Not so fast, Toronto didn't useva career year to lock up the age 32-35 years of their 2nd baseman for $35m dd they?

Given that they aren't paying him to reproduce his career year, or anything particularly close to it, this looks like a good deal to me (and it is, in fact, an extension on top of his current contract, so he's signed through 2016). Hill has been awesome ever since he was traded to Arizona. Projection systems have him anywhere between 3 and 4.5 WAR for next year. The 0.5 WAR per year rule-of-thumb decline would make it a fair deal even taking the lower end of his projected talent. However, if you believe that second basemen falling off a cliff in their early 30s is a real phenomenon, then there's ample reason to be wary.

I suppose the Dbacks won the Kelly Johnson trade.

The whole sequence of Kelly Johnson-related transactions has been a real coup for the Snakes. Remember, Johnson was coming off a career-worst year when AZ signed him before the 2010 season. Buying low, it cost AZ only $2.35MM for 4.1-WAR production. The next year, the Dbacks gave a little of that back, by re-signing Johnson for nearly $6MM but not getting much ROI - 0.5 WAR before through late August. Then the trade goes down, and Hill comes over for slightly less than what Johnson was making. Hill arrives hot and stays hot; in less than 190 games, he racks up 6.1 WAR.
To sum up:

2010 - $2.35MM for 4.1 WAR
2011 - about $5.75MM for 2.0 WAR
2012- $5.5MM for 4.6 WAR.

Over three seasons, that's $10.6MM for 10.7 WAR - not too shabby.

I was originally lukewarm to a Hill extension. I felt like they would be better off letting it ride for 2013 and take their "winnings" with a second baseman aged 31 for just 5.5 million in 2013. Then after 2013 make him a qualifying offer if he has at least a 3 WAR season and shows that he has found some consistency. If he turns it down, fine...you get a draft pick, and you have Matt Davidson on the way to man 3rd and move Prado to second....OR you can slide Pennington over to 2b if Didi's bat has developed enough to give him an every day job. If Hill accepts it, you might overpay a little bit for his age 32 season in 2014, but only if he is a sub 3 WAR player, and then you are not comitted beyond 2014 and avoid the dreaded second base cliff. You also give Davidson and Didi another year to develop.

BUT.....that course of action would probably put Hill in quite the sour mood for 2013, as the players hate those qualifying offers. (At least according to Brad Ziegler on Twitter) Based on what happened this year, my guess is next year you will see more players accepting the qualifying offer. But they still hate them. And since the D Backs are focused on creating a certain chemistry with their Gritty players, it's consistent that they wouldn't want to take that route with Hill.

Subsequently, while looking at comps, it's fairly easy to see who set the market value, and why the D Backs feel strongly they have a pretty good deal relative to the market Below is through age 30. Phillips played his age 30 season in 2011, Hill in 2012



Phillips signed a 10 year, 98 million deal in 2008 off season. He is signed through age 36, or 2017. (he is 1 yr. older than Hill) and his salary the next 5 years is 60 million total. (starting with 10 m in 2013, and going up 1M each year to 14 M in 2017)

Hill is signed of course through 2016 for a total of 40 million. The avg annual from here on out is 2 million less, and one less year of obligation in 2017, and Hill is a year younger.

So this contract looks alot better than the one Phillips is signed to if I pretend the low dollars being paid in 2013 weren't already in the bank. But even if you just look at ages 32-34, it's pretty comparable to the Phillips deal, and there is a year less commitment (and 14 million less guaranteed dollars). So if you buy into Hill = Phillips then this is a good deal for AZ, (or just a bad deal for the Reds...I don't know)

that course of action would probably put Hill in quite the sour mood for 2013

Don't you want "gritty" players in an ornery mood and playing with a chip on their shoulder?

I am all in favor of working to motivate your team members and giving them a great work environment, but I think contract extensions are an area where whether it makes the player happier should be weighted at nada, or less than nada.

If Aaron has to play through a qualifying offer year, he probably won't be happy, but he certainly won't be less motivated. He will have every reason to keep working out as hard as possible until he's a free agent.

The Snakes just gave him a massive amount of security, and that both makes him happier and saps motivation out of all but the most driven employees. Perhaps to make it to the level of success Aaron has achieved is evidence of his unflagging drive to be the best player possible, and I would never worry about offering an extension to that mental type.

You know what, I changed my mind. I just spent the weekend playing poker with the OKC Thunder, and I'm going to stop arguing that professional athletes don't deserve the money they have paid. Russell Westbrook, wow!

Come to Casino Arizona Aaron my Irish/Anglo brother and we'll celebrate your new contract in style with a high stakes game, as high as you want.

So Aaron Hill has been better than Brandon Phillips? I would have never, ever guessed.

[3] Shouldn't that be $13.6M (not that it changes your point)