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That Wacha reached the major leagues so quickly is a mark in his favor, but even if the draft were done over today, there's enough unrealized potential in other players that I find it extremely unlikely Wacha would even go in the top five, much less No. 1 overall.
In total, 1,238 players were drafted in June 2012, of which six have played in the major leagues at all. Every single one of those six came from the SEC,
Michael Wacha went No. 19 overall because 18 teams liked another available prospect better than they liked him. And if you redid the draft today, playoff heroism and all, many of those 18 teams would pass on him again.
Buxton would be almost everyone's top choice, I imagine. Who else is clearly getting picked before Wacha?
I can easily see teams passing on a guy who they think will be a two-pitch pitcher.
I mean, it's not like a two-pitch SP is unheard of.
Would the Cardinals be disappointed if Wacha has John Lackey's career?
How many curveballs did Curt Schilling throw per start? It wasn't many.
I'm assuming the author would add Correa, Almora, Appel and Russell.
Pitch f/x only has his last year, but marks him as 15% sliders and 13.1% curves. I'd buy the argument that pitch f/x wasn't working optimally in 2007.
I think you could make an argument for Zunino, Gausman, Zimmer, Appel, Giolito and Seager as well.
I guess you could make an argument for those guys but you should lose it. Only Seager makes any sense and a lot of that depends on whether he stays at shortstop.
Zimmer, Appel, Gausman and Giolito? why in the world?
He was a different guy at the tail end of his career. I've heard interviews with him where he specifically mentions having to throw more breaking pitches late in his career when he lost some velocity off the fastball.
I wouldn't buy 13% in his prime, but he may have thrown more than I am remembering -- like 7-8% maybe.
We're not guessing anymore, we've seen performance and one has been great.
Wacha's obviously off to a great start, but it's not like what he's doing is unprecedented. In fact he's facing a guy tonight (was facing) who had a very similar ride back in 2002 in John Lackey - very good regular season (121 ERA+ in 108 innings to Wacha's 131 ERA+ in 65 innings) followed by a great run in the playoffs (until tonight, for Wacha). They're even both kind of similar pitchers. Would the Cardinals be disappointed if Wacha has John Lackey's career?
How many innings do you need with thehuge difference in results that we've seen? Wacha thrown 170 innings and Gausman 144. Wacha has been dominant and Gausman was mediocre in the Minors and terrible in MLB. 300? 500?
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