Seriously? That's his upside? Not the 205 of 2009? Talk about using selective endpoints.

Not at all. Recent history tells us more about a player. If you're signing Zack Greinke thinking that he's going to be the player he was in 2009 (and only 2009), you're taking a huge risk and likely making a big mistake.

I might be overrating Greinke. But I think you are tremendously discounting how he would help a rotation.

I wouldn't mind if my team signed him. But he's a #3 on a good team- maybe a #2- and it would be a bad idea to a: expect him to be an ace or b: pay him like one. I also don't think it's a good fit for the Cubs considering how far they have to go to contend.

Who's "the" Alex Gonzalez?

Good one. The Alex Gonzalez was on the winning team in the '03 NLCS.

I wouldn't mind if my team signed him. But he's a #3 on a good team- maybe a #2- and it would be a bad idea to a: expect him to be an ace or b: pay him like one. I also don't think it's a good fit for the Cubs considering how far they have to go to contend.

We've had this discussion plenty of times, but a guy projected to put up a 105-110 era+ and pitch 180 innings, is not a number three, he's almost the text book definition of number 2(there is no such thing as a number five pitcher as that role is filled with whatever value you can get)

@51

Sigh. Geinke has been able to maintain his K rate since he put starting putting up 120 ERA+ seasons in 2007. (There has been some fluctuation there but he did league the NL in K/9 last season.) His BB rate hasn't really changed. His HR/9 rate is pretty much the same as well.

Recent history does tell us more. But to say that what we saw this past season is the high end that one could expect to get out a Greinke contract just doesn't add up if you are looking at any statistic other than ERA+. If ERA+ is the only stat we have to use, maybe Greinke isn't much more than a #3. But we have a lot more than just ERA+ to judge him.

I asked you this earlier in the thread. If Greinke is just a pretty good #3 as long as he isn't too expensive, what type of pitcher would be a very good #3? I really think you are overestimating the number of talented, reliable* pitchers that are on MLB rosters.


* This is an aside, but I think Greinke is going to make a killing in free agency regardless of him being a #1, #2, #3, or #4 type pitcher. Baseball is flush with money, Greinke is by most accounts the best pitcher available, and Greinke is athletic has never had a pitching injury. I think his health record is going to give him an extra year or two and a few million extra for each of them because it is a lot easier to trust Greinke over the long term compared to hoping that Anibal Sanchez's shoulder continues to hold up.

[EDIT] I suppose the mental health issues will matter to some teams but in terms of his arm holding up, Greinke's record is pretty spotless. In fact, the time away might have helped him stay healthy.

Any other names shared between players of similar quality?

Jeff D'Amico?

Jeff D'Amico?

The Jeff D'Amico is the guy who played multiple MLB seasons, which isn't utterly shocking.

I read somewhere that the biggest problem with many teams is they don't recognize exactly where they are on the suck->getting better->good->getting worse->suck continuum.

The Cubs lost 100 games, I think they're clear where they are on the suck-to-suck continuum ... apparently they're on both ends of it.

If I were Theo, I'd look at the roster and say "Who's likely to contribute to a championship-caliber team in '15?" and trade everyone else of any value.

This is what they did last offseason and at the trade deadline this year ... which is why they sucked at a 100-loss level.

I don't have a clue how the Cubs are going to have anything resembling a championship-caliber team in 2015, especially without spending a lot on the FA market but here's who can still go:

DeJesus
Garza
Barney if anybody wants him
Marmol if anybody wants him

Nobody will want anybody else the Cubs have and is not (by contract) potentially part of our fab 2015 champs. A Cub team without those 4 and without substantial upgrades elsewhere will be amazingly, amazingly bad. Note, even if we brought in Greinke and Upton as you halfheartedly suggest, that's not a major upgrade on DeJesus and Garza for 2013.

The Cub payroll, with arb awards, currently stands at about $60 M including all arb awards -- for the highest revenue team in the NL. That's $70 M down from 2011. Nearly half of that $60 M goes to Garza, Marmol and DeJesus so we can be down in Rays territory if we play this right.

By the way, answering my trivia question (you guys are no fun):

Garza 106
Greinke 105
Dempster 101
Shields 101
E Jackson 100
Saunders 100
Guthrie 99
Lincecum 98 (my what a terrible season does)

Of the names tossed around, the Cubs already had two of these guys last year. And Maholm has essentially done this the last two years and SPJ did this in 2012 too. And they still lost 100 games (and would have come close even if they hadn't traded Maholm and Dempster).

Relevant to other posts, the list (requiring at least 500 IP from 2010-12):

#15: 122 ERA+, Hudson
#30: 106 ERA+, Garza
#45: 97 ERA+, Vargas
#60: doesn't exist, the list stops at 59 (Lowe, 83 ERA+)

That's only 500 innings, not exactly requiring iron men. We'll make it 2011-12 and 320 IP:

#15: 123 ERA+, Cain
#30: 110 ERA+, Peavy
#45: 102 ERA+, Scherzer
#60: 91 ERA+, Lincecum
70 qualifying pitchers (Lowe, 76)

2012, at least 160 IP:

#15: 126 ERA+, Kuroda
#30: 112 ERA+, Arroyo
#45: 104 ERA+, Johnson
#60: 97 ERA+, Wainwright
#75: 88 ERA+, Correa
#90: 72 ERA+, Jimenez
91 qualifying pitchers (Lincecum, 67)

Of course the cutoffs sneak up a bit as you reduce the pool but not dramatically so and a pitcher who posts a >100 ERA+ in 180 innings will be a top 60 pitcher in the league for that season. It's true, good teams (especially in a season) will have 3 or 4 guys above that threshold. That's why it sucks to be the Indians. Of course the Cubs had 3 of those guys (plus Garza) and still sucked.

Please understand how rare "reliable" pitching is. There aren't even 60 guys who have pitched 500 innings over the last 3 years. There aren't even 75 guys who have pitched 320 innings the last two and there are barely 90 who have pitched 160 innings in 2012. So, you don't turn it down when you can afford it but, unfortunately, the other lesson is that no pitcher can actually guarantee it. Greinke can get hurt or go off a cliff just like any other pitcher.

Step 1:

Convince Hal Stienbrinner to Move the Yankees to Chicago and Rename them the Cubs

Step 2:

Convince the Cubs owners to move to New York and rename themself as the Yankees


Profit!