If you want to be persuasive about reasons to be optimistic about the current team

Nobody's optimistic about the current team. But your time horizon is silly. You're omarsblackcloud, right? The guy who hates everything?

Nobody's optimistic about the current team. But your time horizon is silly. You're omarsblackcloud, right? The guy who hates everything?

Sorry to disappoint, but, no.

And that's funny, coming from a guy who doesn't bother to post any remotely detailed thinking on the Mets (or any aspect of the game--if I'm wrong, please feel free to favor us with a copy and paste of one example of real thought you've given to the game prior to this. One). And by that I mean, literally, ever. You have nothing to say but, by god, you're going to say it, over and over and over again.

You have nothing to say at all about the team, you never post anything of substance (morbid curiousity reveals you haven't written a post longer than one line in this entire thread), but choose instead to follow the path of the gutless heckler with nothing to offer but unpleasantness from the cheap seats.

Your entire contribution to date in the prospect thread was the single word "baseless", where you evinced more of these stalkery qualities where you follow around posters who aren't particularly positive about the team's prospects and, instead of offering a valid and constructive opinion telling us why you're optimistic, merely catcall.

Talk about a negative, depressing presence.

Whatever you say, omarsblackcloud.

Whatever you say, omarsblackcloud.

Sorry to disappoint, stalker. I can't help you.

The projection is almost funny, though, coming from a guy who doesn't bother to post any remotely detailed thinking on the Mets (or any aspect of the game--if I'm wrong, please feel free to favor us with a copy and paste of one example of real thought you've given to the game prior to this. One). And by that I mean, literally, ever. You have nothing to say but, by god, you're going to say it, over and over and over again.

Sorry to disappoint, but, no.

Come on. I don't know why you decided to switch from OBC to Something Other to Jack Carter, but it's blindingly obvious you're the same poster. Throwing a hissy fit every time you get called out on it doesn't help your case any. And this is coming from someone who is generally favorably inclined toward both the style and content of your posts.

I agree with the general point about the payroll-- it's really difficult to project what's going to happen going with the team, because I don't think anyone has a clue about what the budget situation's going to be. But that cuts both ways-- you can't state with absolute certainty that the Mets are going to suck in 2017, because you're as in the dark about the budget as the rest of us. This was a good package coming back for Dickey-- I think if you read the threads leading up to the Myers deal, you'll see that no one thought the Mets could get anywhere near an A-rated prospect for Dickey, let alone 2. Syndergaard's been compared to Wheeler, and Wheeler straight up for Beltran was considered a good deal (Beltran was a rental, and a midseason deal, so not apples-to-apples). Getting him back along with a nearly-ready, good-hit, good-field catcher is a win for the organization long-term. And Becerra's not a bad lottery ticket, even if the odds are bad.

There's currently a lot of pitching talent in the system. If d'Arnaud and Flores develop, along with Tejada, Davis, and Wright, that is a solid and fairly cheap core.

Just quickly from one of the Myers threads:

Lol. Dickey will not net you Myers, much less Myers+. Most GMs do not value Dickey as a true "front line" ace type starter, despite his 2012 season which was, admittedly, top notch. Knuckleballers are just too volatile to predict year to year, and he has no established track record (and given his age, I suspect the Mets would be better off keeping RA at a decent price).

I'd rather see them move Dickey for Myers plus.

This is a joke, right? A 37 year old knuckleballer who's signed for one year for a 21 year old AAA prospect who's cost controlled for six seasons? And you want a bonus, besides?

Of course, d'Arnaud is not Myers. But this does show that ML GMs valued Dickey more than a lot of people on BTF thought they did, in part because the particulars of his situation provide a chance at getting ace-level performance at a sub-market rate.

Seriously, you guys don't know that knuckleballers throw a lot of passed balls?

And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year. Thole had a really high rate of passed balls in non-Dickey starts. He lead the league in 2011 in PB's while only catching 133 innings of Dickey.

He's a baaaad catcher.

What explains Thole's performance in the non-Dickey innings?

And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year.

You know, Thole may have something to do with that.

And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year.

I'm still not sure why you insist on using only Dickey's 2012 WP rate for this. He threw a lot of wild pitches in 2008, 2010, and 2011. He didn't change his pitching style. It doesn't necessarily follow that with the decrease in WP should come a decrease in PB by his catchers.

Thole had a really high rate of passed balls in non-Dickey starts.

