BBTF.org/m/cubs : Chicagoside: An Artistic Rendering of a Cubs Fan’s Wet Dream

Thursday, May 23, 2013

FanGraphs: Cameron: The 2013 Cubs: Better Than We Think

(www.fangraphs.com)

posted 1 day ago by Repoz to cubs, sabermetrics | 41 comment(s)

Light at the end of the ridiculously low-ceilinged tunnel.

The Cubs have actually played pretty good baseball when sequencing is not considered. By wOBA differential, they’ve been a well above average team. Their record is almost entirely a reflection of the power of the timing of various events.

In our Win Probability section, we track a stat called “Clutch”, which basically looks at the wins a team has gained or lost due to the leverage of the game when their positive or negative ...

Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. JJ1986 posted on January 18, 2013 at 05:29 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Should have had the Cubs win the World Series in 2015.

2. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

posted on January 18, 2013 at 05:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Hey, cut the stall. If not now, when?

3. The District Attorney posted on January 18, 2013 at 05:47 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Because, of course, if a Cub shortstop played at a Hall of Fame level, it's inevitable that he would carry the team to a World Series.

I will say that Starlin is well-situated to get a lot of career hits. He could not even be much good as a player and still do that.

4. Gonna break my Rusty Kuntz and run . . . Arbitol posted on January 18, 2013 at 05:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

[1] That is correct.

5. zonk posted on January 18, 2013 at 05:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Fail.

My Cubs fan wet dream doesn't involve a bronze plaque.... it does involve a WS, but more of enjoying it in a luxury box with a naked Kate Upton, gratis unlimited Hendricks, and Steve Garvey forced to be the valet as I get increasingly drunk and demanding.

6. bobm posted on January 18, 2013 at 05:58 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It is a good thing they cleared up the assault allegation, because, you know, the integrity and character clause.

7. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars posted on January 18, 2013 at 05:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Strange that Cub fans dream about their great players finishing their careers with other teams.

8. Chicago Joe

posted on January 18, 2013 at 06:06 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

My Cubs fan wet dream doesn't involve a bronze plaque.... it does involve a WS, but more of enjoying it in a luxury box with a naked Kate Upton, gratis unlimited Hendricks, and Steve Garvey forced to be the valet as I get increasingly drunk and demanding.

You have to pay for Kate, but Christina is gratis?
You wind up pregnant if you let Garvey lurk around.

9. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat posted on January 18, 2013 at 06:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

.321 and 3490 hits means 10,872 ABs. At his current rates of walks and such that's 11,659 PAs. The gets him to 4th all-time in PAs for a guy with 75% of his games at SS, behind Ripken, Jeter, and Vizquel. Ths is crude, but the numbers add up:

Year      Age      Tm      Lg      AB       H         BA
2010      20      CHC      NL      463      139      .300
2011      21      CHC      NL      674      207      .307
2012      22      CHC      NL      646      183      .283
2013      23      CHC      NL      640      193      .302
2014      24      CHC      NL      640      213      .333
2015      25      CHC      NL      640      213      .333
2016      26      CHC      NL      640      213      .333
2017      27      CHC      NL      640      213      .333
2018      28      CHC      NL      640      213      .333
2019      29      CHC      NL      640      213      .333
2020      30      CHC      NL      640      210      .328
2021      31      CHC      NL      640      210      .328
2022      32      CHC      NL      640      210      .328
2023      33      CHC      NL      600      195      .325
2024      34      CHC      NL      550      180      .327
2025      35      CHC      NL      500      163      .326
2026      36      CHC      NL      400      130      .325
2027      37      CHC      NL      350      110      .314
2028      38      CHC      NL      200       60      .300
2029      39      CHC      NL       89       22      .247
Totals                           10872     3490      .321 

10. TerpNats posted on January 18, 2013 at 07:26 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I don't mind if the North Siders win two World Series over the next 10 years...if the Nationals win three.

11. Moeball posted on January 18, 2013 at 08:47 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I have friends who are die-hard Cubs fans (mostly dying these days), and even they don't see the above future happening for the Cubs.

If and when the Cubs eventually win another World Series, Starlin Castro won't be the reason why.

12. Gamingboy posted on January 18, 2013 at 09:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Seriously, none of the players end up playing in, like, Tokyo or Havana at the end of their careers? How are we supposed to be completely sure it's the future?

13. jobu posted on January 18, 2013 at 09:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Anthony Rizzo to the A's as an aging slugger feels right, but it will be AFTER he spends some time with the Red Sox. The A's will squeeze the last drop out a la Kingman, Reggie 2.0, Billy Williams, Joe Morgan, Eric Karros, Tris Speaker, Ty Cobb, etc.

Brett Jackson as a Hall of Famer. Hmm.

14. RMc and His Roster of Rubbish posted on January 19, 2013 at 10:11 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I don't mind if the North Siders win two World Series over the next 10 years...if the Nationals win three.

And the Tigers win the other five!

Should have had the Cubs win the World Series in 2015.

Still a more likely event than mass-marketing of hoverboards.

15. jobu posted on January 19, 2013 at 10:55 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Still need the Marlins to move to the AL.

16. Transmission posted on January 19, 2013 at 11:54 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

If Rizzo, Jackson, Baez, Soler, Castro, and Almora all have those careers, then I'll take the over on 2 WS Champions. That's not just six HOFers in the lineup, it's six no-doubt HOFers...

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Thursday, May 23, 2013

FanGraphs: Cameron: The 2013 Cubs: Better Than We Think

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Cubs Think Factory