Thursday, May 23, 2013
FanGraphs: Cameron: The 2013 Cubs: Better Than We Think
(www.fangraphs.com)
Light at the end of the ridiculously low-ceilinged tunnel.
Read More...The Cubs have actually played pretty good baseball when sequencing is not considered. By wOBA differential, they’ve been a well above average team. Their record is almost entirely a reflection of the power of the timing of various events.
In our Win Probability section, we track a stat called “Clutch”, which basically looks at the wins a team has gained or lost due to the leverage of the game when their positive or negative ...
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Page 1 of 2 pages
1 2 >I think this is a pretty interesting trade for the Cubs. And probably the official end of whatever minor chance remained that they'd sign Prince Fielder.
The site has been down for roughly an hour, this thread was posted a little before the site went down(it didn't actually go down, just wouldn't allow comments on anything from 3:50 until roughly 4:50.)
Baseball talk will resume on some threads.
Rizzo > Alonso
Grandal's pretty good, but he's going to need to max out for this chain of deals to not be a disaster for the Padres.
Then it isn't just me, this seems like a pretty good deal for the Cubs correct?
Seeing that Cashner is likely limited to the bullpen makes me like this even more.
Better than "pretty good," I'd say.
I apologize. Thought it was probably too snarky when I wrote it anyway, but it's Friday, so whatever.
This is getting pretty interesting for Prince, no? Given the news of recent weeks, I didn't expect the Cubs to get Fielder, but you never say never until the ink is dried on the dotted line. With the Cubs out, that leaves Washington, Toronto, and who, Seattle? I'm anxious to see who blinks first. I don't think Prince is getting close to what he wants.
If that's true it's a steal for the Cubs.
I was going to say that my only memory of Eric Patterson was a game against the White Sox in 2008 where he was one of four Cubs to go deep in the same inning. Upon further review, he only had an RBI-single in that inning, so my lone Eric Patterson memory isn't even accurate.
I'll piss myself laughing if he ends up going back hat-in-hand to Milwaukee. That 5/100 might be starting to look OK.
What is up with the Padres? I seem to remember thinking about 2-3 years ago that they were going to have a massive offense and a couple of number two pitchers coming up in the near future, and it seems like they haven't panned out or have gotten traded. I mean Rizzo should have been given a legitimate shot this season, it's not like they are actually going to compete this year, let the kids play.
They're playing Alonso. Not the kid I would have picked, but he has potential.
Yeah, I'mtrying to figure out what this means for Fielder. It seems like it might just be Washington left as a serious contender, with Milwaukee, Texas, Toronto and Baltimore as 'maybes'.
Outstanding. He went to Oakland in the Harden deal, right?
I like this trade a lot.
Honestly, this wouldn't surprise me at this point. Unless Prince is dead set on going elsewhere - if for no other reason than to not have egg on his face for being so adamant about leaving in the first place - why not go back? I'd say they have a better chance of getting into the postseason than any of his potential suitors and 5/100 certainly isn't peanuts, especially if no other team is stepping forward to slap a significantly better offer on the table.
That he did. I kind of liked him, but his last name made me suspect of whether he'd ever amount to much in the big leagues. Four years later and those suspicions weren't unjustified.
Speaking of that deal, I think that was the last really good trade Jim Hendry made. Hell, it may have been his last pretty good trade.
I will say, though --
- I liked Cashner quite a bit, but he has had health issues and it was always a question about whether he could stick in the rotation. I was optimistic he could.
- I AM a bit worried about FO's getting fetishistic about a single player (See MacPhail, Andy and Pie, Felix). However, Rizzo obviously saw his stock rise even further in SD.
All in all, though -- hard for me to see how this isn't Thed's first big "win" that I think everyone can agree on.
EDIT: Oh and BTW - yeah... I think there exists a very high potential that Prince is getting screwed here and Scott has to beg Milwaukee to re-offer something approximating the 5/100... Of course - the Crew has already bought A-Ram, so not sure they can still afford 5/100.
Did they offer arbitration? and if so can he still accept? That's what some guys did when the "market" was a bit less pleasant than hoped for.
Boras will still find a way to get Fielder his money, that much I'm sure of, there is no way Fielder signs for less money than Ryan Howard.
Can't/won't pay for Fielder: Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Oakland, Mets, Pittsburgh, Houston. St. Louis could pay for Fielder but it seems very unlikely that they'd go back on their statement that they'd rather go forward with their current roster than take the Fielder consolation prize.
So that's 22 teams that are almost certainly not in the running whatsoever.
Toronto - Maybe, could jump-start contention hopes and take advantage of Bautista's prime
Baltimore - They've been in the mix for expensive free agents before and been beaten out, I know there hasn't been much noise from them about Fielder but I haven't heard any reason to rule them out
Texas - I don't really know much about Mitch Moreland, is he considered likely to be good going forward? Even if he isn't the Rangers have various other large salary commitments so unless things fall apart with Darvish they don't seem likely.