And it skyrocketed when catching Dickey! The same thing happened to Mike Nickeas. I have no opinion on either man's catching ability, but it's pretty clear that catching the knuckleballer was trickier for them than catching anyone else on the Mets' staff.

And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year.

Dickey set a knuckleballer record for K/BB. He's good. He isn't wild.

And it skyrocketed when catching Dickey! The same thing happened to Mike Nickeas. I have no opinion on either man's catching ability, but it's pretty clear that catching the knuckleballer was trickier for them than catching anyone else on the Mets' staff.

I really don't understand what tshipman is after here. Is he still mad about the Buster Posey comparison?

And it skyrocketed when catching Dickey! The same thing happened to Mike Nickeas. I have no opinion on either man's catching ability, but it's pretty clear that catching the knuckleballer was trickier for them than catching anyone else on the Mets' staff.

Yes, quite clearly catching the knuckleball was tricky for them. However, we have ample evidence that Thole is a bad catcher even when he's not catching Dickey. We would expect bad catchers to struggle at catching the knuckleball.

In addition, Dickey doesn't throw a typical knuckler. It doesn't float unpredictably, right? Like that was the whole key to his success? Being able to control it?

I really don't understand what tshipman is after here. Is he still mad about the Buster Posey comparison?

No. My point is that WAR for catchers measures them poorly. dWAR is especially bad. All the stuff about Dickey is mostly a sideshow, where someone hypothesized that Thole was getting some kind of kuckleballer credit for his catching.

It's sort of obvious that a guy who leads the league in most years in PB's is giving up more than one run a season on runners advancing--especially when he can't throw.

And this is coming from someone who is generally favorably inclined toward both the style and content of your posts.

Why thanks, dp. I admitted early on to the likelihood of a family resemblance when Ray started caviling at me for sounding like someone who took his lunch money, but beyond that I can't be helpful.

I agree with the general point about the payroll-- it's really difficult to project what's going to happen going with the team, because I don't think anyone has a clue about what the budget situation's going to be. But that cuts both ways-- you can't state with absolute certainty that the Mets are going to suck in 2017,

Where the fuck did I say anything about the Mets sucking in 2017?

I wrote

Often a tricky call. It's like the draft, where some teams aim for positions of need, and others live and die by picking the best player available, figuring that a position of need looks very different in three to five years, and that if the best player available pans out he can then be traded for a player at the position of need.

I like Gose. He's awfully young for having appeared in the majors, which is good and bad. His upside is higher but his service clock has already started. He's going to be getting expensive around the time the Mets have a better chance at getting good, while if Snydergaard pans out the Mets will have him under control during 2017-2022, which is a lot more likely to be their window.

I can't tell you how much I loathe this shit, where instead of actually bothering to discuss the issues at hand (and with the Mets, those issues aren't always particularly pleasant), someone just makes up whatever crap best serves the nonsensical insults they're chucking around.

What explains Thole's performance in the non-Dickey innings?

Post-traumatic stress disorder?

Where the #### did I say anything about the Mets sucking in 2017?

My bad. I meant 2015. The point still stands though-- if they have money to spend two offseasons from now, there will be good complementary talent on the team to put them in a competitive position-- The Nats and Braves will be good for the foreseeable future, but the Marlins look like they're in for another bad spell, and the Phils look weak for the next couple of years.

someone just makes up whatever crap best serves the nonsensical insults they're chucking around.

Where was the nonsensical insult? (aside from pointing out the obvious truth about the handle-switching-- I don't really care about it one way or the other, but when someone notices, don't insult them for it)

Why do you suppose the Jays wanted Nickeas?

AA is trying to set some sort of record for catchers churned through in a year. We used to make fun of his right-handed-reliever fetish, but it seems he's moved on. I expect to see Mike Nickeas traded for, I dunno, Jason Phillips.

