Even more impressive is that Rizzo has compiled his stat line while facing lefty SPs in half his games and has an OPS over .900 against southpaws.

Cubs are now 14-16 over their last 30 games. Despite everything, their worst month was still April. They're no longer officially in last place. They've played above .500 at home since their first homestand.

Things are looking up!?

Rizzo's struck out five times in his first 49 PA with the Cubs. When he was called up by the Padres last year, he struck out 14 times in his first 49 PA, and then got even worse.

The reports this offseason were that Rizzo closed a hole that major league pitchers had found in his swing. His significant improvement in the minors (both in K rate and overall production) suggested he'd successfully fixed his swing, and his first 50 PA couldn't be a better sign that Rizzo's improved his contact skills up to at least major league quality.

I wouldn't have Jeff S. in the bad. Sure, he has been uneven, but he has shown good potential.---------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah, 5 K in 49 PA would have been great if he did that at AAA. His strikeouts have always been the big concern--if he's licked that, look out!

Harold Reynolds broke down Rizzo's swing in 2011 versus 2012. Quite a marked difference between the hand position and the length of his swing. I've only seen maybe a dozen of Rizzo's Cub at-bats, but he's one of those guys where the ball just sounds different off of his bat. I'm excited.

I wouldn't have Jeff S. in the bad. Sure, he has been uneven, but he has shown good potential.

I think this is sarcasm, right?

I wouldn't have Jeff S. in the bad. Sure, he has been uneven, but he has shown good potential.

I think this is sarcasm, right?

Well, the ERA+ is down to 85 -- but his K rate is still quite nice and while his command has gone rapidly downhill, 3.3 BB/9 can work if that K rate stays where it is.

I think you have to be hopeful that there's someone out there who sees a Victor Zambrano ("I can fix him!"). He does lead the team in both GS and IP -- so I do hold out a little bit of hope that he just hit a wall and could use some time off. If he can get back to something within shouting distance of his first 1/4 performance, I would hope he can be a trade candidate. He's not going to fetch a ton - but like I said, maybe there's someone out there who sees a quite good K rate, some decent stuff, and is willing to overpay to try to 'fix' him.

I think you have to be hopeful that there's someone out there who sees a Victor Zambrano ("I can fix him!"). He does lead the team in both GS and IP -- so I do hold out a little bit of hope that he just hit a wall and could use some time off. If he can get back to something within shouting distance of his first 1/4 performance, I would hope he can be a trade candidate. He's not going to fetch a ton - but like I said, maybe there's someone out there who sees a quite good K rate, some decent stuff, and is willing to overpay to try to 'fix' him.

Unless they get some sort of miracle deal, I think they're better off just keeping him to see if it can work. He's been uneven, but I think he's quite clearly a better pitcher than he has been in the past, and at this point who knows what they've got with him. Even if this is as good as he gets, he's a not-catastrophic back-end starter, and if he's still performing like this next year he'll be worth just as much in a trade then.

So I vote "keep" for now.

I see that Baseball America is saying the Cubs signed their first round pick, Albert Almora.

So I vote "keep" for now.

Fair enough, and I don't disagree. I just see the good part of this season as a fluke more so than improvement, even while admitting his stuff looks better this year when I watch. But I also must note I cannot evaluate him objectively.

I know you told yourself he's too young, but I feel like it can't be stressed enough that Castro is 22.

I wouldn't give BPJ away -- they paid a lot for him and he's had instances of being fairly good... sometimes with smoke and mirrors peripherals (as in the actual bullpen jesus iteration), other times - he's actually looked as good as his numbers (until he hit the recent wall, he was pitching as well as the line said).

Still, he'll be 28 next year and I think he's used up all his "he missed development time to football" rope -- he's had 6 years now of pro instruction, focusing on pitching.... so if he's gonna click, it's time for him to click.

Just spitballing ideas here -- and these are not rumors, just ideas -- if Baltimore were to offer up any of their failed SPs for him (say.... Matusz or Tillman), I'd probably do that.... buy a few years of youth to take another whack at turning a major league arm into a major league pitcher. If the Dodgers were to offer up, say... Garrett Gould...

