickey/Thole have a pronounced home/road WP/PB split by any chance? This all makes me wonder if maybe the whole thing is on the Mets' official scorer.

Combining the two, the Mets had 72 to the Giants 59. That difference is Dickey.

There's zero evidence for this. Lincecum lead the league in WP's, btw. So you could say that the difference between the Giants and the Phillies (the team with the least) is Lincecum.

And for what it's worth, the Mets led the league in PB (thanks to Dickey games) but had the 4th fewest WP.

Mets would have been among the league leaders for PB without Dickey. Saying that there were a lot of PB's without a lot of WP's is MORE evidence for poor catching, not less.

***

I can't find splits on PB's by park, btw.

Mets had 19 passed balls away and 13 at home. Had 24 wild pitches away and 16 at home.

Oddly enough, Dickey had a WP only about one per 60 innings perhaps meaning his "WP" are getting coded PBs.

Saying that there were a lot of PB's without a lot of WP's is MORE evidence for poor catching, not less.

Sorry, have you folks ever seen a knuckleballer? They throw the ball really slow, straight down the middle. More PBs and less WPs makes all the sense in the world.

(Many PBs come on pitches where the C was crossed up anyway, not necessarily the C's fault.)

your pt. is lost here. Whatever the data show, it is clear that some catchers are better than others at limiting PB. Even if it's not Thole's fault, another catcher, better at stopping PB would have made the catch. You can blame the pitcher, but it doesnt make Thole any better and it doesnt mean his inability to stop PB should not count.

It's not Al Oliver's fault that Pete Rose hits a drive into left center. But if Tolan is better able to get to the ball, does that not make Tolan better?

Sickels has his top 20 for the Mets posted, and it provisionally includes D'Arnaud (#1, A-)and Syndergaard (#3, A-). Flores comes in at #4 with a B+. The Mets and Jays have similar systems from a quick glance-- pitching depth but little by way of hitting help on the way.

11 prospects B- or better is very encouraging.

I was expecting to see D'Arnaud go when the Dickey rumours started, but I'm surprised Syndergaard is going too. I still like the trade, but the Jays gotta win now!

I still like the trade, but the Jays gotta win now!

The rotation right now is Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow, and Romero. If those guys stay healthy, I don't see how that's not the best 1-5 in the division. Their offensive core of Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes and Cabrera looks pretty good, and they still have some potential from improvement in the lineup with Rasmus and Lawrie. On paper, this has to be the best team the Jays have had going into a season in a decade plus.

God dammit. I move to New York for a few months and the Mets become completely unwatchable.

Not that I'm against the trade if it is as reported. That is the haul you'd need to move Dickey. I have a awful feeling that it won't end up as reported, though.

Apparently, an extension has been negotiated. No word yet on any terms.

If I were an unnamed, non-elite prospect right now, I'd be packing my bags with hurt feelings...

Jon Heyman was very taken with the idea that the Blue Jays prospect should be Danny Barnes, but I believe that was all because he was born in New York.

Robothal reports Dickey's new contract is 2/25, pending a physical. So just about exactly what he asked from the Mets.

Dickey in agreement with #BlueJays on two-year, $25 million extension that he had requested from #Mets, pending physical.

From Robothal's twitter feed. So much for the "no hometown discount". Woohoo!

The amount seems right, but I thought he'd tear up his contract and get 10/10/10 or something more even.

With those numbers on the extension, this is a really good deal for both sides, IMO. I would have preferred Gose to Syndergaard, but that's probably a bit short-sighted and unrealistic, and the Jays are thin in the same areas the Mets are on the prospect side.

What a bargain. I think Dickey will be terrific for the Jays.

I'm curious about the swap of "non-elite" prospects. What's the point? I guess when we learn the names we'll have an idea.

With those numbers on the extension, this is a really good deal for both sides, IMO. I would have preferred Gose to Syndergaard, but that's probably a bit short-sighted and unrealistic, and the Jays are thin in the same areas the Mets are on the prospect side.

I was thinking about this as well, since the Mets desperately need OF and Syndergaard is only in A-Ball, but he does look like a pretty good prospect, so maybve you are right about it being short sighted

The amount seems right, but I thought he'd tear up his contract and get 10/10/10 or something more even.

