Can we get a defensive rating for Freeman? BTW- Love his projections for this year. Hope he can meet and exceed them.

Nice projection for Beachy.

AV/89 - didn't enter it in, apparently (Freeman at 1B)

Jeez, those comps for Heyward (Dave Clark, Matt Winters & Sid Bream) are brutal.

Chris Masters SP 0% 1% 99% Brian Adams Andrew Martin Lex Luger

Can the Braves afford to pay him to pitch? I don't know!

Edit: seriously though, Crush, Test, and Luger? Those are some horrible wrestling comps. If the baseball Masterpiece dies young and/or is involved in the death of (for example) Chipper Jones' ex-wife, I'm going to have to cite his ZiPS projection and say you saw it coming.

Jeez, those comps for Heyward (Dave Clark, Matt Winters & Sid Bream) are brutal.

So, I guess we should hold off planning the HoF induction weekend?

Nice comps for Masters, though given the finisher I'd list his top comp as Billy Jack Haynes rather than Adams.

The projection for Medlen seems to be missing.

He tweeted medlen's #s: 5-4 3.83, 82.1-80-8-26-67, 29 g, 9 gs

Julio Lugo AND Jack Wilson? huh.

Those McCann comps are strangely depressing. McCann already has more WAR in his career than Nilsson or Edwards. Porter was pretty good I guess.

With the team not being aggressive financially, the Uggla signing is a real problem, though not one they can really do anything about at this point.

You want to get mad at the Braves for not spending money but when they do - coughDerekLowecough - you think maybe it's for the best.

The Braves are in an awkward spot. You don't want to overreact to the September collapse and organizationally implode, ala the Red Sox. The Braves won 89 games last year and 91 the year before. This is a good team. And it's a good team with a lot of young talent. There's no need for a dramatic overhaul (which is good, because Atlanta doesn't have the money for such a thing).

On the other hand, the offense was a legit problem last year, even before the September choke job. It's not overreacting to say that the offense needs a jump start. And the NL East keeps getting tougher. The Phillies are basically the NL's version of the Red Sox (without the nervous breakdown of this past off-season), the Marlins are throwing around money and the Nationals are gearing up to become a serious contender. And then there are the Mets.

Gary Gaetti? Chipper is ... better than Gary Gaetti.

Heyward career projection, ZiPS 2011: 275/395/477, 10700 PA, >1600 R, ~1500 RBI, 420 HR, 134 OPS+
Heyward career projection, ZiPS 2012: 253/373/435, 9500 PA, >1200 R, >1000 RBI, 304 HR, 119 OPS+

Ouch!

Those McCann comps are strangely depressing. McCann already has more WAR in his career than Nilsson or Edwards. Porter was pretty good I guess.

They're based on "recent" production. Nilsson still doesn't look like a great comp (about 6-6.5 oWAR 25-27 if you adjust for playing time) compared to McCann (just under 10) but Edwards had about 10 if you adjust for playing time. Meanwhile, from ages 25-27, Porter was a god -- 1767 PA, 128 OPS+, 14.7 oWAR.

But I've never quite been clear the extent to which the ZiPS comps are meant to be "this is who he's been like the last 3-4 years" or "this is who he will be like this year (at same age X)" or "this is who he will be like for the next X years." I assume the middle one but, like all comps, it's a lot more fun to treat it like the last one. :-)

Gary Gaetti? Chipper is ... better than Gary Gaetti.

You try finding comps for 40-year-old 3B. :-) At least Gaetti played at 40, Caminiti didn't even play at 39 (Cey did but not at 40).

Also Gaetti had that torrid run with the Cubs at 39 and finished the season with a 121 OPS+. Granted, on the surface at least, Nettles seems a better comp than Gaetti.

Uggla is overpaid, yes. But 110 OPS+ plus FR 2B defense = mediocre? Isn't that above-average?

The Phillies are basically the NL's version of the Red Sox (without the nervous breakdown of this past off-season), the Marlins are throwing around money and the Nationals are gearing up to become a serious contender. And then there are the Mets.

All of this is true, but as of right now, barring any further moves, neither the Marlins or the Nationals project to finish ahead of the Braves in 2012. They've improved, but they were *really friggin' bad* last year.

All of this is true, but as of right now, barring any further moves, neither the Marlins or the Nationals project to finish ahead of the Braves in 2012. They've improved, but they were *really friggin' bad* last year.

The Nats went 80-81. They now get 120 more innings of Strasburg, 6 or 7 more Zimmermann starts, and Gio Gonzalez. Werth, Zimmerman, and LaRoche are highly likely to provide significantly more value than in 2011. Sure, Morse could regress, and someone's gotta get hurt somewhere, but the Nationals would seem to project in the high-80s right now. They look like a toss-up with the Braves to me.

The Nats went 80-81. They now get 120 more innings of Strasburg, 6 or 7 more Zimmermann starts, and Gio Gonzalez. Werth, Zimmerman, and LaRoche are highly likely to provide significantly more value than in 2011. Sure, Morse could regress, and someone's gotta get hurt somewhere, but the Nationals would seem to project in the high-80s right now. They look like a toss-up with the Braves to me.

If we're going to apply the best case scenario to the Nats we have to apply the same rose-colored predictions to the Braves.

Prado, Uggla and Heyward all "provide significantly more value than in 2011." McCann doesn't collapse down the stretch again. Beachy/Minor/Teheran provide better innings than Lowe/Minor/Beachy.

All of a sudden, the Braves are 90+ wins and the Nats are still looking up from 3rd place.

Was Chipper's 2011 the best season ever by a 39 year 3rd baseman? He seems to be hitting two comparability problems--great players frequently don't have good comps and very few third basemen play well into their late 30s so greater players like Schmidt and Brett and Matthews fall away, so a comp system for age 39 is either going to list good-hitting outfielders or an odd assortment of third basemen having late-career big years. Or is the question really, did Chipper age better than any third baseman ever? He's going to have be good at age 40 to keep up with Nettles, though. Darrell Evans hit well into his 40s but was basically third base by then.

It would be Chipper vs. Boggs. Boggs had 295 starts at 3B from 37-39 and put up (total) 8.9 WAR (1522 PA total). Chipper had 328 starts at 3B and put up 8.4 WAR (1489 PA). Gaetti was pretty close -- 7.2 in 369 starts and 1620 PA. Nettles is well back with 5.4 WAR in 338 starts and 1445 PA.

Nettles, as you note, did have a heck of an age 40 season (3.1 WAR, all offense) but was replacement level after that. Still that extra WAR only catches him up to Chipper. Gaetti was terrible after 39 and Boggs added only .4 WAR. So Chipper can take a clear lead this year.

What's Freeman's peak supposed to look like? How much is he supposed to improve upon last season's 118 OPS+?

The Nationals are not a high 80s win team.

The Nationals are not a high 80s win team.

They might be. We should wait till the ZiPS projections to find out! Harper could be already awesome for all we know.

What's Freeman's peak supposed to look like?

I like the Hrbek comp; Herbie's actually the player of whom I'm reminded most when I watch Freddie. Would have liked to see a career projection.

-- MWE

Any chance for a Wilkin Ramirez projection? I think he just signed with Minnesota...

Morse could regress

Biggest understatement ever?

That projection for Jurrjens seems pretty modest.