I agree that he's not an 'autotrade' -- if you figure Dempster is as good as gone, and Garza a decent shot at gone -- we'd be out of SP candidates I really care to get a couple months' look at.

I know he's just 24 - but I think I'm not alone in saying that I've seen more than enough of Casey Coleman. Figure Volstad slots in for Dempster and who else is there you really want to test drive for two months? Jay Jackson has been an awful, awful gopher ball machine. Chris Rusin looks like a lefty innings eater at absolute best -- a lesser Maholm, if that. There are a couple guys posting decent numbers at Tennessee (Struck in particular), but no one whose performance and age screams "promote me".

Sooo... I have no problem keeping Samardizja - but I'd certainly be listening to offers.

I wouldn't give BPJ away -- they paid a lot for him and he's had instances of being fairly good... sometimes with smoke and mirrors peripherals (as in the actual bullpen jesus iteration), other times - he's actually looked as good as his numbers (until he hit the recent wall, he was pitching as well as the line said).

The bolded part is irrelevant. As long as they're getting adequate production for what they're paying him now, that's all that matters.

I know you told yourself he's too young, but I feel like it can't be stressed enough that Castro is 22.

Right. It really is impressive what he's done already in his career.

I know you told yourself he's too young, but I feel like it can't be stressed enough that Castro is 22.

Sure - but he has sort of atrophied... He'll still be plenty valuable as a rangy - but erratic - SS who runs well, has good gap power, and a quick enough bat to be able to compensate for his continually abysmal plate awareness.

However - I'd have just liked to see SOME part of his game take something approximating a step forward this year... Either more power, a keener eye, more consistent defense.

Beyond a minor bump in power between his freshman and sophomore year - he's really the same player he was in his debut. Like I said, that's still plenty valuable (especially as long as he's cheap) - but plenty valuable isn't franchise cornerstone.

Just spitballing ideas here -- and these are not rumors, just ideas -- if Baltimore were to offer up any of their failed SPs for him (say.... Matusz or Tillman), I'd probably do that.... buy a few years of youth to take another whack at turning a major league arm into a major league pitcher. If the Dodgers were to offer up, say... Garrett Gould...

I agree that he's not an 'autotrade'...

No way. I'm getting an elite package back in order to deal Samardzija at this point.

What would be the point of dealing him for Matusz or Tillman? Some random "change-of-scenery" swap, just at the moment where Samardzija is finally starting to put up some big league peripherals? Gould is a lottery ticket who should be a throw-in on a bigger deal.

I honestly don't see how any of this helps the Cubs. They've got a real asset in Samardzija right now - not a star, but a guy who looks like he might belong in a big-league rotation, and he's not a free agent for 3 more years after this one. Why give that up for lottery tickets or reclamation projects? That sure sounds like an "autotrade" guy to me.

However - I'd have just liked to see SOME part of his game take something approximating a step forward this year... Either more power, a keener eye, more consistent defense.

His defensive stats show a HUGE step forward. And he's on pace to double his career HR total from the previous two seasons. I know his walk rate is disappointing, but there are plenty of gains to be seen if you look.

Moses, I've had the same feeling on Castro for a while now. He's basically maxed out the production he can get from his BA skill and he's not going to show any real power with that swing unless and until he starts waiting for a good pitch to drive. I won't say he can't get better (Jose Reyes found patience in MLB) but I think it's unlikely he makes any major improvements at the plate.

What would be the point of dealing him for Matusz or Tillman? Some random "change-of-scenery" swap, just at the moment where Samardzija is finally starting to put up some big league peripherals? Gould is a lottery ticket who should be a throw-in on a bigger deal.

Matusz and Tillman are both 2-3 years younger than Samardizja.

His defensive stats show a HUGE step forward. And he's on pace to double his career HR total from the previous two seasons. I know his walk rate is disappointing, but there are plenty of gains to be seen if you look.

Shift related? Given Barney's MVP candidacy based on dWAR warping via the shift - I'm just distrustful of defensive numbers. He is on pace to exceed his career HR high - but his ISO and SLG really haven't moved much. In effect, a fair chunk of doubles are -- prorated -- are going over the fence.