Why bother? In today's interest rate environment, the PV difference over 2 years is negligible.

From Robothal's twitter feed. So much for the "no hometown discount". Woohoo!

How Beltran-esque (i.e., selfish) of him!

Gose would certainly be our opening day starter in CF, but so would Rajai Davis, or, well, Andres Torres. It's a commentary on the Mets' dismal roster, not Gose's quality. Of course Gose might develop into a BJ Upton type, or something. I find it tough to weigh Gose vs Syndergaard, but am happy that we got either one of them.

Gose would certainly be our opening day starter in CF, but so would Rajai Davis, or, well, Andres Torres.

You're welcome to Rajai Davis whenever you want him.

Of course Gose might develop into a BJ Upton type, or something. I find it tough to weigh Gose vs Syndergaard, but am happy that we got either one of them.

Me too. I think if they were dealing with another organization, they would have tried to get two good hitting prospects coming back, but 1) the Jays just dealt two young hitters in the Reyes deal, and 2) Gose looks like he's going to be an asset to the 2013 Jays.

Snagging Davis would have been pretty sweet, though you're dead on in that it's more a reflection of their lack of OF depth.

You're welcome to Rajai Davis whenever you want him.

He and Gose on the same roster seems a little redundant, unless Gose is ticketed for AAA to get some experience hitting in a normal environment.

I can't see Gose making the ML club out of spring training, unless he's a different animal at the plate. I wouldn't be surprised if he's called up at some point during the early part of the season, and then Davis is traded.

Right, that's done.

Now for some outfielders and that bullpen....

He and Gose on the same roster seems a little redundant, unless Gose is ticketed for AAA to get some experience hitting in a normal environment.

This is the case. He'll be stashed in AAA, until the Jays get sick of Davis, or unless Rasmus doesn't hit again.

I can't see Gose making the ML club out of spring training, unless he's a different animal at the plate. I wouldn't be surprised if he's called up at some point during the early part of the season, and then Davis is traded.

I don't think they'll call up Gose to be a fourth guy. They might call him up if they figure Rasmus is a broken reed.

The intro to this article calls the Jays the "preseason favourites". I am constitutionally incapable of that kind of optimism about the Jays now, so don't go by me, but Rob Neyer wrote a thing today comparing the Jays and Royals; he figures the Jays are likely to be a close third in the wild card race.

I think the trade is a fair return for the Mets. But the negatives are: a) they are going to be a bad team this year and b) I don't see them being any good any time soon. I do not believe the notion that because they have salary "coming off the books in 2014" means that they will necessarily add good players. They have 1 very good position player, 1 average, maybe above average, position player (Davis), and the rest is filler. If Wilmer Flores and D'Arnaud pan out they will have 4 above average players at best. At least R.A. was fun to watch.
Good luck R.A.

They have 1 very good position player, 1 average, maybe above average, position player (Davis), and the rest is filler.

Average players, such as Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy, are certainly not filler. The Mets would kill to add some "filler" of similar quality in the outfield and bullpen.

PFish, I like those guys. Murphy was headed to a great year in 2011 when he got hurt. But he's a poor fielder with a fine OBP and little power. In fact, I think they should have considered moving him for an OF and putting Ronny Cedeno at 2B. I have hope that Tejada will continue to progress, but we had Reyes out there not too long ago. 2B isn't a zero power position any more, a lot of guys hit 20 HR there now.

Regards,
Tim

The Jays injury curse last year makes me apprehensive about this year too, but the team could just as easily win 100 games as 75.

Average players, such as Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy, are certainly not filler. The Mets would kill to add some "filler" of similar quality in the outfield and bullpen.

Yeah. I mentioned this in another thread; but all the Mets OF last year combined for about 4 WAR. Tejada had 2.1 WAR in 115 games, so over 155 games or so he was on pace for about 3 WAR, which was nearly as many as the entire Mets OF. So they would indeed kill for some OF like that. =

The Jays do now officially have my two favorite baseball players. If the Mets start off as #### and the Jays do well I might enjoy switching allegiances for a year.