Seattle - Definite possibility with Ichiro!'s big contract expiring after this season, a lot of pressure of Zduriencik to show results soon, and a team desperately in need of offense
Washington - Doesn't seem likely for the reasons outlined in that recent thread, too much money committed or likely to be committed soon without being sure that the revenues will be there.
Miami - Hey, why not?
Milwaukee - I know Melvin has said that they have spent the money elsewhere already but if Fielder comes back asking if that 5/$100 is still available would they really say no?
Dodgers - Doubtful since the sale won't go through until the spring.
So that's Toronto, Seattle, Miami, and maybe Baltimore that are still possibilities to give Fielder the big contract he wants and Milwaukee waiting in the wings to see if he has to settle for much less. Maybe Texas is in that boat too. If I had to lay odds I'd say he goes to Seattle because they're the only team that seems desperate enough, financially stable enough, and also likely to make a potentially bad decision on a huge contract.
Edit: Plus Carlos Pena is still out there and could easily be snapped up by one of those likely suitors who just says "eff it, this is taking too long, the contract is risky, and we need to fill our hole and move on"
Well, he didn't just struggle; he was godawful (51 OPS+ in 153 PAs). That said, I love this trade.
EDIT: Even ignoring the small sample size, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Rizzo's probably not the sort of hitter who'd be helped much by Petco.
Yeah - I think everyone had this one as coming... What's surprising though -- the talk at that time centered around Garza (with perhaps more than Rizzo going the other way). What's surprising here is that the price was really just Cashner -- whom I still thought might have a decent mid-rotation future, but most think has an upside approximating Kyle Farnsworth -- and what amounts to a lottery ticket.
That said what is the cubs rotation right now? Garza, Dempster, Wood, Wells?, +????
Volstad.
So he's going to Washington one way or the other?
Looks like even the Padres can't win every trade.
Well, anything's possible. But unless there is truly no market for him now, I think waiting a year would be foolish. Even if he has a big year, teams are going to say, "Well, that's great and all. That was why I was willing to overpay for your dotage. But now one more prime season is gone, which makes paying your age 36 season that much less attractive."
I am probably the biggest Cashner believer here and even I am pretty pumped about this move.
So this is exciting. Cashner has upside but even if he was looking to be a big part of the rotation, it's a price worth paying. Top offensive threat > mid-rotation starter every day of the week and twice on doubleheader days.
Big-time yay.
This creepy weather is making us all grumpy.
I think this is a pretty interesting trade for the Cubs. And probably the official end of whatever minor chance remained that they'd sign Prince Fielder.
I would have thought that no matter how good a prospect he is, .141 in 49 ML games doesn't sound like a very effective block to signing Fielder. Sign Prince, let the kid blossom, then maybe turn him around or switch him somewhere. I suppose it would factor in, but I wouldn't have interpreted it as an end.
Lastly, I was wondering if he was related to Mike Rizzo, but I find no evidence on the tubes of such a thing.
Milwaukee is out unless Prince is willing for deferred money
Brewers budget is tapped
Tucson. The ZiPS translation to Petco was nothing special.
Sexson's a not-unreasonable comp, actually.
-- MWE
The trade would only seem to make sense if the Padres are higher on Cashner than folks here are just as they are clearly higher on Alonso (or lower on Rizzo) than folks here. ZiPS gave him a pretty good projection (albeit in a mix of starting and relieving so maybe seeing him as a bit above-average). But I'm certainly fine with picking up a quality prospect like Rizzo and let somebody else roll the injury dice with Cashner.
On Prince ... I'm not seeing him making Howard money unless it's in name only with heavily deferred salary. Pujols only got Howard (AAV) money because the Angels swooped in at the last minute. Nobody's swooping on Prince I don't think. I won't rule out something like 3/$75 I suppose but I don't know who gives it to him. I think a return to Milwaukee is a reasonable bet at this point but the Nats or Rangers are probably the best bets.
But I also have to agee with HW that it's hard to see how Milw could make a Prince contract work for them. They've already got ARam structure 6/10/16(+4). Gallardo's buyout has a 6/8/12 structure. Backload Prince's contract and the 2014 payroll blows out entirely. They do have money coming off but it's hard to imagine they won't want to sign at least one of Greinke/Marcum after this season. So I've probably talked myself out of Prince to Milwaukee.
Not that it matters much but this also ends the dream of LaHair as the next Brian Daubach or something. It reduces (but hardly eliminates) the chances of a Garza trade -- at the least, you'd think we'd have to get a mediocre ML starter back as part of the package but that wouldn't seem to leave enough room for the prospects we'd want in such a trade.
Anyway, we now have 3 spots on the "next good Cub team" filled in Rizzo, Castro and Jackson -- not that it's guaranteed Rizzo or Jackson will actually be any good but it's hardly guaranteed thee will be a "next good Cub team." :-)
Rizzo's 23 in August, IIRC.
Page 1 of 2 pages
1 2 >You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.