Again - I don't want to sound like I'm down on Castro... I'm just a bit frustrated that he hasn't taken a big step forward.

His defensive stats show a HUGE step forward. And he's on pace to double his career HR total from the previous two seasons. I know his walk rate is disappointing, but there are plenty of gains to be seen if you look.

But his XBH are down overall - his doubles are way down.

Shift related? Given Barney's MVP candidacy based on dWAR warping via the shift

It's not just B-Ref's DRS that has improved though - the Fangraphs numbers, which as I understand it factor out the shifts, are very favorable to Castro as well.

In effect, a fair chunk of doubles are -- prorated -- are going over the fence.

I suppose this is could be true ... but it sure seems like it would be counterintuitive.

His defensive stats show a HUGE step forward.

Independent of any shift-related noise in his stats, I think his defensive mechanics have meaningfully improved. I was at 2 of the 3 games with the Mets this past weekend, and I paid close attention to Castro's positioning, breaks on the ball, and footwork. He still seems a bit loose-limbed and is prone to double-clutching on throws to first, but even my untrained eye could see significant differences from last year.

Semi-relatedly, does anyone know where to find fielding game logs? I was going to back up my assertions above with Castro's month-by-month error totals from 2012 (since I think more than half of his current error total came in the first month of the season), but I couldn't find them anywhere.

You don't trade Jeff Samardzija for a rehab project.

Castro made his 7th error of the year on April 21st, 15 games into the season. He's made 6 in the 70 games since.

You don't trade Jeff Samardzija for a rehab project.

Why not?

Again, I'm not saying I see any great need to deal him -- but at this point, he'll be 28 next year. He's had 150 MLB games - granted, not a lot of MLB innings - but he's been full-time on the mound for 6 professional seasons. The chances are slight he's ever going to be anything more than a mediocre swingman who occasionally flashes enough stuff to make you think "what if".

I know the Zambrano/Kazmir thinking is pretty rare - but you DO run into organizations every once in a while with a staff that sees a guy pitch and believes they're the ones that can finally help him harness his potential. IF there's a team out there who thinks that about Samardzija, and IF they're willing to part with something of moderate value for that opportunity, I'm highly tempted to pull the trigger.

It's foolish not to ask around - on no planet should Jeff Samardzija be anything approaching 'untouchable'. There are certain fallen prospect icons that I'd seriously consider taking back. Tillman is one - I don't like Matusz as much, but if the Birds were to add in a lottery ticket or two with Tillman, I'd pull that trigger.

Matusz and Tillman are both 2-3 years younger than Samardizja.

Oh, and I offer a huge "big deal" in response to this. Younger doesn't mean better, and neither one has track records that look all that promising (meaning that it's questionable that their teams will get more from them than the Cubs are getting Samardzija now). Matusz even hits free agency the same year Samardzija does, and Tillman is only a year later.

If Samardzija was approaching free agency, I'd agree. But he's not, he's under team control until after the 2015 season. "Younger" doesn't mean all that much in context.

Samardzija's FIP is 3.66. His K/BB remains excellent, and he's not giving up too many homers. His problems, statistically, are BABIP and (especially) strand rate. I certainly wouldn't deal a guy who might actually be a 120 ERA+ pitcher right now, but who is getting random variation'd to death.

If it isn't random variation, then Samardzija's biggest problem is his pitching in the clutch / with men on base, and that seems like one of the more fixable pitching problems for a first-time starter that you could ask for.

Samardzija is 35th in the majors in FIP, 21st in xFIP.

And how can you say it's unlikely a 22 year old makes any major improvements at the plate?

Apropos of nothing, quite an interesting mix of comps for Starlin through age 21, all the usual caveats apply of course:

Garry Templeton (957)
Arky Vaughan (956) *
Dick Bartell (944)
Jim Fregosi (943)
Fred Carroll (941)
Travis Jackson (939) *
Vern Stephens (937)
Bobby Doerr (926) *
Rogers Hornsby (924) *
Mike Caruso (923)

Because he hasn't improved since he was a 20 year old and with his profile I think the one particular skill that must get better for any further improvement actually appears to be regressing. He's drawn fewer walks per PA each year in the league. If that is something he is capable of improving on then he's doing it wrong. Edgar Renteria and Rafael Furcal were middle infielders who had similar value at the plate at similar ages. What did they turn into?