Tim, the reason I pounced on that is that watching the Mets have made me acutely aware of the value of average players. Look at the list of guys we've had in right field after the days of Bonilla and Strawberry. Actually, I'll name them for you: Orsulak, Everett, Ochoa, Huskey, Cedeno, Operation Shutdown, Timo, Burnitz, Hidalgo, Diaz, Nady, Green, Church, Frenchy, Duda. Except for 4 months of Beltran in 2011, "average" is the very best that the Mets have done in right field in the whole of the last two decades. Average players are not easily acquired or developed, and they aren't cheap. That's twenty offseasons where we told ourselves, "if we just slot in an average right fielder we'll win another X games!" Hasn't happened yet, and it's not going to happen next year either.

No Lastings Milledge (another #1 prospect) or Moises Alou (I guess he was LF)? Shutdown was playing pretty well when he got hurt and Timo stepped in and got to the World Series. I suppose I'l take Huskey over any of those, Green wasn't half bad, too. I thought we had Mark Cameron in RF and Beltran in CF for a while. Maybe they can trot Wilmer Flores out there soon.

I think you get the point though, right?

Also, Church and Nady were generally average-ish. Hidalgo and Burnitz were mostly bad, but had their moments.

The larger point remains, though: the Minaya-era Mets failed mostly because of their chronic inability to surround a championship-caliber core with even adequate role players.

That wasn't really my point. Just that slagging off average players as "filler" was dumb.

There's zero evidence for this. Lincecum lead the league in WP's, btw. So you could say that the difference between the Giants and the Phillies (the team with the least) is Lincecum.

There's MASSIVE evidence for this. I forget my final count but there were, what, 18-20 PBs in Dickey's starts in 2012. Again, the league average was 1 PB per 117 IP. Thole's non-Dickey average was about the same. Meanwhile, in Dickey starts, there was a passed ball once every 13 IP. That is a passed ball rate 9 times higher than the average rate. You get 16 more passed balls than expected in Dickey starts. That is a passed ball rate this is twice as high as the league average WP rate. As you note, Lincecum led the league in WP at 17 ... Dickey had 18+ passed balls. If there was no Dickey effect, that would be like somebody these days having more triples than the number of league-leading HRs.

It's Dickey, not the Cs.

Seriously, you guys don't know that knuckleballers throw a lot of passed balls?

Boston in Wakefield's 30+ start seasons

1996: 23 PB, led the league by 6
1997: 36 PB, led the league by 17
1998: 35, led by 7
2003: 20, led by 7
2004: 21, led by 4
2005: only 13! did not lead league
2007: 10, middle of the league
2008: 18, led by 2

Rangers 82-90 (Hough)

1982: 19, led by 3
1983: 14, 3t
1984: 33, led by 16
1985: 23, led by 1
1986: 25, led by 5
1987: 73!, led by 43
1988: 36, led by 18
1989: 42, led by 25
1990: 35, led by 8

Braves 74-80 (Niekro's big IP years)

1974: 31, led by 11
1975: 35, led by 4
1976: 38, led by 6
1977: 34, led by 10
1978: 32, led by 10
1979: 25, led by 4
1980: 14, 2nd! (Houston, 24 ... with Joe Niekro)

White Sox 71-75 (Wood)

1971: 32, led by 7
1972: 23, led by 2
1973: 33, led by 6
1974: 19, 3rd
1975: 12, middle of pack

Mets 2010-12 (Dickey)

2010: 10, middle of pack
2011: 26, led by 9
2012: 32, led by 10

Neither their team totals nor their margin of "victory" are outliers. In the years I looked at, I think the only non-knuckleballer team with 30+ PB was the 75 Cards. Joe Niekro's teams had some bad years. Candiotti seems the knuckler who didn't throw a lot of PBs ... his teams didn't lead often in part because a lot of his career overlapped with Hough and some with the end of Niekro but I don't think his teams ever topped 30 either.

Of course I haven't gone through all the box scores to see how many of those PBs came in the knuckler starts. Feel free to do the legwork to show it wasn't the knucklers.

There are 2 threads going on right now about this trade, so I'll repost this here:

No idea if it's actually true, but Mike Francesa just said that the final guy the Mets are giving up is Mike Nickeas. He at least fits the "non-elite" part of the description.

That would be **awesome**!

Edit: Confirmed. OF Wulimer Becerra to the Mets.

Becerra batted .250/.359/.375 with no homers in 39 plate appearances this summer in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old outfielder is about as raw as it gets.