[136]

For single seasons, Playing for the NYM, From 1991 to 2012, Played 81 games at RF, (requiring WAR_bat>=-15), sorted by most recent date

                                                         
Rk            Player Year WAR/pos   G  PA  AB  OPS    Pos
1         Lucas Duda 2012    -1.4 121 459 401 .718 *97/3D
2     Carlos Beltran 2011     3.5  98 419 353 .904   *9/D
3     Jeff Francoeur 2010     0.9 124 447 401 .662     *9
4        Ryan Church 2008     1.4  90 359 319 .785     *9
5        Shawn Green 2007     0.1 130 491 446 .782    *93
6    Richard Hidalgo 2004     0.8  86 359 324 .759   *9/7
7       Roger Cedeno 2003    -0.9 148 527 484 .698    *98
8     Jeromy Burnitz 2002    -0.2 154 550 479 .677   *9/D
9         Derek Bell 2000     1.5 144 622 546 .773  *9/81
10      Roger Cedeno 1999     1.3 155 525 453 .804 *987/4
11      Butch Huskey 1998     0.3 113 402 369 .707   *9/D
12        Alex Ochoa 1997    -0.4 113 262 238 .649  *9/8D
13     Bobby Bonilla 1993     3.0 139 582 502 .874  *95/3
14     Bobby Bonilla 1992     1.2 128 506 438 .779   *9/3
15      Hubie Brooks 1991     0.0 103 407 357 .733     *9

[149] Minaya's inability to spot average players was just one of his many creative ways of undermining the contributions of the team's stars. Another was his inability to find players who could contribute a little something. I think it was in his last season, streaked with wonderful acquisitions like the Sarge Lite deal, when the Mets gave something like 2000 PAs to guys who were at or below replacement level. 

Alderson's first year was cheering in that regard, in that Sandy had the knack for the opposite, for finding backups and role players that instead of sucking the life out of the team, might at least chip in 1 win/500 PAs. That doesn't matter much on a 75 win team, but it's still better than watching Mike Jacobs man first base. 

For single seasons, Playing for the NYM, From 2005 to 2012, Played 10 games at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF or DH, (requiring WAR_bat<=0), sorted by most recent date

                                                              
Rk               Player Year WAR/pos Age   G  PA  OPS      Pos
1      Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2012     0.0  24  91 314 .691     *879
2            Lucas Duda 2012    -1.4  26 121 459 .718   *97/3D
3            Josh Thole 2012    -0.1  25 104 354 .584       *2
4           Rob Johnson 2012    -0.2  29  17  58 .587     *2/1
5             Jason Bay 2012    -1.3  33  70 215 .536       *7
6          Mike Nickeas 2012    -0.7  29  47 122 .471     *2/D
7     Jordany Valdespin 2012    -0.3  24  94 206 .710  7489/6D

8         Ronny Paulino 2011    -0.3  30  78 248 .663       *2
9          Mike Nickeas 2011     0.0  28  21  59 .510       *2
10           Brad Emaus 2011    -0.7  25  14  42 .424       *4
11        Willie Harris 2011    -1.2  33 126 283 .668  74/859D
12        Justin Turner 2011    -0.1  26 117 487 .690    *45/6
13         Chin-lung Hu 2011    -0.4  27  22  23 .141      4/6

14        Gary Matthews 2010    -0.6  35  36  65 .507     8/97
15      Jesus Feliciano 2010    -0.3  31  54 119 .563      978
16           Lucas Duda 2010    -0.2  24  29  92 .678       *7
17         Chris Carter 2010    -0.2  27 100 180 .706     79/D
18        Joaquin Arias 2010    -0.1  25  22  33 .483    *4/67
19            Alex Cora 2010    -0.6  34  62 187 .543    *4/63
20          Rod Barajas 2010     0.0  34  74 267 .677       *2
21         Ruben Tejada 2010    -0.4  20  78 255 .588      *46
22       Fernando Tatis 2010     0.0  35  41  72 .592    3/54D
23         Henry Blanco 2010    -0.1  38  50 144 .571       *2

24    Fernando Martinez 2009    -0.2  20  29 100 .517     7/89
25       Ramon Martinez 2009    -0.6  36  12  44 .396     *6/4
Rk               Player Year WAR/pos Age   G  PA  OPS      Pos
26          Omir Santos 2009     0.0  28  96 306 .688       *2
27          Jeremy Reed 2009    -0.8  28 126 178 .605    78/93
28   Anderson Hernandez 2009    -0.2  26  46 149 .686     *6/4
29           Nick Evans 2009    -0.6  23  30  69 .660      7/3

30        Luis Castillo 2008    -0.5  32  87 359 .660       *4
31        Argenis Reyes 2008    -0.1  25  49 121 .504       *4
32        Damion Easley 2008    -0.6  38 113 347 .692 *4/673D5
33      Marlon Anderson 2008    -0.3  34  87 151 .530    7/34D
34        Raul Casanova 2008     0.0  35  20  61 .708       *2
35          Moises Alou 2008     0.0  41  15  54 .777     *7/D