And to be more specific, I think there is less than a 50% chance he turns into a hitter who consistently posts OPS+s over 120. A guy who hovers between 100 and 110 is definitely a valuable bat at shortstop - even if it's light on OBP.

Bryan LaHair - He’s cooled off and couldn’t be much worse against lefties

Of course that's just 47 PA against lefties. But the time to find out if he could handle lefties was earlier in the year when the alternative was Baker at 1B. With Rizzo up, it's probably not worth trotting out LaHair in OF against lefties.

On Castro: yes, just 22 and I suppose therefore likley to improve (add a bit of power) but he really hasn't improved yet. And just 12 BB in 363 PA -- that's nearing historically awful. It's true that, Templeton aside, even his b-r through age 21 comps are a pretty impressive (but generally not great) bunch. And it's true that Yount (one of his ZiPS comps) didn't break out until 24. Same with Jeter (although he always walked more). Really, I just want to see him get the BB rate to Francoeurian levels.

Of course that's just 47 PA against lefties. But the time to find out if he could handle lefties was earlier in the year when the alternative was Baker at 1B. With Rizzo up, it's probably not worth trotting out LaHair in OF against lefties.

He looked every bit as bad as those numbers indicate, if not worse. I do agree that there really wasn't any reason to platoon Baker so much early on though.

Similar raw batting lines to Renteria and Furcal, not adjusted for run environment.

The closest batting comps for Starlin Castro in the modern era, shortstops through the age of 22, cover a very wide range of outcomes.

105 OPS+, +6 BRuns, 1500 AB, 301/337/422 - Starlin Castro

99 OPS+, -10 BRuns, 1500 AB, 299/319/405 - Garry Templeton
99 OPS+, +0 BRuns, 650 AB, 310/365/425 - Derek Jeter
103 OPS+, +2 BRuns, 750 AB, 310/355/387 - Harvey Kuenn
97 OPS+, -2 BRuns, 1200 AB, 251/334/364 - Chris Speier
92 OPS+, -11 BRuns, 700 AB, 278/325/416 - Jimmy Rollins
101 OPS+, +1 BRuns, 1000 AB, 274/336/430 - Wil Cordero

"A better Jimmy Rollins" is probably the comp there that makes the most sense to me for Castro.

"A better Jimmy Rollins" makes him ... what? Jim Fregosi?

That makes some sense. I didn't include Fregosi on the comp list because he was way better than Castro at the same age, but Fregosi peaked at 22. His overall set and level of skills seem reasonably Castro-like - add some singles and take away some walks. Jim Fregosi's career with a more normal aging curve seems like a non-crazy realistic/optimistic vision of Castro's career prospects.

If there were some way to simulate what Garry Templeton would have done if he'd never touched the cocaine, that would be interesting too.

no mention of tony fernandez?

"A better Jimmy Rollins" is probably the comp there that makes the most sense to me for Castro.

As long as he's not paid like Jimmy Rollins, there are worse things you could have at SS. When you start paying Jimmy Rollins prices for Jimmy Rollins "production"... thaaats where you get into trouble.

It's the Templeton comparison that most (and most frighteningly) always sticks with me... True, we can't exactly sim Gary without the blow - but when I was coming of age as a baseball fan, Gary had pretty much reached stagnation and Ozzie was on his way to being hailed as the best defensive SS in history (whether he is or not).

In effect, to my new baseball fandom -- trading Ozzie for Gary seemed a real stupid trade... but older fans -- uncles, older cousins, etc -- would tell me otherwise.

no mention of tony fernandez?

I think Castro has more power already and it basically took Tony to age 24 to do what Castro was doing at age 20.

Before the season started I said Castro isn't a walker nor a slugger and his defense sucks. At least one of those things improved this year.

I'm not sure what your criteria were but you probably missed Yount who had just a 90 OPS+ through age 22. But then if you include more guys around 90, it's probably not as promising as just noting Yount. :-)

By the way, when I say I worry about Castro, it's not that I worry about him being a good player -- Renteria, Rollins on up to Harrah, Fregosi, Franco is quite a bit of value. Even the "downside" of Templeton is 8000 PA of league average SS.