Nickeas was traded to the Mets for Victor Diaz. I really liked mini-Manny.

Why do you suppose the Jays wanted Nickeas?

They probably just wanted someone to be able to catch Dickey if Thole got hurt.

And they think Nickeas knows somebody who can do that?

Sickels has his top 20 for the Mets posted, and it provisionally includes D'Arnaud (#1, A-)and Syndergaard (#3, A-). Flores comes in at #4 with a B+. The Mets and Jays have similar systems from a quick glance-- pitching depth but little by way of hitting help on the way.

I hate this trade with the heat of a thousand suns, but if you're going to trade Dickey, this is the kind of package to get for him.

I'm curious about the swap of "non-elite" prospects. What's the point? I guess when we learn the names we'll have an idea.

Position of need for different position of need, probably. That's a typical rationale.

I was thinking about this as well, since the Mets desperately need OF and Syndergaard is only in A-Ball, but he does look like a pretty good prospect, so maybve you are right about it being short sighted

Often a tricky call. It's like the draft, where some teams aim for positions of need, and others live and die by picking the best player available, figuring that a position of need looks very different in three to five years, and that if the best player available pans out he can then be traded for a player at the position of need.

I like Gose. He's awfully young for having appeared in the majors, which is good and bad. His upside is higher but his service clock has already started. He's going to be getting expensive around the time the Mets have a better chance at getting good, while if Snydergaard pans out the Mets will have him under control during 2017-2022, which is a lot more likely to be their window.

The 2003 Mets won 66 games. The 2006 Mets won 97. It's unduly pessimistic to be looking ahead 2017.

Tim, the reason I pounced on that is that watching the Mets have made me acutely aware of the value of average players.

Minaya's inability to spot average players was just one of his many creative ways of undermining the contributions of the team's stars. Another was his inability to find players who could contribute a little something. I think it was in his last season, streaked with wonderful acquisitions like the Sarge Lite deal, when the Mets gave something like 2000 PAs to guys who were at or below replacement level.

Alderson's first year was cheering in that regard, in that Sandy had the knack for the opposite, for finding backups and role players that instead of sucking the life out of the team, might at least chip in 1 win/500 PAs. That doesn't matter much on a 75 win team, but it's still better than watching Mike Jacobs man first base.

PFish, I like those guys. Murphy was headed to a great year in 2011 when he got hurt. But he's a poor fielder with a fine OBP and little power. In fact, I think they should have considered moving him for an OF and putting Ronny Cedeno at 2B. I have hope that Tejada will continue to progress, but we had Reyes out there not too long ago. 2B isn't a zero power position any more, a lot of guys hit 20 HR there now.

Regards,
Tim

I believe the numbers strongly suggest that Murphy is a very good first basemen, and a poor second basemen, meaning that he's potentially a fine player whose value is limited by the way the Mets have chosen to use him.

As a fielder, at 1B, Murphy was +23/1200 innings, then +20/1200 innings in 2011 and 2012. At 2B he was -14/1200 and -12/1200. If you simply halve those numbers, he'd still be a good win and three-quaters better at 1B than at 2B over a full season. He looks like a solid 2 win player on offense, if he can stay in the lineup, and maybe he kicks it up a notch on a team that stops dicking with him defensively. So, yeah, Murphy doesn't look like a 1Bman on a championship team, but he strikes me as the kind of guy championship teams have in 2012--3 win players who are underpaid because they don't stand out at anything, and leave room on the payroll for stars.

The 2003 Mets won 66 games. The 2006 Mets won 97. It's unduly pessimistic to be looking ahead 2017.

Good one.

Between 2003 and 2006 the Mets added as regulars Jose Reyes and David Wright. In 2005 they also brought in a CFer whose name escapes me at the moment, but he wasn't too bad; and that borderline HOFer at 1B they added prior to the 2006 season... That and the budget to pick up real players at the margins had something to do with that club's success.

If you want to be persuasive about reasons to be optimistic about the current team, you'll have to project minor leaguers and tell us why you think they're likely to be contributors to the next good Mets team, and how the team is going to substantially improve without adding even remotely expensive free agents for the forseeable future. The Mets apparently can't even afford guys on 1/10 contracts. Where are the wins coming from? Does the 2011 draft look like a record breaking class to you?