36        Mike Difelice 2007     0.0  38  16  47 .661       *2
37          Jeff Conine 2007    -0.8  41  21  50 .550    *3/79
38       Carlos Delgado 2007     0.0  35 139 607 .781     *3/D
39         Paul Lo Duca 2007     0.0  35 119 488 .689     *2/D
40          Ricky Ledee 2007    -0.1  33  17  43 .698       *7
41          Ruben Gotay 2007     0.0  24  98 211 .772     4/65
42        Jose Valentin 2007    -0.1  37  51 183 .676     *4/D

43   Anderson Hernandez 2006    -0.5  23  25  67 .407      *46
44       Chris Woodward 2006    -1.1  30  83 253 .600  465/793
45        Mike Difelice 2006    -0.4  37  15  30 .353       *2
46    Lastings Milledge 2006    -0.7  21  56 185 .689       79
47         Kazuo Matsui 2006    -0.4  30  38 139 .505       *4
48          Shawn Green 2006    -0.1  33  34 126 .768     *9/3
49          Cliff Floyd 2006    -0.5  33  97 376 .731       *7
50         Julio Franco 2006    -0.1  47  95 179 .699     3/D5

Rk               Player Year WAR/pos Age   G  PA  OPS      Pos
51        Mike Difelice 2005    -0.2  36  11  19 .328       *2
52      Gerald Williams 2005    -0.3  38  39  32 .658     87/9
53         Miguel Cairo 2005    -0.6  31 100 367 .620  *4/3579
54         Kazuo Matsui 2005    -0.2  29  87 295 .652       *4
55          Mike Piazza 2005    -0.1  36 113 442 .778     *2/D
56        Jose Offerman 2005    -0.3  36  53  80 .636      3/4

He's going to be getting expensive around the time the Mets have a better chance at getting good, while if Snydergaard pans out the Mets will have him under control during 2017-2022, which is a lot more likely to be their window.

When I read this, I had the same response as Arbitol Dijaler. No team would ever target a season so far away in its planning. Although I suppose that is more likely to be the Mets' window, only because it is so far away as to be completely unknowable.

Yes, quite clearly catching the knuckleball was tricky for them. However, we have ample evidence that Thole is a bad catcher even when he's not catching Dickey. We would expect bad catchers to struggle at catching the knuckleball.

Good catchers, too. Walt Davis has listed dozens of staffs with knuckleballers in them, and most of them gave up a lot of passed balls. Were all of their catchers coincidentally bad?

The 2008 Mariners, who had neither Thole nor Mike Nickeas on them, allowed 14 passed balls, 8 coming in Dickey's 112.1 IP. That was Kenji Johjima, Jamie Burke (?), and Jeff Clement. I think Clement was a pretty bad catcher; I don't know anything about the either two. Maybe they were all bad, too.

Even if Thole and Nickeas and Johjima and Mirabelli and Pocoroba and Sundberg were all awful defensive catchers (Sundberg won six Gold Gloves), it's still fairly obvious that catching the knuckleball caused them to allow more PB than they would have otherwise. Maybe they were bad, but they weren't as bad as their PB totals indicate. There DOES need to be a PB adjustment for them.

In addition, Dickey doesn't throw a typical knuckler. It doesn't float unpredictably, right? Like that was the whole key to his success? Being able to control it?

His is a fast knuckleball - possibly the fastest knuckler ever. But it still darts unpredictably. If it didn't, it wouldn't be a knuckleball. That's what the pitch does. Dickey can hit the strike zone with it, but that's a much bigger target than the catcher's glove.

I really am surprised that this is even a discussion. Anyway, you say that there's "ample evidence that Thole's a bad catcher even when he's not catching Dickey." Awesome - since that's what you're worried about, you don't need to come up with more excuses about why Dickey is the exceptional knuckleballer who's actually easy to catch.

Sorry to disappoint, stalker. I can't help you.

The projection is almost funny, though, coming from a guy who doesn't bother to post any remotely detailed thinking on the Mets (or any aspect of the game--if I'm wrong, please feel free to favor us with a copy and paste of one example of real thought you've given to the game prior to this. One). And by that I mean, literally, ever. You have nothing to say but, by god, you're going to say it, over and over and over again.

You're him. You probably got kicked off the site for acting like this.

Who the #### is Rob Johnson? Is BB-Ref using mountweazels now?