But his ZiPS comps entering the season were Yount, Jeter and Brett. Dan gave us the longer list too:

Paul Molitor
Hanley Ramirez
Steve Sax
Alan Trammell
Garry Templeton
Troy Tulowitzki
Carney Lansford
Zoilo Versalles
Roberto Alomar
Jim Fregosi
Adrian Beltre
Edgar Renteria
Chris Speier
Cecil Travis
Robinson Cano
Joe Thurston
Buddy Bell
Lou Boudreau

Molitor, Trammell, Alomar, Beltre, Bell and Boudreau are HoF, HoM or have a darn good argument for at lesat the latter. Tulo, Hanley, Fregosi and Cano are at worst HoVG. There are some "poor" outcomes there but who could ask for anything more?

So when I express "concern" or "disappointment", it's that he hasn't yet shown signs of taking that big step, not that I won't be perfectly happy to have him at SS for another 6+ years.

So when I express "concern" or "disappointment", it's that he hasn't yet shown signs of taking that big step, not that I won't be perfectly happy to have him at SS for another 6+ years.

Right - he's certainly a keeper. I think 'disappointment' is mostly summed up by "he's not a franchise player yet". He still might be and even if he doesn't, there's absolutely no need to worry about a SS upgrade for the next three years at least.

As long as he's not paid like Jimmy Rollins, there are worse things you could have at SS. When you start paying Jimmy Rollins prices for Jimmy Rollins "production"... thaaats where you get into trouble.

This comment doesn't really make a lot of sense to me. Jimmy Rollins has been a very good bargain for the Phillies over the years. From 2006-2008, he provided the Phillies with 17 WAR for a combined 21 million.

Is it March of 2009?

Edgar Renteria and Rafael Furcal were middle infielders who had similar value at the plate at similar ages. What did they turn into?

Shortstops of a quality the Cubs could only dream of having?

Come on, now. I freely admit that Starlin Castro is a valuable player and an asset to the Cubs. Renteria and Furcal were just two guys who came to mind for putting up league-averagish hitting at young ages and didn't really build on those starts and rise to greatness. The idea that Castro is destined for super stardom by virtue of being productive and very young is fast slipping away. Heck, Andrelton Simmons is only six months older and is clearly outhitting Castro. Jose Altuve is two months younger and outhitting Castro. Ruben Tejada is five months older and outhitting Castro. They are all middle infielders.

Come on, now. I freely admit that Starlin Castro is a valuable player and an asset to the Cubs. Renteria and Furcal were just two guys who came to mind for putting up league-averagish hitting at young ages and didn't really build on those starts and rise to greatness. The idea that Castro is destined for super stardom by virtue of being productive and very young is fast slipping away. Heck, Andrelton Simmons is only six months older and is clearly outhitting Castro. Jose Altuve is two months younger and outhitting Castro. Ruben Tejada is five months older and outhitting Castro. They are all middle infielders.

My opinion of Castro is best described as "very cautious optimism," but this takes it a bit too far.

Castro has amassed over 1500 PAs at age 22, and has a .301 BA. None of the players you mention -- and I emphasize that I think highly of these players and will not be surprised if one or more of them end up having a better career -- has done anything like this yet. And none of them have Castro's power potential.

My concern about Castro boils down to the usual with regard to Cubs position prospects: he is a Cubs position prospect. Which means he has problems with the strike zone. And then there are the mental lapses, etc. But there is no denying that he has established himself quite nicely at this age, and I would say he is quite a bit further along than the players you mention.

Again, Furcal and Renteria did not have similar numbers to Castro at this age.

I'm curious, how many players in MLB history rose to stardom after around 1600 PAs with a walk rate around 4.8%?

The big counter example in Castro's favor (who I can think of) is Jose Reyes and his big turnaround started in his age 23 season.

Castro is a fairly unique player in MLB history so the comp game is tough. The ZiPS list is great and all but I bet if Dan forecasted it now it would look a lot different and It's going to look a lot different when he does it prior to 2013. Castro is no longer at an age where being a productive major leaguer is exceedingly rare.